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The rivalry continues in the mid-west. The Chicago Cubs have played better in the second half and have a three-game division lead, but they’ve been unable to close the door. Both the Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals remain within striking distance of the division lead. A three-game series has the potential to put the Cards neck-and-neck atop the division with the Cubbies. Likewise, a sweep could be all she wrote for St. Louis in 2017.
This series will be contested from Friday, September 15, 2017 through Sunday, September 17, 2017 at Wrigley Field in Chicago. Friday's clash is being shown live on MLB Network while the game on Sunday can be seen live on TBS.
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Pitching Matchups
For their last series in Wrigley, the Cardinals have their three healthy veteran starters lined up to make the starts. Carlos Martinez starts on Friday with Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn following on Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Martinez harnessed his inner Steve Carlton by notching his 200th strikeout of the season in his last start. The team’s ace is 11-10 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.180 WHIP in 189 innings. He’s also thrown two shutouts. One of those shutouts came against the Padres on September 4. He followed that performance with a two-run, six innings start against Pittsburgh.
The young right-hander hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a game since July, that’s eight consecutive starts. While he may not always be on top of his game, he nearly always will keep the Cardinals in the game.
To counter Martinez, the Cubs will look to a former Cardinal in John Lackey. Lackey is the anti-Martinez. He’s got diminishing stuff and has a 4.65 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. His FIP is 5.26 as he leads the league in homers allowed with 33.
Nevertheless, the 38-year old has a nearly identical record to Martinez at 11-11. He’s also 6-2 since the start of July. Chicago is 9-2 since then when he takes the mound. Lackey’s been doing a better job keeping the ball in the yard. He’s allowed nine homers in his last 11 games, not great, but a much better ratio. While he has had a poor performance or two in that span, he’s generally been a reliable arm.
Moving to Saturday, Wacha matchups up against Kyle Hendricks.
Depth is traditionally an issue for St. Louis and a questionable bullpen makes that a noticeable issue, but he’s thrown at least six innings in three straight starts now, including an eight-inning shutout against the Pirates in his last start. At 12-7 with a 3.99 ERA, Wacha’s numbers show a solid, reliable starter. He’s had some ups and downs, but is on an upswing right now. He’s also pitched better than those overall numbers based on his peripherals.
On the other side, Hendricks’ FIP is worse than his ERA, indicating he may have outproduced his peripherals and may not have actually thrown as well as this 6-5 record and 3.35 ERA would indicate. The right-hander missed several starts due to injury, but has put up the consistently best numbers of any starter when he’s been on the mound.
The series wraps up on Sunday with Lynn matchup up against Jose Quintana.
Until this year when Quintana started garnering off-season trade talks, these two pitchers fell in a similar category: ultra-reliable arms that generally go unnoticed by continually put up top-end numbers.
Well, this year, Quintana’s regressed while Lynn’s gotten even better even after missing last year with Tommy John surgery.
Lynn has thrown well in two starts against the Cubs this year, but doesn’t have a win to show for it. He’s also coming off a four-run outing, but he’s still 11-7 with a 3.01 ERA. One can be concerned about his much higher FIP driven by low strikeout and higher than expected walk rates, but he’s consistently out-performed his FIP over his career.
As for Quintana, the Cubs’ lefty had a quality start in his only start against St. Louis this year. He’s also coming off a good outing against the Mets. Quintana’s been good—but not great—since heading to the North Side. He’s 6-3 with a 3.88 ERA.
Who's Hot?
Perhaps unfair to classify him as ‘hot,’ but Juan Nicasio is at least an important new addition to the Cardinals’ bullpen. In his first two games, he’s produced two saves as he’s been thrust into the closer’s role. He’s handled the job well so far and looked good in the process.
Given the ups-and-downs of the pen to this point and the injury to Trevor Rosenthal, Nicasio’s strong start for the Red Birds has been a huge blessing. Seung-hwan Oh has shown better in the setup role this year and others like Tyler Lyons, John Brebbia and others slot better in the middle innings. In Lyons’ last 12 games, he’s totaled 11.1 innings, allowing only a single run.
Offensively, most of St. Louis’s lineup has been swinging well. Tommy Pham and Paul DeJong have been this season’s surprises and are both still swinging well.
Jose Martinez has been the latest hot bat. The outfielder is batting .419 in his last 24 games. He’s hit four homers and five doubles while driving in 14.
Flipping over to the Cubs, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are perpetually hot. They’re super stars. That’s how it works, but it’s to a whole different level for Rizzo right now. The first baseman is batting .357 with a 1.092 OPS in his last 27 games. He’s hit 11 doubles and five homers in that time. Other hot bats include: Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber and Javier Baez.
Happ and Schwarber lead the Cubs in homers over the last 30-days with seven each. Baez has four diggers and a .343 OBP.
Who's Not?
Typically, the Cardinals offense goes as Matt Carpenter goes. We saw early in the year, the now first baseman thrives in the lead-off spot, but cannot handle a run-producing role. When at the top, he serves as a catalyst. Right now, he’s more of a road block.
In his last 20 games, Carpenter is batting .179 with 24 strikeouts. Thanks to 20 walks and four homers, he’s still been a reasonably productive hitter, but his low average has been a detriment. With this team playing so much better recently, it’s hard to find too many underachievers. Randal Grichuk has power with five homers in his last 79 at bats, but he’s struck out 23 times and has a .262 OBP. That’s less a slump than him being who he is.
On the other side of this matchup, the Cubs don’t have too many slumping hitters. Jason Heyward may be the weakest right now, but he is, essentially, what he is.
On the mound, there are concerns. Hector Rondon has allowed five homers in his last 11 games, lasting just 9.2 innings. He’s allowed 12 hits and eight runs in that time. Felix Pena and Justin Grimm have also been homer prone.
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