So far everything has gone according to plan for the Cubs. They own the majors best record and greatest run differential. They have also owned the Reds since the start of last season and swept a three-game set earlier at the friendly confines.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s been pretty much as expected for the Cubs at the beginning of the year. Maybe even a bit better. Widely picked among the so-called experts to at least reach the World Series, many pegged the Cubbies as the favorites to win it all in 2016. That’s a lot of pressure on club that hasn’t won the Commissioners Trophy since before it was named the Commissioners Trophy.
The Cubs began the season with three straight wins and captured eight of their first nine to open their much-anticipated campaign. That was the first hurdle. The next was a trip to three-time NL Central champ St. Louis at the beginning of the week. Chicago missed out on a series sweep by dropping Wednesday’s finale, but another hurdle was cleared. Now it’s off to face another division foe in the Reds, whom the Cubs have owned since 2015. Entering the series Chicago is 16-6 against Cincy since the start of 2015 and won seven of the nine games played at GAB last year.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Chicago’s Jason Hammel (2-0, 1.00 ERA) allowed just one run on five hits over six innings in Tuesday’s win over the Cardinals, He struck out six and didn’t walk a batter. He also delivered the key hit in the game with a two-run single and now has more RBIs than runs allowed. It took just 84 pitches for Hammel to get through his dominant outing before getting lifted for pinch-hitter.
Three starts have lasted 6.0 innings and required fewer than 90 pitches. Hammel also has 18 wins in 28 April starts over the last six seasons, the most wins in the month in the majors over that span.
Alfredo Simón (0-1, 12.15 ERA) skipped his last start with biceps tendinitis. He was given an anti-inflammatory injection and is expected to be ready. He’s struggled in his last few outings, perhaps a result of the injury.
After opening his second stint with the Reds with an impressive start against the Pirates, Simon got just five outs total in his next two. Over that stretch he surrendered seven hits and eight earned runs. Simon departed his Apr. 13 start in Chicago after recording just two outs. He allowed five runs, four hits to get tagged with the loss.
LIVE BETTING
Which is harder to believe: that a starting staff has pitched six or more innings in 14 consecutive games to begin the season, or that the same staff has driven in seven runs at the plate? That’s an average of an RBI by the No. 9 hitter ever other game.
Pitchers are supposed to be working their way to longer outings, and they aren’t supposed to be driving in the only runs in a winning effort. Chicago starter Jason Hammel accomplished both feats in his last outing, a thrilling 2-1 win over the St. Louis Cardinals on Tuesday. Cubs pitchers speak proudly of their hitting prowess, but in reality, they aren’t working at it any more than other teams, according to Hammel. They’re just good at it. To put the RBI total in perspective, the Cards are second with three runs driven in by their pitchers. The Cubs pitchers’ OPS as a group is .660. That’s better than the OPS of three NL teams.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs haven’t done much wrong at the start of the MLB season. Manager Joe Maddon’s “Try Not To Suck” mantra has definitely sunk in. It even pissed off some people in St. Louis, which I’m sure the Cubbies enjoyed. But the Cubs don’t need any peripheral motivation. They have the best team in the majors and they’ve proven it so far.
The batting averages aren’t where they need to be. Anthony Rizzo and Jason Heyward have struggled out of the gate and team has started to recover from the loss of Kyle Schwarber. But pitching wins titles and the Cubs have been nearly dominant on the hill. One of those responsible is Hammel, who continues his solid run against a shaky Reds offense.
MLB Odds: Chicago 7, Cincinnati 2
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