The head-to-head battles of these two teams have been tight all season long and that should continue over the weekend, including in this middle game of a three game series, the last between these teams in Toronto this year.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Toronto is the third stop on a three city road trip that includes Oakland and San Diego, that’s a lot of travel for the Red Sox and could impact Boston in the series.
While both teams have to deal with Saturday being a day game after a night game, the Red Sox may have a harder time with the short turnaround given the recent travel schedule.
As for Tuesday, Boston’s also just 5-7 over its last 12 games and with their home/road splits so in favor of playing at Fenway, the hurdles keep adding up for the Sox.
Of course, Toronto’s struggled to take advantage of the Sox and O’s struggling lately in order to put some distance between them and the division. They’ve lost four of six now, but returning home for the Boston series is a nice pick-me-up.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Right now, Eduardo Rodriguez and J.A. Happ are lined up to make the start on Saturday though neither team has announced their rotation for the series.
Based on each pitchers’ season numbers, it’s easy to jump on the Blue Jays’ bandwagon on Saturday given the 17 wins and 3.34 ERA for Happ, but the recent trends actually point away from the veteran southpaw and in favor of the youngster.
E-Rod is coming off a near no-hitter that he took into the eighth inning. That start lowered his ERA since the start of July down to 2.73 in nine outings. Of course, there were a couple tough outings in there, but in general, he’s throwing the ball really well.
Meanwhile, in this battle of the southpaws, Happ hasn’t thrown a quality start in his last four times out. He lasted just 2.2 innings in his last start and has given up 14 runs in 21.1 innings in those four games.
Over the larger sample size, things turn back in Happ’s favor as he’s 17-4 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.181 compared to Rodriguez’s 2-6 record, 4.83 ERA and 1.305 WHIP. Nevertheless, in baseball it’s far more about the what have you done lately.
Despite being divisional foes, both starters have faced the opposition just once this year with Rodriguez allowing five runs in 5.2 innings and Happ giving up just one in seven.
Expanding the sample size a bit, E-Rod is 1-2 with a 8.27 ERA in his career against the Jays while Happ is 4-3 with a 3.81 in his career against the Sox.
LIVE BETTING
Edwin Encarnacion leads the league with his 110 RBIs, but Boston stands alone with two batters having driven in more than 100: David Ortiz and Mookie Betts. Both have also slammed 30 home runs.
Toronto can match up to Boston’s duo with Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson. Donaldson only has 92 RBIs, but he’s hit 34 home runs to Encarnacion’s 36. On top of that the Blue Jays have Michael Saunders and Troy Tulowitzki with over 20 bombs while Jose Bautista would be there if not for injuries. He’s played just 91 games, but had 17 bombs. He’s healthy now to further lengthen the lineup.
As for the Sox, they now have Jackie Bradley Jr. hitting ninth in the order despite an .845 OPS and 22 home runs himself. That just goes to show how deep of an order the BoSox have.
In general, look for plenty of runs with this game going back and forth. The Rogers Centre is anything but a premier ballpark, but it is very hitter friendly and we could see balls flying whether the roof is open or closed.
QUICK PICK
If you like offense, this is the matchup for you. Bank on plenty of runs and take the over on the total even after E-Rod’s near no-hitter and Happ’s strong season.
Overall, the difference maker in this matchup is the bullpen. The Blue Jays have a very good closer in Roberto Osuna and added Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit to set him up. The middle innings, however, are still light. The left-side is light, too, with Brett Cecil not getting it done. He’s already lost seven games. With Happ starting, we could see a few lefties come off the bench in key pinch hitting spots late against the pen.
For the Sox, Koji Uehara is betting worked back into the mix, adding to Craig Kimbrel and Brad Ziegler in the back end.
MLB Odds: Red Sox 8, Blue Jays 6
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