It was supposed to be the Cubs running away with the NL Central this year, but instead no team has taken the division by force. The Brewers have started to put some distance in the standings, but despite sitting under-.500, both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates are still within striking distance in the division as they get set for a three-game weekend set in the Steel City.
This series will be contested from Friday, July 14, 2017 through Sunday, July 16, 2017 at PNC Park in Pittsburgh.
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Pitching Matchups
Just when you want to count the Cardinals out, the surge back with a run to keep on the fringes of the postseason race. Much of that can be attributed to a solid rotation that just won’t let this team fall far enough out despite the efforts of the lineup, defense or bullpen.
Mike Leake gets the start on Friday and is followed upon by Lance Lynn and Carlos Martinez who will pitch Saturday and Sunday respectively.
Leake has been about has hot-and-cold as the Cardinals in general. He allowed eight runs in his last start, not even getting out of the fourth against the Marlins, but had thrown three straight strong outings, allowing six combined in 20 frames leading into that.
Overall, Leake has been more than serviceable. His 6-7 record show some of the ups-and-downs he’s exhibited, but compared to his 3.12 ERA and 1.149 WHIP, it more so paints a picture of a team that’s provided little support by the position players and the pen.
Throughout the weekend series, the Cardinals will throw starters with ERAs in the mid-3s or lower. Lynn’s ERA is 3.61, Martinez’s 3.40.
Lynn hasn’t been as good compared to his FIP of 5.19. He’s allowed 20 homers and 38 walks in 102.1 innings. His command hasn’t been as good as before the Tommy John surgery, but he’s still a well above-average starter.
This year, Lynn has faced the Pirates twice. He held them scoreless in seven back in April. In that game, he allowed just three hits. Then, in June, he lasted 5.2 innings, giving up seven runs, including a pair of homers.
The Cardinals wrap the series with their best arm. Martinez tossed an inning in the All-Star game. The 25-year old ace is 6-8 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. He’s struck out 128 in 116.1 innings. He’s got a 3.59 career ERA in 18 games against his division rivals in Pittsburgh. This will be his first start against them this year.
To counter Leake on Friday, the Pirates will turn to one of their biggest potential trade chips in Gerrit Cole.
Much like Leake, Cole has also had a rather inconsistent season. He’s 7-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.300 WHIP. The 26-year old allowed two runs in six innings against the Phillies in his last start of the first half and has allowed two runs or less in four of his last five games, giving up five runs in 26 innings during those four games.
The exception in that stretch, however, was a bad one. He gave up seven runs in 5.1 innings against the Giants. When Cole is on, he’s great. When he’s not, he can get hit around.
Cole allowed seven runs three times in the month of June, but allowed just a single run in his other three June starts. The question for Friday: which Cole will take the mound?
Pittsburgh hasn’t announced the rotation for the rest of the series. It should be Ivan Nova and Jameson Taillon in some order. Nova is 9-6 with a 3.21 ERA. Taillon is 5-2 with a 2.73 ERA. The rest of the rotation is well below average.
Who's Hot?
There’s no hotter player in baseball than Andrew McCutchen right now. A couple months into the season people were ready to right off the former MVP, but over his last 23 games, he’s batting .407 with a .510 OBP and 1.239 OPS.
McCutchen’s season OPS of .909 is above his career average while his 135 OPS+ is right in line with the perennial All-Star’s typical stat line.
Since the beginning of June, McCutchen has slammed nine of his 17 homers and has gone 50-for-123. He’s also drawn 22 walks with only 17 strikeouts.
Beyond McCutchen, Gregory Polanco is also swinging better. He’s had a rough year, but has hit five homers in the last 24 games with a solid .274 average.
On the mound, Felipe Rivero has allowed just a single earned run in his last 10 appearances, going 12.2 innings and striking out 17.
St. Louis has seen the offense pick up over its recent hot streak. Tommy Pham specifically is batting .311 in his last 25 games with six homers despite 28 strikeouts in 90 at bats.
Paul DeJong has been more than adequate at second in place of Kolton Wong as well. He’s hitting .345 with a team high eight homers in the last 30 calendar days. Matt Carpenter has a .439 OBP in that same time as he sets the pace atop the order.
Who's Not?
While a former All-Star has dominated for the Pirates, their current All-Star has regressed. Josh Harrison represented the team in Miami, but over his last 22 games, the second-baseman is batting .207 with six extra base hits and 17 strikeouts.
Harrison hasn’t been alone in his struggles which is why the Buccos haven’t been able to make up more ground with McCutchen slugging.
David Freese is batting .155 in his last 21 games, Adam Frazier is hitting .187 in his last 23 and John Jaso has 17 strikeouts and a .222 average in his last 54 at bats.
On the Cardinals side of things, this team has played pretty well the last couple weeks, getting back even with the Cubs and within striking distance in the division.
They’ve made their most recent run despite a few players like Seung Hwan Oh who has allowed four home runs over his last month.
At the dish, Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty both continue to struggle, hitting .214 and .196 respectively in the last month.
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