Jon Lester will have a great shot at securing his fourth straight win and eighth of the season Sunday afternoon in Atlanta where the Cubs and Braves will put a bow on their three game weekend series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
In taking two of three at Philadelphia earlier in the week, Chicago moved to 19-9 on the road where they’ve made MLB bettors a cool $600 overall. Joe Maddon’s squad is just one of four teams to have already secured 19 road wins on the year. That only adds to an impressive resume that finds the Cubs owners of the best overall record in baseball at 41-17 ($1014). Chicago went into the regular season +500 favorites to win the World Series, and while that still remains true nine-plus months into the season, the odds currently sit at +300.
The Braves find themselves on the completely different end of the spectrum. While Chicago is the best team in the league, Atlanta is no doubt the worst having managed just 17 wins through 59 tries for a -$1778 overall return on investment. It hasn’t mattered where this team has played either, they’ve been flat out bad. The Braves are currently the only team in the league not to have already secured double-digit home wins (6-23, -$1624).
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Cubs’ pitching staff continues to impress, and one of the main reasons why is because of veteran left-hander Jon Lester. He’s 7-3 on the year and owns a 2.06 ERA through 78.2 inning pitched over 12 starts. Lester’s been lights out on the road where he’s compiled a 4-1 record and allowed just 27 hits and seven earned runs while racking up an impressive 23:6 K/BB ratio. Lifetime against the Braves, he’s 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA and .260 batting average against.
In playing .288 ball overall, it comes as no surprise to see the Braves overall pitching staff struggle. The starting staff is ranked No. 21 in quality starts and No. 19 in ERA (4.53). Aaron Blair has done absolutely nothing to help aid those numbers since getting called up. He’s 0-4 with a bloated 7.13 ERA and has walked more batters (21) than struck out (20) through his 35+ innings of work. He did however fair well versus Chicago earlier this season in allowing just two hits and 1 ER through 6 IP. That was however the first time the Cubs saw him, so things will likely play out a bit differently this time around.
LIVE BETTING
Kris Bryant has been on an absolute tear of late, and is a player you should target for props purposes in this match-up. He’s collected multiple hits in two of his last three games, and launched a two-run shot in the finale versus Philly that still might not have landed.
He’s punishing right-handed pitching to the tune of a .919 OPS and has hit nine of his 14 home runs for the year against them. Blair gave up three bombs in his most recent home start against San Francisco, and has been all over the place since showing well versus Chicago. If he’s wild again today, look for Bryant to make him pay.
QUICK PICK
The Braves surprisingly gave the Cubs a run for their money back in late April, and that’s something Anthony Rizzo will have likely field away in their memory banks. Though this is getaway day and a bigger series with Washington is on tap, the Cubs have exhibited a killer instinct all season in winning 14 of their 19 overall series and pulling off sweeps six times. Look for them to show up with Lester on the bump and cruise to yet another victory.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Braves 2
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