MLB Odds - Cardinals at Phillies Series Preview

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It’s been a rough month for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re now 10-22 in their last 32 games after dropping a weekend series to an Orioles team marred in nearly as big of a slump as them. With that opportunity to get back on track gone, the Cardinals will now travel to the City of Brotherly Love in hopes that the Philadelphia Phillies and baseball’s worst record can help put them back on the right path.

This series will be contested from Tuesday, June 20, 2017 through Thursday, June 22, 2017 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. Thursday’s series finale will be available on national television for those outside the local markets on MLB Network.

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Pitching Matchups

The season got off to a strong start for both Mike Leake and Michael Wacha, but much the same fashion as the rest of the team, things turned downhill fast.

Now, both are coming off rough starts and the Cardinals will be happy to win one of the two games before turning the ball over to Carlos Martinez in what they hope to be a rubber game, if not a chance for the series sweep.

To counter the Cardinals’ starters, the Phillies will look to their veteran leader in Jeremy Hellickson on Tuesday and then to Nick Pivetta and Aaron Nola the next two days; two talented young arms with inconsistent performances thus far.

By the numbers, the Cardinals should take Game 1. Leake is 5-6 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in 86 innings of work while Hellickson is 5-5 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.325 WHIP in 77 innings.

After a red hot start, Leake’s numbers have been steady rising. He’s allowed 17 runs in his last four starts, spanning 24.2 innings. He gave up six runs in the first two innings of his last start, but did settle down to go four scoreless after that.

Hellickson gave up six runs in his last start in five innings. The game prior to was okay against the Cardinals, throwing a quality start. To allow just three runs in six innings, he performed a tight-rope act, allowing 10 hits and a walk.

Moving on to Game 2, the Cardinals will give Wacha another chance to hold on to the rotation spot. There are rumors that a poor outing may lead to a demotion to the pen.

He’s gone five innings just once in his last five starts, sporting a dismal 8.86 ERA in that time and putting a huge strain on the pen.

While Wacha is struggling, Pivetta is coming of the best start of his young career. The 24-year old rookie right-hander went seven shutout innings against a solid Boston lineup, allowing the Phillies to win the game 1-0 and salvage a game in the home-and-home series.

Prior to that start, however, Pivetta lasted no more than five innings in each of his first six starts while sporting a 5.52 ERA. After his latest performance, the ERA is down to 4.46, but the Phillies are still just 2-5 in games he’s started.

To steal a win in the series finale, Nola does have an uphill battle. He’s 3-5 with a 4.76 ERA. His FIP is nearly a run lower so there is a bit of bad luck involved, but Nola has been equally inconsistent. He went five innings in a mediocre start against the Cardinals last time he faced them, giving up three runs. He’s now allowed eight runs in his last 11 innings, but does have a few gems to his name this year, including an eight-inning, one-run start against the Braves and a seven-inning, one-run outing against the Pirates.

While Nola can dazzle, Martinez is much more predictable. He’s 6-5 with a 2.86 ERA and has a 1.049 WHIP while throwing 94.1 innings and striking out 10.2 per nine innings.

In his last two starts, Martinez has thrown 15 innings, allowing just a single run on eight hits while striking out 19. Nine of his last 10 starts have been quality outings, including a couple complete game shutouts. The last of those shutouts came against this same Phillies team.

Who's Hot?

The Cardinals have been bad. There’s no two-ways around it. They’re not getting much production anywhere up and down the order. St. Louis is in the bottom third in baseball in runs score.

They cannot get anyone going. Matt Adams went on a torrid pace after they moved him to Atlanta. Matt Holliday has had a great year in New York. Meanwhile, the entire Cardinals lineup is not living up to the backs of their baseball cards.

Lately, however, Dexter Fowler has been hitting well. In the last seven games, he’s 11-for-24 with four homers. Over the last month, he’s posted a .863 OPS. Interestingly, his uptick in production coincides with his move down to the second spot in the order.

Similarly, Matt Carpenter has hit well since moving to the leadoff spot. He’s 10-for-22 with nine walks in the last week. In 12 games atop the order, he’s hitting .405 and getting on base at a .528 clip. He’s clearly more comfortable in the top spot and not equipped for the heart of the order. As the No. 3 hitter, he’s batting just .226 though he has seen his power jump.

For the Phillies, there are less positives. Maikel Franco has had a good week. He’s 9-for-26 with five extra base hits. That’s an encouraging sign for a former big prospect who has struggled the last year and a half.

On the mound, the Phillies have a reliable arm in the pen. Pat Neshek has thrown 27 innings, allowing two runs, 18 hits and four walks. His ERA is 0.67 and over the last month, he’s appeared in 12 games, throwing 11.2 scoreless innings.

Who's Not?

Simple answer: Michael Saunders. The Phillies right-fielder is having a rough season. He’s batting .205 with a .617 OPS on the year and has been worse in the month of June. He’s trending in the wrong direction.

Saunders has played in 11 games this month, going 3-for-31 with 11 strikeouts. Sadly, he’s not alone. Cameron Rupp is hitting .152 during the month. Aaron Altheer has cooled down, too. He was the lone bat carrying this team for a long time. He’s hit four bombs in June, but has a .254 OBP.

As a team, the Phillies have scored the fewest runs in the NL in June and second from last on the year. The numbers on the mound are not much better.

The Cardinals have been without a clean-up hitter all year. The role has been filled often by Jedd Gyorko, but he’s struck out 15 times with a .613 OPS in June.

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