The collection of weekend games comes to a close on Sunday night with a showdown between two historic teams, the Red Sox and the Dodgers in the finale of a three game set. Both teams are trying to make a run at the top spot in their respective divisions.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s hard to understand why the Red Sox aren’t running away with the AL East based on the roster, but the pitching has held them back.
Most recently, the Sox dropped a 5-4 game to the Mariners after heading into the bottom of the eighth with a four run lead. Price—who takes the hill on Sunday—started the inning, but newly acquired lefty specialist Fernando Abad failed in his first chance, giving up a homer to Robinson Cano.
It’ll be interesting to see if that tough loss has a lasting impact on Boston. The Sox have already dropped eight of their last 12 games.
As for the Dodgers, they’re playing some pretty good baseball right now. They’ve been playing at a .580 clip since the start of May and are 24-14 since June 17. More recently things have slowed a bit as the Dodgers are 8-7 since the All-Star break, but given how bad the Giants have played in that time, they’re making up ground in the NL West.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Neither team has announced their probable starters for Sunday night, but for the Red Sox, Sunday would be David Price’s spot in the rotation.
The season hasn’t gone according to plan for Price who signed a massive contract in the offseason and is just 9-7 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.248 WHIP through his first 23 games in a Red Sox’s uniform.
It’s been a bumpy road for the 30-year old southpaw in his first season in Boston, but he’s starting to get back on track.
His last start was very good, at least until he got into the eighth inning. He held Seattle scoreless through the first seven innings. Eventually he got hit with four earned runs, though two came in after he left the game.
Despite the struggles in the eighth, he pitched very well for seven a start right after pitching eight scoreless against the Angels.
Spending his entire career in the American League, mostly in the AL East, Price has only faced the Dodgers once, allowing just one unearned run over seven innings of work.
As for the home town Dodgers, their starter is still very much a mystery. Los Angeles continues to try and piece together a rotation battered by injury. The list of injuries includes Clayton Kershaw, Alex Wood, Bud Norris and Hyun-jin Ryu.
The start could go to Brandon McCarthy whose made just six starts himself this year, coming off injury. He’s been good, going 2-2 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.023 WHIP though command has been a bit off and his walk rate is elevated as a result.
LIVE BETTING
Highly touted prospect Andrew Benintendi got the call to the big leagues before Tuesday night’s game and got his first two at bats in the game.
The 21-year old outfielder was part of plenty of trade deadline speculation thanks in part to his .312 average and 52 extra base hits in the minors, split between Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland.
Nothing is a guarantee with young prospects—just ask the Astros following the slow start by Alex Bregman. Still, if Benintendi proves a more set answer in left-field for the Red Sox, that makes this lineup all the more frightening for opposing pitchers. It’s already the best in the game according to runs scored.
The added depth for Boston may have come at just the right time. First baseman Hanley Ramirez is having a strong year and hit another home run on Tuesday night, but then proceeded to injury his wrist falling down the dugout steps following the game.
Ramirez has a .805 OPS and is tied for fourth on the team with his 14 home runs. He’s also delivered 62 RBIs, more than anyone on the Sox not named Ortiz, Betts or Bogaerts.
A DL stint for Ramirez could mean more playing time for Aaron Hill at third with Travis Shaw sliding over to first base. Perhaps a more interesting option would be a promotion for minor league second baseman Yoan Moncada. He’s recently been seeing time at third as the 21-year old out of Cuba is in the midst of a dynamic season. He’s hitting .201 with 48 extra base hits and a .927 OPS split between Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland. He’s been on a similar trajectory as Benintendi. Having two uber prospects take on significant roles at the big league level in the midst of a pennant chase is certainly risky, but the talent is hard to ignore.
One thing Moncada offers that Benintendi doesn’t—at least not as much—is speed. The former has 44 steals in the minors. As a team, Boston is just slightly above average in steals, but a Moncada promotion could improve that aspect.
While the speculation around the two young studs is fun to dream on, the truth is, even without them and with Ramirez sidelined, the Red Sox offense is stacked. David Ortiz is playing like he’s in his 20s again while the killer B’s who actually are in their 20s are playing like superstars.
On the flip side, the Dodgers have interesting drama of their own. They just sent down Yasiel Puig to Triple-A following another disappointing season. The deadline acquisition of Josh Reddick made that possible. Reddick is a great defender in right and has a nice bat to add to the order while Corey Seager continues to put up numbers in his rookies season and Justin Turner remains red hot.
QUICK PICK
This is an interesting matchup. Price is still an ace and will be on the hill for the Red Sox, but the Dodgers are playing at home where they’re 33-20.
Los Angeles is also averaging two-thirds of a run more per game than the Red Sox since the start of the second half. That may not sound like a lot, but it’s important to note considering how dominant the Boston offense has been all year and how crucial it is to the success of this team.
Another crucial part is the bullpen which gets Craig Kimbrel back in the ninth. That allows both teams to have a truly elite closer to shut the door if they have the lead going into the game’s final frame.
Overall, the mentality of the Sox following the rough late game loss to Seattle is troublesome as is the health of Ramirez. Meanwhile, the Dodgers could get a boost following the demotion of Puig who’s had his share of well-documented teammate issues.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 6, Dodgers 5
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