The Astros are well within reach of another postseason berth, but the road isn’t easy and doesn’t get easier over the weekend as they matchup with baseball’s best record and the reigning Cy Young Award winner in the middle game of a three game set on Saturday.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Astros are making a push right now. They were just a game over .500 heading into Friday, August 19 when they beat Baltimore 15-8. Since then, the Astros have been rolling. They’re 12-4 since that game.
The Cubs are still the cream of the crop, but they’re on the road. Chicago is still likely to be favored even away from home. That’s a part of the reason that despite the being nearly 40-games over .500, they’re only sporting a triple-digit moneyline.
The Cubs are 10-games over .500 on the road, but prior to this current road trip, Chicago did drop two of its previous three road series.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With Kyle Hendricks the Cubs’ pitcher du jour, it’s easy to overlook how good Jake Arrieta’s been in the second half.
Arrieta gets the ball on Saturday and brings a 0.955 second half WHIP and .159 opponent batting average into play.
Those numbers show just how dominant he’s been despite the 3.17 ERA in his nine second half starts. Overall, he’s having another fine year and boasts a league leading 16 wins. He’s 16-6 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.046 WHIP. He’s also leading the league in fewest hits allowed per nine innings at 5.9, right in line with his league leading number for a year ago.
The 30-year old right-hander has been just as hard to hit as he was during his Cy Young season, but his ERA is a full run higher due largely to more home runs and a much higher walk rate.
The walks are what could get the righty in trouble against Houston as the Astros have the power to hit one or two out of the park. He’s allowed two home runs in two of his last four games. Arrieta will just try to limit the damage, but walks don’t help the cause.
He’s had two bad outings in his last four starts and it’s no coincidence those came on the days he allowed the most homers and the most walks. On August 18, he walked seven Brewers, allowing five runs. He walked three Pirates on August 29 and allowed six runs in that game.
Arrieta did bounce back his last outing, holding the Giants to a pair of runs over six innings, walking just two in that contest. For the righty, his stuff is dominant enough in the zone. He just needs to avoid the free passes.
The Cubs will counter Arrieta with veteran right-hander Mike Fiers who’s a serviceable starter, but isn’t near Arreita’s class.
That said, he’s been better at avoiding the free paces than the reigning NL Cy Young award winner. He’s also managed to string together four strong starts, although he’s not typically able to get too deep in the game.
Fiers is generally a five or six inning pitcher so the bullpen will be involved in this game. Fortunately, there are plenty of options for A.J. Hinch to mix and match the final three or four innings together.
The key will be Fiers keeping the Astros in the game when he hands the ball off. He’s been okay this year, but the margin for error against the Cubs bats and with Arrieta pitching against him is small. He’s 10-6 overall with a 4.29 ERA and 1.349 WHIP driven by a hits per nine inning ratio nearly double Arrieta’s mark.
LIVE BETTING
The Cubs were hoping to have Pedro Strop back in the bullpen, but the right-hander suffered a setback in his rehab stint.
Nevertheless, the Chicago bullpen is starting to come together. Hector Rondon is back and helps provide a lockdown answer in the eighth leading into Aroldis Chapman in the ninth innings. With the two dominant backend hurlers, the Cubs now have effectively shorted the game to seven innings. Arrieta routinely gets into the seventh, leaving little chance for the Astros to try and break through against the middle of the pen.
On the other side, Fiers doesn’t go deep into games
Overall, these two teams are pretty close in bullpen ERA with the Astros’ pen putting up a 3.46 mark and the Cubs a 3.49 ERA. With that, look for the team that’s able to get ahead in the first five or six frames to take the game.
QUICK PICK
Given the strength in the pen for both teams, the pitching matchup to start the game becomes even more important which should hand the win to the Cubs.
With this game on the road, the Cubs shouldn’t be favored by too much so take advantage of that and back Chicago despite Houston’s recent hot streak.
The Cubs have a deep lineup top to bottom that’ll provide a challenge for Fiers. The Cubs will come out swinging and should against the hurler and can rack up the hits given Fiers’ batting average against.
Meanwhile, the Arrieta is a beast and has been particularly hard to hit here in the second half. The Cubs have a number of talented hitters, but the lineup is also young and can be exploited. Look for a lower scoring affair with Arrieta shutting down the Astros and the bullpens putting up dueling zeros on the back end.
MLB Odds: Cubs 3, Astros 2
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