The top two teams in the AL East square off in what could be an offensive showcase. The Red Sox lead the majors in runs and have the highest batting average, while the Orioles have clubbed the fourth-most homers. With a pair of struggling starters on the hill, runs could be plentiful.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The front runners in the AL East meet for just the second series of the season when they play four at Camden Yards. The Orioles were happy to complete a losing road trip with a series victory in Cleveland as they head home for a major challenge. The O’s have just five wins in their last 13 games but took two of three from the Indians over the weekend as they look to get back on track. The recent stretch started with three losses in four home games before going 4-5 on their road trip. Baltimore is in the red 4.05 units on the moneyline over those 13 games.
The teams met in Boston during the second week of the season with the O’s taking two of three by scoring nine runs in each of their victories. Sox starter Joe Kelly got the win in the finale of that series by taming the O’s in a 4-2 win. The teams cashed the over twice in their first series and the over is 13-4-2 in Boston’s previous 19 games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Joe Kelly (2-0, 6.30 ERA) racked up an impressive eight strikeouts but struggled with location in his last outing. He allowed nine hits and five runs in just 4.2 innings of work and took a no-decision in a game the Blue Jays won 7-5. Kelly also walked three batters and burned through 94 pitches to record 13 outs. He was brilliant in his first outing since a stint on the disabled list, holding the Indians to one hit in 6.2 innings on May 21, but wasn’t nearly as effective Friday.
Kelly labored with a 9.35 ERA in three starts before going on the DL. He lasted five innings giving up seven hits and two earned runs in a win over the Orioles on Apr. 13 in one of those games. He carries a 2-2 record and 5.10 ERA in six career starts against Baltimore.
Mike Wright (2-3, 5.05 ERA) was staked to an early 3-0 lead Friday in Cleveland, but couldn’t make it hold up and settled for a no-decision in a game the O’s eventually won. He allowed three runs on six hits and was yanked after just 4.2 innings. It was his shortest outing of the year as a starter.
One of Wright’s two wins came in his opener against the Red Sox, though he was far from good. Backed by a nine-run explosion, Wright went the minimum five innings giving up four runs on five hits for his first career win over the Sox. In two starts against Boston, Wright owns an 11.25 ERA surrendering three homers and 11 hits over eight innings.
LIVE BETTING
With one long hitting streak out of the way, it’s time to focus on another. Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts extended his streak to 22 games with a single Sunday in Toronto and now owns the second-longest hitting streak in the majors after teammate Jackie Bradley Jr.’s 29-game tear, which was snapped last week.
During his streak, Bogaerts is hitting .398 with 13 multi-hit games and 22 runs scored. He’s lifted his average from .309 to an American League best .351 and has tossed in five of his six home runs over that 22-game span. He’s hit safely in 34 of 36 games overall, raising his average nearly 150 points. His performance at the dish is a major reason why the Sox lead the majors in runs scored per game, team batting average and OPS.
QUICK PICK
The Sox offense has feasted on pitchers like Wright this season, drubbing back of the rotation starters while leading the bigs in runs and batting. The O’s, meanwhile, have been exciting at the dish as well, banging out 69 homers entering play this week, the fourth-most in baseball. With a couple of struggling starters taking the hill, this has the makings of a shootout and will be decided by the bullpens. If that’s the case, give the edge to the O’s, whose relief corps sports a 2.50 ERA, second-best in the majors behind only Kansas City.
MLB Odds: Baltimore 7, Boston 5
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