Two of the American League East favorites will wrap up a three game set on Sunday as each look to set the tone for the season. Last year, the Sox took the season series against the reigning division champ, winning 10 of 19 meetings.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
As of Thursday, both teams sit at .500 on the young season with the Red Sox at +$10 while the Jays off back-to-back losses to the Rays are at -$16.
Few teams had more pronounced home/road splits last year than the Jays. Rogers Centre is a hitter friendly park and their potent lineup is perfect there, but it was actually the pitching that performed better at home.
In 2015, the Jays were 53-28 at home and actually a sub .500 team on the road. They only scored nine more runs at home, but allowed 86 fewer.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Sunday is the Red Sox sixth game of the season. Although they’ve not announced the rotation, we should be kicking off the rotation once again with David Price taking the mound at the Rogers Centre against his former team.
The biggest concern for this Red Sox team is the rotation, but that concern doesn’t extend to Price. He’s a proven commodity within the AL East.
In his nine year career—all but half a season of which was spent in the AL East—Price has a .652 winning percentage, 3.09 ERA and 1.132 WHIP.
In his Boston debut, Price pitched well, allowing two runs and on five hits, striking out 10 in six innings against the Indians.
While the Jays possess a powerhouse lineup, Price has had success against them, going 16-2 in his career with a 2.41 ERA and 1.064 WHIP over 145 2/3 innings. In 15 career starts in the Rogers Centre, the ace southpaw checks in an eye-opening 11-1.
Tasked with keeping pace with Price is his former teammate: Marco Estrada.
Estrada is coming off the disabled list after a retroactive stint to start the year. The 32-year old right-hander had a breakout season last year in Toronto going 13-8 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.044 WHIP. Can he maintain that success or is he more of the career 3.95 ERA pitcher?
Last year, Estrada’s hit per nine inning rate was a league low 6.7. Some of that’s skill, but a lot is also luck as his BABIP number was down. Still, Estrada showed he could shut down the opposition at times last year, but he’s got a career ERA near 5.00 versus Boston.
LIVE BETTING
Josh Donaldson suffered a calf strain on Wednesday that resulted in him leaving the game. The reigning AL MVP homered earlier in the game, but was removed in the seventh after he couldn’t run out a ground ball.
Donaldson and the team categorize him as day-to-day and don’t think the injury is serious. He should be back in there well before Sunday.
Of course, while Donaldson is the reigning MVP, Jose Bautista is the face of the Jays. He’s had a number of ABs versus Price with plenty of success. In 49 at bats, Bautista has 16 hits, including three doubles and five home runs while hitting .327 with a 1.108 OPS.
No Boston player had nearly as many at bats against Estrada though David Ortiz would be a good bet in props. He looks good so far in his final season. He seems plenty motivated and has already popped a couple homers. He’s hit a pair of homers off Estrada in his career in just nine at bats.
QUICK PICK
On the strength of Price—even with his struggles against Joey Bats—the Sox have the edge, even in Toronto.
Estrada is coming off the disabled list to make this start and could be a bit rusty, let alone the likelihood of a less impactful season as a whole this year.
We know the Jays’ offense is strong, but we saw the Red Sox’s offense step up and be nearly as good in the second half last year despite little fanfare at the time. Travis Shaw, Brock Holt, Hanley Ramirez and Ortiz have come out of the gate hot and Mookie Betts could break out this year as an MVP candidate atop the order.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 5, Blue Jays 3
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Boston Red Sox versus the Toronto Blue Jays will commence Sunday, April 10, 2016, at 1:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
