It’s been a rough go of it for the defending World Champion Royals as they enter their series with Boston a sub .500 team. Boston is a difficult opponent, but the Royals will look to make a statement this series and will need a win in the pivotal middle game of this three game set on Tuesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Kansas City has struggled. It lost five straight series before the weekend and couldn’t even manage to get back on track against the lowly Braves.
Perhaps the team is dealing with a World Series hangover. Either way, the Red Sox are in a good position entering this series.
Boston is now tied atop the AL East after winning seven of its last eight games. The Red Sox have also been one of just five profitable teams to bet on this season with a cumulative moneyline of $741.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This is a battle of offseason acquisitions with David Price toeing the rubber against the Royals’ Ian Kennedy.
Price was the gem of the free agent market, but hasn’t lived up to the contract. His ERA is 6.00 while allowing a league leading 32 runs, but the Sox have still managed to win with him on the mound; he’s 5-1.
Price’s struggles are a surprise. He’s still striking people out in bunches, leading the AL with 12.2 per nine innings. His walk rate is up a bit at 2.4, but it’s still reasonable. Perhaps the biggest difference for the southpaw is his BABIP. He’s allowing 9.6 hits per nine innings, up nearly two over his career average.
While the overall numbers aren’t great, look for Price to put together a strong outing. He’s coming off his best start of the year, striking out 12 in six and two-thirds against the Astros. He allowed only one run. He also has a 1.93 ERA in six career games against KC.
As for Kennedy, he’s been a solid performer so far in the KC rotation. In seven starts, he’s 4-3 with a 3.25 ERA and 1.105 WHIP. Unlike Price, his hits per nine innings is actually down nearly two runs over his career norm. You can expect some regression for Kennedy, particularly against a strong Boston offense.
The righty has only faced the Sox once in his career, allowing six runs in six innings. That isn’t much of an indication, however, as he’s a much different pitcher now as a 31-year old. More telling, however, may be his terrible last outing. He allowed seven runs in six and a third against New York on May 12.
LIVE BETTING
Boston has scored at least six runs in its last seven games, averaging better than 10 runs a game in that span.
In the month of May, Boston owns a .941 team OPS and is hitting .325 while slamming 25 bombs, nearly two per game. It’s ridiculous to think any team can keep up that torrid pace and the Royals do have a strong starter Tuesday along with a well-respected bullpen, but Boston is firing on all cylinders.
David Ortiz is swinging like he’s 30, not 40, and slick fielding centerfielder, Jackie Bradley Jr., is amongst a starting lineup with seven players posting an OPS+ of at least 100. The team has five players with at least five home runs, including Ortiz with 10. They’ve also got six batting over .300, with Xander Bogaerts at .340.
Kansas City showed itself as a dangerous baseball team with the bats in last year’s postseason, but have scored just 50 times in their last 13 games. They’re also without Mike Moustakas.
QUICK PICK
The Royals still have a talented bullpen and a very strong defense, but that’s not enough if you’re not hitting and your starting staff has been questionable.
Kennedy has been a bright spot for the Royals after most pundits questioned the signing in the offseason, but don’t look for him to be able to do much more than slow down this freight train of a Boston offense.
Meanwhile, without much offensive contributions outside of Lorenzo Cain and Eric Hosmer, the Royals don’t have enough to keep up. Look for Price to begin turning his season around starting Tuesday night.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Royals 3
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