Here we have two teams heading in opposite directions. The Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox were supposed to be battling for the top of the AL East, instead one is at the top and the other is fighting to stay out of the cellar. It makes sense that to this point, the Sox have gone 5-1 in the season series, outscoring the Jays 41-17.
This series will be contested from Monday, July 17, 2017 through Thursday, July 20, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. Monday's clash is being shown live on ESPN.
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Pitching Matchups
The Red Sox will activate Eduardo Rodriguez off the DL to start on Monday. That’ll be a welcome sight: a fresh arm. E-Rod was having a very strong season before he was injured.
On the year, Rodriguez was 4-2 with a 3.54 ERA and 1.148 WHIP in 11 games, spanning 61 innings. He stepped up with David Price on the DL and Rick Porcello slumping. Boston will look for him to pick up right where he left off. To do so, he’ll have to reverse his fortunes against the Jays. He’s 1-3 with a 6.35 ERA against Toronto.
The Jays starter on Monday has had some past issues against the Sox, too. He allowed them to score six runs on him in April.
Despite that rough outing, Marcus Stroman has been the Jays best pitcher this year and, thus, he’s been the subject of a few trade discussions.
He’s had his struggles this year, but he’s thrown three very good starts in a row and is 9-5 with a 3.28 ERA. He also leads the team with 112.1 innings. He hasn’t been a great strikeout pitcher, but his walks and homers allowed are down, leading to a very strong FIP only slightly above his ERA.
As the series progresses, the teams will transition from young, talented arms in Game 1 to veterans in Game 2 with J.A. Happ against Doug Fister.
Happ was knocked around a bit in his last start. Granted, that came against a Houston team that knocks around everyone. Before that, eh had five straight quality starts and he’s pitched remarkably well in the last month with a 2.27 ERA. Overall, he’s just 3-6, but does has a 3.54 ERA. He’s got a 2.89 ERA in his career against Boston since 2012.
As for Fister, he’s the definition of a fill-in starter. He’s heavily reliant on his sinker. He’s no longer the pitcher he once was. His velocity has dropped and he relies on impeccable control to succeed. When that control is gone, so is his success.
Fister took a no decision when he faced them a couple weeks ago, pitching okay.
In Game 3, Aaron Sanchez will get his second start since coming off the DL. He got the win in his first start, going six strong innings. He’s the best pitcher on the Blue Jays roster when healthy and was a Cy Young contender last year. The question is just how deep will they let him go in his second start back?
With Drew Pomeranz getting the start on the other side, this could be one of the most interesting matchups of the series.
Sanchez is a question mark, but the best talent on the Jays. Pomeranz is a question mark who has been lights out lately.
At 9-4 with a 3.75 ERA, Pomeranz has put together a nice season. He had a 5.29 ERA after May 14 since then, he’s allowed more than two runs just twice in 11 starts.
The series will finally wrap up on Thursday with Chris Sale pitching for the Red Sox.
The lefty is the frontrunner for the Cy Young Award and has been virtually unhittable. He followed his All-Star game start with a 7.2 innings dominant outing against the Yankees, striking out 13.
The Jays haven’t announced their starter for the series finale, but there’s no doubt that whoever it is will far well short of Sale’s 11-4 record, 2.59 ERA and 0.887 WHIP. Look for Sale to potentially get to 200 strikeouts on Thursday, he’s just nine short and has produced 13 double-digit strikeout games to this point.
Betting Trends
So, while the Red Sox have the better lineup, bullpen and—to this point—rotation, there’s one thing that Toronto does have going for it: more rest.
While it’s the Jays that will be traveling for this series, the Sox had a double-header against the Yankees on Sunday. That came immediately after a 16-inning loss the game before.
There’s no doubt that the Sox will be tired and the bullpen will be depleted even with some roster moves. That could mitigate some of the advantages for Toronto. The Jays now just need to not led them off the hook. They need to get to the pen early on Monday and Tuesday and further exhaust the pen.
Another element at play here is the trade deadline. We’ve already seen movement with the Cubs adding Jose Quintana and the Nationals adding a couple bullpen arms. The Sox will not be standing pat and the Jays could sell a few pieces themselves.
Names to Remember
The Sox offense has picked up the pace with Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Andrew Benintendi all swinging well. Hanley Ramirez is swinging better lately, too. Add in Dustin Pedroir and Xander Bogaerts just seems like over kill, but the team does have issues at catcher and third.
Boston finally parted ways with Pablo Sandoval after a terrible tenure in Beantown. That leaves third base wide open. The team really misses Travis Shaw who is having a great year in Milwaukee. For now, Tzu-Wei Lin is getting a look at the hot corner and fellow prospect Sam Travis is back with the big club.
The two 23-year olds are worth keeping an eye on. Travis has a .348 OBP in 17 games with four doubles. Lin has a pair of triples and provides bottom of the order speed. He’s 14-for-45 since his promotion.
Lin and Travis are solid depth players, but the Sox would be better served with a true third baseman, making the Todd Frazier rumors even more intriguing. He may be the player to watch by the end of this series.
Third base is also the position to watch for the Jays. Josh Donaldson is a much better answer than Lin, Travis or Frazier, but the All-Star third baseman is batting .190 over his last 23 games and has just one home run in that time. He’s looked better since the break, however, and Toronto needs his bat thumping in the heart of the order for this lineup to have a chance to upset Boston in this series.
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