The American League East race is basically a battle between the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees as it was in the early 2000s, but much like they did in 2008 when they came out of nowhere to go to the World Series, the Tampa Bay Rays remain lurking in the weeds. With a chance to show what they got on national television and gain ground in the division race, the Rays will host the Sox on Wednesday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Being the same division, the Red Sox and Rays are no strangers. Going into the series, they’ve already played each other 11 times with Boston winning six of the meetings and outscoring Tampa Bay by nine runs overall.
The Rays hosting this game, however, is significant. Tampa Bay is 29-25 at home while Boston is 27-29 away from Fenway Park. While that’s all great, the Rays are just 3-6 in their last nine home games. While the beat the Brewers on Sunday, they scored just two runs after being shutout in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday.
With the Tampa Bay offense struggling, Boston is in position to take advantage though the Sox have seen their offense underperform all season. Nevertheless, they’ve averaged 6.7 runs over the last six games.
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After a mismatch of Chris Sale opposite the rookie Austin Pruitt on Tuesday, the odds will even up a bit on Wednesday with the Rays turning to Jake Odorizzi, fresh off the disabled list, to oppose right-hander Rick Porcello.
Porcello’s last start at Tropicana Field came a month ago. He took the loss in that game, but tossed eight-innings, allowing only a single run on six hits. He struck out seven in the outing.
That was a strong outing for the 28-year old and reminiscent of the starts he put up in bulk last year. This year, however, Porcello has been average at best. He’s 5-14, leading the AL in losses. His 174 hits allowed is also a league leading numbers.
Overall, his 4.70 ERA and 97 ERA+ puts him on par with your average, run of the mill, mid-to-back-end starter. That’s, of course, still serviceable, but a far cry from what he did last year.
While Porcello’s best start of the year came against the Rays, the other two against Tampa Bay this year were far less productive, giving up 13 runs in 10.1 innings.
Much like Porcello, Odorizzi has been having a down year, too. When he was healthy, he was 6-4 with a 4.47 ERA. His 5.74 FIP, however, showed that even those mediocre numbers were due to luck. In 94.2 innings, Odorizzi has allowed 23 home runs and 35 walks.
In his rehab assignment at Single-A Charlotte on Friday, he allowed a pair of runs in three innings. Despite that, he did strikeout six while walking none, at least showing solid command of the strike zone, if not great command within the zone.
While Odorizzi’s command and durability will be questions for Wednesday night, he has proven himself to a be a reliable starter over the course of his career.
That’s the positive side. The negative side is, the last time Odorizzi pitched against the Sox, he allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings of work. When he’s been on the mound this year, the Rays are 7-11.
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The Boston offense is streaky, but has more ways to score than the Rays who can outslug the Sox, but are much more of an all-or-nothing club, leaving them susceptible to the big strikeout, something Porcello—even in his less-than stellar season—can produce.
Meanwhile, in the bullpen, the Sox added some reinforcements with Addison Reed to set up Craig Kimbrel. That backend basically forces this into a seven-innings game. Beyond that, however, Joe Kelly remains dominant and others are lined up ready in the middle frames.
Tampa Bay tried to add at the deadline, too. Lucas Duda’s bat has already paid off, even though he’s as streaky as the rest bringing power and little else.
Adeiny Hechavarria was added to sure up the beleaguered infield defense, but that meant shipping out Tim Beckham who is now raking for the Orioles.
In the pen, the Rays picked up Sergio Romo and dealt for Steve Cishek. Cishek is a former closer and familiar with the Sunshine State from his days with the Marlins. Romo is also a former closer, but was coming off a terrible season. He’s looked good in a tiny sample for the Rays.
There are options in the back end for Tampa Bay, but they pale in comparison to Boston’s.
QUICK PICK
The Boston offense has gotten a spark since Eduardo Nunez and Rafael Devers joined the fold. Nunez is batting .417 while Devers is hitting .350. They’ve combined for 18 games played with six homers, 17 RBIs, three steals and 13 runs scored.
There is still more offense in this team, too. Since the All-Star break, Dustin Pedroia is raking and Hanley Ramirez has shown some pop, but the rest of the regulars outside of the newbies have room for growth.
Regardless of that, we have a Boston offense that’s been surging the last week and a Rays offense that has disappeared.
In all, Boston has several ways they can scored—even if they’ve had some issues at times this year. On the other hand, the Rays are a homer-or-bust type of a team.
In the end, take the Sox to edge out the Rays given the latest trends. Porcello threw well last time in St. Petersburg, Odorizzi is coming off a lackluster rehab showing and the Sox bullpen is deeper. With Tampa Bay’s recent home struggles, it all adds up.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 7, Rays 6
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