Surprising a lot of people, the Colorado Rockies keep on rolling. Only the Nationals have notched a series victory against the team from the Rocky Mountains. The St. Louis Cardinals will try and become the second team to do so over the weekend, but it’ll be an uphill battle as the Rockies are dominating while the Cardinals have hit yet another bump in the road, dropping five of their last six as of Tuesday.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 26, 2017 through Sunday, May 28, 2017 at Coors Field in Denver.
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Pitching Matchups
Carlos Martinez, Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn are the unlucky Cardinals that’ll be asked to go to the mound at Coors Field in this series.
Coors is never a fun place to pitch and that’s particularly true with the Rockies having one of the strongest and deepest lineups in the National League.
Martinez is the ace of this staff, inheriting the role from Wainwright. The 25-year old right-hander is 3-3 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.145 WHIP over 57.2 innings spanning nine starts. In his last outing, he threw nine innings, taking just 93 pitches to do so, and allowed only two hits and a walk. Unfortunately for him, the Giants held the Cards scoreless, too, and St. Louis eventually took the loss in that game with Martinez coming away with the no-decision. Still, he pitched well enough to win. He’s now given the team five straight quality starts and has turned his season around after a few less-than-stellar outings in the first month.
Over his career, Martinez has faced the Rockies seven time, but made just three starts. He’s 2-0 overall, but has allowed 16 runs and 33 hits in 20.2 innings of work.
As for Wainwright, he’s starting to show signs of life after looking washed up in his first seven starts. His ERA topped out at 6.37, but has given up just one earned run in 13.1 innings over his last two starts, lowering that ERA to 4.81. His WHIP is still high as he’s been incredibly hittable. He’s also seen his walk rate jump from a career mark of 2.3 per nine innings to 3.7 in 2017.
The recent run of success, however, is encouraging. His past success at Coors is also a plus. Most visiting pitchers have terrible numbers in the high altitude, but Wainwright is 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA.
There are enough positives there for Martinez and Wainwright that they may fare well in this series, but Lynn could struggle. He’s been excellent this season and is 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA. He’s coming off a 10-strikeout game against the Dodgers and hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any game. He’s also limited the opponent to two runs or fewer in seven of his nine starts.
The downside here is the longball. Coors is a big park, but the ball flies and Lynn has allowed nine home runs including five in his last three games. He is 2-1 with a 2.30 in five career starts against the Rockies and has allowed just four runs in 20.1 innings at Coors.
The Cardinals rotation, provided they get enough run support, should keep the Red Birds in the series, but Colorado will have their two young studs to start this series with Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland starting opposite of Martinez and Wainwright. German Marquez will get the start on Sunday.
Senzatela brings a 6-1 record and 3.67 ERA to the hill for his start while Freeland is 5-2 with a 3.31 ERA. Both pitchers have reasonably low strikeout rates at 5.7 per nine and 5.6 respectively. It’s surprising they’ve had to find success at home given that as balls put in play tend to carry. Nevertheless, both rookies have sub-4 ERAs at home.
Senzatela and Freeland get most of the publicity, but Marquez has done well in his six starts, too. The 22-year old rookie is 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA. He’s allowed one run or fewer in each of his last three starts and four of his last five.
The Rockies rotation is young, but full of strong performers—at least in their small, early sample sizes.
Park Factor
Any game—or series—played at Coors Field must contend with the park factor.
The Rockies are continually ranked amongst the most prolific offenses and the worst pitching staffs, year after year. Their pitching is better this year, but it’s no coincidence that this team is routinely a better home team, though they’ve played better on the road than at home here in the early going.
Still, Marky Reynolds and Charlie Blackmon are raking at home. The first baseman is hitting .333 at Coors with a 1.127 OPS and nine of his 12 home runs.
Blackmon has 40 RBIs this year. That’s a staggering total from the lead-off hitter and goes to show both his power and the depth of this lineup as people have been on base for him to drive in even though he bats behind the pitcher’s spot.
Blackmon is batting .391 with a .432 OBP and 1.259 OPS at home. He’s slammed seven of his 11 homers at Coors.
Usually hitters enjoy taking swings at Coors, but Matt Carpenter and Yadier Molina have both been rather pedestrian in their past trips to Colorado.
Dexter Fowler, on the other hand, is a former Rockies player who has become a more complete player since leaving. Even so, he is a .297 hitter with a .396 OBP at Coors.
Key Players
Alert! Greg Holland has given up a run.
The Rockies closer has arguably been the most important free agent signing of the offseason through the first two months.
The former Royals’ closer is completely healthy and unhindered by the idea of pitching half of his games in Colorado. He’s already saved 19 games and has appeared in 20 games, throwing 18.2 innings.
Those numbers paint a picture of an incredibly effective closer, but also of a team that plays in a lot of close games. Holland has been crucial in this team’s turnaround as he shortens the game, providing a certainty in the end, allowing the rest of the pen to line up better and takes pressure off the starters as they only need to worry about a couple successful times through the opposing lineup.
The Cardinals’ key is Jedd Gyorko. He’s one of the more underrated players. He’s hitting .318 with a .934 OPS and is coming off a 30-home run season. While Carpenter and Molina are the team’s heart and soul, Gyorko just might be the best hitter. He’s hitting .312 with seven home runs in 27 games played at Coors Field.
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