With increased expectations comes a bigger chance of disappointment. Following their breakthrough in 2015, plenty of eyes were on the Houston Astros, whom many pegged as the AL West favorite. It’s still very early, but the Astros are off to a sluggish start.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Entering the weekend there was only one team in the major league’s that hadn’t won consecutive games this season. If you guessed the Houston Astros, you would be right. Following Wednesday night’s loss to AL West rival Texas, the Astros had the fourth-worst mark in baseball and were just one game better than the last-place Minnesota Twins.
Things looked like they might be turning around last weekend when Houston took two of three from the Tigers to register its first series win of the young season, but the Astros lost the first two games of a three-game set with the Rangers to fall five games back. After being a most profitable bunch last year, it’s been the opposite in the early going this season. The Astros are down 6.81 units on the moneyline entering the weekend.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Boston’s Clay Buchholz (0-1, 5.74 ERA) is coming off his best start of the year after tossing 6.2 scoreless innings against the Blue Jays on Monday. He allowed six hits while striking out two and walking two but didn’t factor into the decision. It was a welcomed outing for the Sox and Buchholz, who was torched for 10 runs over his first two starts.
The right-hander threw a gem in his only previous start at Minute Maid Park, firing a complete game three-hit shutout with 12 strikeouts in 2014. Overall against the Astros, Buchholz is 3-0 with a 1.38 ERA and 39 strikeouts across 32.2 innings of four starts.
Although Mike Fiers (1-1, 6.48 ERA) was staked to a five-run lead in the fourth inning of his last outing, he surrendered three homers to make the game close. He lasted 5.2 innings giving up seven hits and four runs to earn the victory over Detroit.
Fiers has allowed 22 hits and 12 earned runs in 16.2 innings this season covering three starts. He’s allowing 11.9 hits per nine innings and opponents are hitting .302 against him, so there is room for improvement.
LIVE BETTING
The biggest problem for the Astros at the start of the baseball season has been their pitching. Houston is last in the AL with a 4.81 ERA and nearly five runs allowed per game. Ace Dallas Keuchel has lived up to his title, but the rest of the rotation has struggled, combining for a 5.72 ERA in the games not started by Keuchel.
The Astros were hoping to have Lance McCullers back in the rotation by the end of April, but that is not likely to happen now. The young right-hander started the year on the DL and was scratched from his last scheduled rehab start. That leaves the rotation in flux behind Keuchel and Colin McHugh, who’s been good outside of one ugly start. Until the rotation gets some help or the guys figure it out, those outings could be an adventure.
QUICK PICK
The Red Sox could sure use another reliable starter if they want to contend in the competitive AL East. Actually, they’d take one reliable starter at this point. Their multi-gazillion dollar man David Price was roughed up Thursday, Joe Kelly is on the disabled list with a shoulder injury and Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t recovered from his knee problem. It’s time for Buchholz to step up.
He did in his last outing, showing flashes of why the Sox were, and still are, high on him. And he’s owned the Astros over his career, too. Buchholz has never lost to Houston, going 3-0 in four starts, and his numbers across 32.2 innings are staggering. If he faced the Astros every game he’d have a collection of Cy Young Awards and probably have the trophy named after him.
MLB Odds: Boston 5, Houston 2
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