It was a nice run for the Milwaukee Brewers who spent a good chunk of the year at the top of the division. With the Cardinals now passing them, their last shot to get back in the division picture is over the weekend against the NL Central leading Chicago Cubs. After months of waiting the Cubbies are playing more like expectations. It’s a longshot for the Brew Crew, but a series win is a must to keep divisional hopes alive.
This series will be contested from Friday, September 8, 2017 through Sunday, September 10, 2017 at Fenway Park in Boston. The games on Friday and Saturday will be on national television with coverage by WGN on Friday night and MLB Network on Saturday afternoon.
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Pitching Matchups
The Brewers are sending their best to the mound in this series, looking for the edge. Jimmy Nelson starts the series off for Milwaukee. He’s on two-extra days’ rest as Craig Counsel lined him up for this Friday night showdown.
After Nelson, the Brewers will send Chase Anderson and Zach Davies to the bump on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Nelson is the Brewer’s best starter. He’s only eight strikeouts away from 200 and has taken a massive step forward. He’s 11-6 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.205 WHIP. His FIP is better than his ERA. His strikeout, walk and homer rates are all great.
The righty has delivered four straight quality starts and is coming off one of his best starts, allowing only three runs in seven innings against a hot-hitting Nationals’ club.
To match up with Nelson, the Cubs will look to a veteran right-hander who is 9-1 in his last ten games: John Lackey.
Like Nelson, Lackey threw seven scoreless frames in his last start though his opponent was a bit easier. Still, he has the home park edge. Lackey’s overall stats are mediocre, but he’s 7-6 with a 5.38 ERA at Wrigley Field. In the second half, he’s 6-1 with a 3.83 ERA.
For the matchup in Game 2, Anderson leads the Brewers’ starters in ERA. He’s 8-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 20 starts. He was great before going on the DL in June. He’s been less impressive in his last four games since coming off the DL.
Anderson allowed four runs—three earned—in his last start, going just 5.1 innings against the Reds. In his four starts since his injury, he has only one quality start. While all the numbers are strong for Anderson, the recent numbers are lackluster and the numbers in two starts at Wrigley are bad. He’s totaled nine innings this year on the road against the Cubs, allowing nine runs, eight earned, on 14 hits, four walks and three homers.
The Cubs haven’t announced the rest of the rotation for this series, but Mike Montgomery looks to be starting against Anderson.
Montgomery has split his time between the rotation and the pen. He’s 5-7 with a 3.38 ERA overall, but he has a 4.17 ERA as a starter.
The series wraps on Sunday with Kyle Hendricks and Kyle Davies battling. The two Kyles offer similar, good-but-not-great stuff with a huge dependency on command, movement and location.
For Davies, it’s a good thing he’s pitching on the road. He always seems to be in position for the win, going 16-8 with a 3.77 ERA overall. He’s 8-2 with a 2.10 ERA in 15 road starts. He was even good in his one start at Wrigley, going six innings and allowing two runs in the win. His other two games against the Cubs didn’t go as well, giving up eight runs in 12 innings at Miller Park.
Of all the Cubs starters, it’s Hendricks who has the best ERA. He’s 6-4 with a 3.29 ERA in 20 starts. Just like last year, he doesn’t have the sexy name or great stuff, but he’s keeping the runs off the board and that’s the goal.
Over his last five starts, Hendricks has notched five quality starts, allowing eight runs in 32.1 innings.
Offensive Comparison
The Cubs’ young bats propelled the team to their first World Series title in a century a season ago, but those same bats have generally been underwhelming in 2017 compared to expectations. The obvious exception to that have been Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. The duo has done more than enough, particularly lately. Over their last 27 games, the pair have combined for 10 homers and 41 RBIs. In that same span, Rizzo has produced a 1.021 OPS with a .330/.412/.608 slash line. Bryant’s OPS is 1.059. He’s slashing .326/.462/.598.
While the overall numbers for the rest of the roster have left something to be desired this season, this team is the leading scorer in the second half, outscoring the Cardinals by 36 runs. They’re the second highest scoring team in the second half.
On the complete opposite side of the spectrum, the Brewers have scored the fewest runs in baseball in the second half. It’s no wonder the magic has started to wear off even as the starting pitching remains better than expected.
Milwaukee has tried to reinforce itself throughout the year. Pick-ups like Stephen Vogt and Neil Walker have been good, but the bats of Travis Shaw and Eric Thames couldn’t maintain their early season pace.
Of course, there’s still plenty of pop in the Milwaukee lineup. This team can make you pay if you miss your spots, but for now, the Cubs are much more reliable at the plate.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs pitching has slumped, but the Cubs and Brewers are neck-and-neck when comparing second half ERAs. Chicago’s bullpen, overall, is stronger, but Milwaukee has Core Knebel in the ninth and he’s been nearly unhittable all year.
Over a smaller sample size, the Cubs acquisition of Justin Wilson hasn’t worked well. Brian Duensing has struggled in the last month and Pedro Strop has allowed seven runs in his last 10 appearances.
Wade Davis is closing the door in the ninth and matches up with Knebel, though Knebel’s overall numbers are better. In fact, he’s notched 11 saves in his last 14 games with a 0.66 ERA and just seven hits allowed in 13.2 innings. He’s struck out 18 in that time.
The support for Knebel has been spotty. Josh Hader was throwing well, but the scouting reports may be catching up to the youngster. Jeremey Jeffress, however, was a great acquisition. He struggled in Texas, but is straightening himself out in Milwaukee.
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