Once Chicago grabs the division lead, it’s possible it never looks back. The Cubs would love for that to be the case this weekend when it travels to Miami for a four-game set. The Marlins don’t have too bad of a run-differential and have a nice offense, but their pitching has been an issue and the playoffs don’t seem to be in the cards this season.
Miami’s starters must be able to handle the Cubs offense, and Chicago will come in aiming for at least a split of these games, with three wins an ambitious yet realistic outcome if the Cubs play well.
This series will be contested from Thursday, June 22 through Friday, June 25, 2017 at Marlins Park in Miami, Florida. The Thursday contest will be televised on MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The Cubs will begin the series by sending Jake Arrieta to the mound. He is 6-5 this season with a 4.64 ERA. Arrieta has been inconsistent but boasts an elite strikeout rate and good control, so he should be bouncing back soon. The Marlins will send out Jeff Locke, who is 0-2 with a 4.58 ERA. Although his ERA is slightly better than Arrieta’s he is clearly the inferior starter.
In the second game, the Cubs will start John Lackey, who is 5-7 with a 4.98 ERA. Much like Arrieta, Lackey has good peripheral numbers and should improve. Jose Urena is scheduled to start for the Marlins. He is 5-2 with a 3.64 ERA but has a career ERA of 5.11, which is a worry.
On Saturday Chicago is expected to start Jon Lester. The team’s ace is 4-4 on the season with a 3.83 ERA. He has been really good the last two times out and will aim to flummox the Miami lineup. The Marlins hope to get a competitive start from Justin Nicolino, who is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA and was rocked for six runs in three innings last time out against the Nationals.
In the series finale, the Marlins will finale have the starting pitching advantage when they send out Edinson Volquez. He is just 3-8 on the year with a 4.19 ERA but has a solid strikeout rate and could be good in this one. The Cubs will send out Mike Montgomery. He is 1-3 with a 2.26 ERA and hopes to establish himself as a starter in this fill-in duty.
King At Leadoff
Anthony Rizzo isn’t a conventional leadoff hitter, as he has the slugging profile of someone more suited for the middle of the order. However, he was recently placed there by Cubs manager Joe Maddon, and has been unbelievable in the role.
In his seven plate appearances leading off a game, Rizzo has reached base six times, including three home runs.
Rizzo is batting .268 overall with 17 homers, 47 RBIs and a .927 OPS. It’s unknown how long Rizzo will stay atop the order. While he has been very productive in the role, he would also be valuable batting second or third to increase his chances at driving in runs. Either way, Rizzo is a key cog in a Cubs lineup that has underachieved this season and is looking to turn it around.
Chicago has rolled through quite a few different leadoff hitters on the season, with Rizzo the most successful of them thus far.
Player To Watch
Marcell Ozuna -- The Marlins’ outfielder has taken a step forward in his career, putting up some gaudy numbers this season. He is batting .330 with 19 homers and 52 RBIs and had the game-winning hit in a walkoff victory over the Nationals last series.
Ozuna leads Washington in batting average, homers, RBIs, on-base percentage and OPS this season and is one of the talented outfielders the Cubs starters must not let beat them. Miami doesn’t have as much depth as Chicago, so it will need to get some big games from its stars to have a shot at winning this series.
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