The Chicago Cubs have come out of the break hot and finally look like the dominate team everyone expected coming off their World Series title. They team will look to keep the good times rolling as they return home to take on their rivals, the St. Louis Cardinals, in a best-of-three weekend set. St. Louis currently sits only a couple games back of the Cubs who themselves are now just a couple games out of the top stop in the NL Central.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 21, 2017 through Sunday, July 23, 2017 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Friday’s clash is being shown live on MLB Network to those outside the local markets. Meanwhile, the games on Saturday and Sunday will also be broadcast nationally on Fox Sports1 and ESPN respectively.
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Pitching Matchups
It’s been the starting pitching as much as anything that’s kept the Cubs in the middle of the pack in the NL standings. The offense hasn’t live up to its potential either, but the rotation is the key.
Out of the break, the Chicago arms have turned in better outings, leading to a nice start to the second half. Can that continue?
On Friday, the Cubs will turn to Jake Arrieta to keep things rolling. The right-hander held his former team, the Orioles, to two runs and four hits in 6.2 innings in his last start.
Even with that latest start, Arrieta’s ERA is still 4.17 and his FIP is 4.25, making him a basically average pitching through his first 19 starts. Chicago needs more from the ace.
Arrieta has faced the Cardinals twice this season, allowing four runs in six innings back in May and holding St. Louis to one unearned run over six frames in April. He’s 8-3 against them in his career with a 2.00 ERA in 15 starts. He’s also 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA in three July starts.
The Cubs haven’t announced the rest of the rotation officially, but Jon Lester and Jose Quintana figure to get the other two starts.
Lester, like the rest of the starters, has had a down year. His 4.07 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 115 innings makes him still above-average and the best of the bunch. The veteran southpaw has proven himself in big games over the years and Chicago will be playing in big games for the rest of the year after digging themselves into a hole.
The lefty strung together four quality starts to end June, lowering his ERA to 3.69 during the run, but July started rough. He allowed six runs to the Rays in five innings on Independence Day and then didn’t even make it out of the first before giving up 10 runs—four earned—on six hits, three walks and a pair of homers against the Pirates a week later.
On the positive side, the Cubs ace did going seven strong against the Braves on Monday night, allowing one run on three hits and one walk. He struck out six.
As for Quintana, he too has been an underperformer this year, but looked very strong in his Cubs debut. In his first start for the North Siders, he went seven innings, allowing just three hits while striking out 12. That lowered his cumulative ERA to 4.20.
Save for a couple terrible starts in May, Quintana’s numbers would be right in line with what he normally puts up. Going forward, one should expect the mid-3 ERA arm that’s been a model of consistency since making his debut in 2012. That includes his Sunday start.
To counter the Cubs starters, the Cardinals have Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha lined up for the weekend series.
Martinez’s matchup opposite Arrieta should make for great TV and a fun pitcher’s duel. Martinez will pitch well. The All-Star right-hander has a 3.36 ERA and 1.143 WHIP. He’s struck out 133 batters in 123.1 innings and has allowed only 95 hits. He does walk his far share and can be teed up from time-to-time, giving up 15 homers. Still, he’s a reliable arm. Unfortunately, he’s not a lucky one. He’s just 6-8 this year, taking a loss or no-decision in seven quality starts.
On the complete other side of the spectrum, Wainwright gets all the run support. He generates some of it himself having driven up 10 runs for the second straight year.
Wainwright is 11-5 despite a 5.08 ERA. He leads the team in wins, but his ERA is also nearly a run higher than the next worst starter’s ERA. It’s typically best to use other stats to evaluate a pitcher, but in Waino’s case, wins are useful. He knows how to win. There’s no other way around it. He’s 14-9 against Chicago.
In Sunday’s primetime showdown, Wacha will try and repeat his last start. He tossed a three-hit shutout against the Mets, lowering his ERA to 3.71.
It’s easy to forget this is still a very young starter. The 26-year old has been a bit up-and-down, but things are clicking for him now. He’s allowed only five runs in 30.2 innings over his last five starts.
After taking care of business against the Orioles and Braves, the Cardinals rotation should provide a bigger test for a Cubs’ offense that looks back in form after the All-Star break.
Who's Hot?
The Cubs are full of underachievers in the rotation and at the dish. It’s an easy story to tell about a team with a World Series hangover. We’re back to the underachieving Cubs of yesteryear.
That’s the easy narrative, but it doesn’t fit into how the Cubbies have played since the break. Don’t look now, but several the team’s young hitters are starting to click.
Anthony Rizzo, for instance, has hit five homers in 14 July games. Willson Contreras has belted four bombs while batting .380 and getting on base at a .436 clip. Javier Baez looks like the spark plug he was at the end of the year last year. He’s hitting .390 in his last 13 games. Addison Russell is hitting again. Kris Bryant is, well, Kris Bryant—though his injury could put a damper on things.
On the mound, Trevor Rosenthal has been dealing for the Cardinals. The former closers looking like a legit back-end of the bullpen option again. He’s struck out 11 batters in 6.2 innings in July, allowing just a single run on two hits and two walks.
Offensively, the Cardinals are getting most of their production this month from lesser known players like Paul DeJong and Tommy Pham those two are hitting .333 and .373 respectively with seven combined homers and 19 combined RBIs. Meanwhile, Randal Grichuk, Stephen Piscotty and others have been basically non-existent.
Who's Not?
While most of the Cubs’ players have been clicking, there are a few exceptions. One such exception is Ben Zobrist.
A Joe Maddon favorite, Zobrist has lost playing time, he’s just 7-for-41 in July and has a .227 OBP in those 11 games. Other than him and, maybe to a lesser extent, Jon Jay, there’s nothing to really criticize. Maybe you can point to some recent struggles for Justin Grimm, but he’s deep on the bullpen depth charts.
For St. Louis, Seung-hwan Oh has hit another rough spot, much like Grimm, except he’s been struggling in much more high leverage situations.
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