One of the most storied rivalries in all of baseball will write another chapter Saturday afternoon when CC Sabathia leads the Yankees into battle against Boston’s Steven Wright who put forth one of the more surprising first halves any starting pitcher has ever had in the history of the game.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The first couple months of the 2016 season were glorious for the Red Sox. They mashed their way to the division lead and looked to be an unstoppable force. Unfortunately, the bats slowed a bit and the weak link that’s been their starting pitching could no longer be masked. As it is, John Farrell’s squad went into the break 11 games over .500 and up $19 overall for baseball bettors. They currently sit two games in back of Baltimore for the division lead, and are +180 underdogs to overtake them in the standings and win the AL East come the season’s end.
These are not your older brother’s Yankees. New York wrapped the first half of the season up at 44-44. Not surprisingly, they’re a little better or a little worse than league average in just about every major statistical category. They average 4.2 runs per game (#21) and rank No. 15 in the league in stolen bases. On the pitching side of things, they rank No. 4 in striking opposing batters out (777), but have only gotten a grand total of 38 quality starts (#18). Where the club excels is in the back end of the bullpen, but the starters haven’t been able to routinely build the bridge to their dominant arms.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Making start No. 18 of the season will be knuckler Steven Wright whose 2.68 ERA at the break is far and away the best of any Boston starter halfway through the season. That said, his last three outings weren’t anything to get excited about as he allowed 24 hits and 12 ER over the course of 15.2 combined innings of work. Two of those outings did however come against the Rangers who possess one of the better offenses in the game. Wright has been at his absolute best on the road where his ERA drops to 1.88 compared to 3.49 when at Fenway. He stymied NY over nine complete innings in a start at Yankees Stadium back on May 8 and is 3-1 against them lifetime with a 1.33 ERA and .181 batting average against.
It’ll be CC Sabathia’s turn to take to the hill in this one with the hefty lefty looking to turn the page on four straight poor starts. The big man looked to have turned his career around from the end of April to the middle of June, but he’s been ripped by the Rockies, Rangers, White Sox and Indians in his last three starts for 30 hits and 21 ER over just 23 combined innings. New York has split his six home starts where his ERA jumps up to 4.41 and batting average against to .270. He’s yet to throw at Boston this season, but for his career stands 12-12 with a 4.47 ERA and 1.32 WHIP. This will be his 33rd career start against the Red Sox.
LIVE BETTING
There’s no way Wright is going to baffle the Yanks’ bats like he did the first time he threw at them in this venue back in early May. Wright was in a groove back then, but the regression fairies have already started to hamper his play heading into the break. CC has also reverted back into being the gas can he’s been for the better part of the last three seasons.
With that the case, I expect both of these offenses to rule the proceedings, especially early. NY really found its offensive groove at the tail end of the first half of the season, while Boston is capable of blowing up at a moment’s notice. Look for some crooked numbers to his the board early - Hit the first five innings over!
QUICK PICK
I’m expecting both offenses to make quick work of each starting pitcher with relative ease. If the Yanks can’t get to Wright this second time around in their own house, shame on them! Regardless, Boston’s bullpen is a mess right now while NY’s is still the lone advantage it has over most teams. Should it get to Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and then Aroldis Chapman with the lead, it’ll be lights out baby!
MLB Odds: Yankees 7, Red Sox 6
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