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In what could be a preview of the ALCS, the Boston Red Sox will wrap up a three-game series on the road on Sunday night against the Houston Astros. This could very well be a rubber match given the relative strengths of these two teams. Houston’s still got the better record, but Boston is trending better right now.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros haven’t won a series since beating the Rangers to open the month of June. They’ve gone 0-2-1 in series since that time.
Houston’s mini-slump has a lot to do with an injury-riddled rotation, but the offense has come and gone, too. The team scored 13 in their Wednesday win, but managed just three runs in the first two games of the series against the Rangers on Monday and Tuesday.
Few teams can matchup with the Astros’ offensively. The Sox have a good offense, too, but they haven’t shown the pop. Nevertheless, in the month of May, these two teams were one and two in runs scored in baseball. Houston is No. 6 and Boston is No. 17 in June.
The Astros weak spots right now are Carlos Beltran and Nori Aoki. Marwin Gonzalez, Evan Gattis and Jake Marisnick off the bench all have OPS+ numbers at or above 110. The team has options. Derek Fisher just got the call with Josh Reddick’s injury and he started off strong with a homer in his debut.
If homers become the main factor, the Astros are certainly in an advantageous place, though they’ve got speed, OBP and clutch hitting, too.
As for Boston, Jackie Bradley Jr.’s been hot for a while now, erasing an ice-cold start and Mookie Betts is swinging a great bat right now. His power is picking up which certainly helps add an extra dynamic to the order.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
David Price is slated to get the start in this primetime showdown. Price hasn’t been pleased with his performance to this point in the year.
After a rough first season in Boston, the second season got off to a delayed start due to injury. Now that he is pitching again, the results are just as lackluster.
The veteran southpaw looked rusty in his rehab appearances in the minor leagues and has had trouble locating since his return to the Sox. He has now made four starts with the only successful one coming against a struggling Orioles team. He went seven innings of one run ball in that game. Since then, he’s allowed nine runs on 12 hits and eight walks in 11 innings. He’s also allowed three home runs in those two games.
Price has historically been a slow starter in his career. His April ERA is the highest of any month. From there it drops month after month before a slight spike in September. Due to his injury, he’s still in April mode.
Overall, Price is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA and 1.217 WHIP. Given his BABIP numbers, homers and walks, his FIP is 5.82. In his career, he’s 4-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in seven starts against the Astros.
The Astros will counter Price with a question mark of their own.
With nearly their entire rotation on the disabled list, Joe Musgrove is suddenly a senior rotation member, having made 11 starts this year and 10 last year.
Overall, Musgrove is 8-9 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.308 WHIP in his big-league career. Those numbers are a bit below average, but serviceable for a back-end arm. This year, he’s struggled a bit more, averaging half a walk more per game and a higher opponent batting average.
Like the rest of the rotation, Musgrove has spent some time on the DL this year. His last start was his first since getting back, going 4.2 innings, allowing two runs to the Rangers. He threw just 75 pitches, but will go deeper on Sunday.
LIVE BETTING
In the late innings, both Boston and Houston have strong pens to hold a lead, but in a tie game late, the edge should go to the Sox. They’re hotter overall, but their pen is stacked in the late innings.
Craig Kimbrel is back to being the best closer in the game. He’s recorded 18 saves and has allowed just three runs on eight hits in 29.2 innings. That’s an ERA of 0.91 and a WHIP of 0.438. He’s striking out 17.3 per nine innings, that’s nearly two batters an innings.
On top of that, Joe Kelly and Robby Scott each have sub-2 ERAs in 28.1 and 16.1 innings respectively.
For the Astros, Ken Giles is a good closer, but he’s not Kimbrel good. Still, he’s got 16 saves and a respectable ERA and WHIP. Chris Devenski is the difference maker. He’s a right-handed version of Andrew Miller and can be used in a variety of situations to get key outs.
Will Harris is another lights out option. While the Sox have the better quality late, the Astros boast strikeout rates north of 10 per nine innings from six of their current crop of relievers.
QUICK PICK
The Sox are trending better than the Astros right now, but it’s hard to trust Price until he shows he’s back to form.
Look for the offenses to be the key storyline here until the bullpens take over late in the game. This game should be close, but take the Sox to squeeze out a victory given their better play over the last week and their lights out back end of the pen.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Astros 5
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