The Red Sox and Mariners meet up for the third game in a four game series on Wednesday. Boston took the series against Seattle at Fenway and will look to put themselves in position for a repeat on Wednesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Boston grabbed hold of the top spot in the American League East and then proceeded to drop seven of their last 10 games, allowing Baltimore and Toronto to both pass them in the standings.
The Sox will continue a west coast swing in Seattle and bring a 23-21 road record into the series.
Seattle is two-games above .500 at home, making it an even matchup by the numbers even if reputation—particularly on offense—indicates otherwise.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Rick Porcello was a bust for the Red Sox last year, but he’s quietly put together a very strong season for Boston in 2016.
Porcello actually leads the American League in wins, going 14-2 in his 21 games. While the Sox’s dominating offense is certainly a large part of that record, Porcello’s pitched well, too. In 135 innings, Porcello has posted a 3.47 ERA and 1.111 WHIP.
The 27-year old right-hander is coming off a complete game victory against the Angels where he gave up two runs and five hits, a nice bounce back after allowing five runs in less than seven innings against Minnesota.
In his career against the Mariners, Porcello has pitched to a 3.73 ERA in 10 starts with a 6-3 record.
Seattle’s starter on Wednesday is projected to be Hisashi Iwakuma.
Iwakuma has been a rock in this rotation since coming over from Japan in 2012, but this year’s been his worst in the majors as his stuff continues to decline.
Now 35-years old, Iwakuma’s home run rate and hits per nine innings have both shot upward, but so has his walk rate. Even with the declining stuff, Iwakuma is still 11-7 in his 21 starts thanks to an improved Seattle offense.
Overall, he’s pitching to a 4.21 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in 130 1/3 innings.
While the current regression is concerning for Iwakuma, his past record against Boston hasn’t been great either. In fact, he’s allowing 21 earned runs in 22 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Mariners offense went cold against the Cubs over the weekend—at least until Chicago turned to Brian Matusz to make a spot start Sunday night. That brought Seattle’s offense back to life in a hurry. Nelson Cruz, Robinson Cano and Dae-ho Lee each delivered two-run homers against him.
The ability to exploit Matusz aside, the Mariners entered Sunday having scored the second fewest runs in the American League since the All-Star break. Boston, meanwhile, has outscored everyone.
Cano, Cruz and Kyle Seager gives the Mariners a trio of dominating hitters, but the rest of the order has generally gone silent since the break.
The Sox, on the other hand, just keep chugging along. It’s unbelievable how this team is able to continue to perform even through individual slumps, but when Brock Holt in left is your weakest link and he’s still hitting .254 with a .715, that’s telling. It is quite unlikely Iwakuma’s struggles against Boston end on Wednesday.
David Ortiz continues to defy time while Mookie Betts has joined him in the 20-home run club. Every current starter on the team has an OBP of at least .325 while seven are getting on base more than 34-percent of the time.
QUICK PICK
Boston is on the road, but statistically the Red Sox hold the advantage in every facet of this game.
To start the game, Porcello has strong numbers against the Mariners and is coming off a complete game victory. He won’t go nine on Wednesday, but the Boston bullpen even without Kimbrel and Uehara has enough with Brad Ziegler, Matt Barnes and Junichi Tazawa to put together a few solid innings.
The offense is self-explanatory at this point for Boston and with Iwakuma’s home run and walk rates both up, the Sox are the worst team for him to face. They offer patience and pop.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Mariners 4
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