The Cubs can have a losing record from here on out and still post a 90-win season. That’s how good they’ve been at the start of 2016. Starter Jason Hammel has been just as good against the Brewers, going 8-0 in 11 career starts against them.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs ended the week with a 2-1 loss to the Pirates on Sunday, leaving them with two wins in five games to close out their homestand. Even with that hiccup, Chicago is off to a historic start with a remarkable 27-9 record through their first 36 games. Just three teams won more games than the 2016 Cubs over their first 35 and each went on to win the World Series, losing a combined one game in the Fall Classic.
Are the Cubs getting lucky? Not especially. Based on runs scored and runs allowed, their record through 35 games should be 28-7. Data available at other sites says Chicago’s record should be 27-8. In other words, the Cubs aren’t out-performing any of their fundamental indicators. And don’t blame a soft schedule for the success. Chicago’s 2016 opponents through Sunday had a combined .502 winning percentage. The Cubs have also gone 13-2 against the Pirates, Cardinals and Nationals and they’re 13-3 in road games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jason Hammel (5-0, 1.77 ERA) posted his seventh quality start in as many outings this season, holding the Bucs to one earned run over 6.2 innings in Friday’s 9-4 win. He surrendered eight hits and had season-highs of eight strikeouts and 103 pitches. He kept the Pirates in check until the sixth when they got to him for a pair of runs.
Hammel is prone to putting runners on base as his 1.20 WHIP indicates, so there is mild concern that there could be some regression. With his past success against the Brewers, it’s unlikely to come Thursday. Hammel is 5-0 with a 1.60 ERA in six lifetime starts at Miller Park and he’s 8-0 in 11 career outings against the Brewers.
Junior Guerra (2-0, 4.00 ERA) was efficient in his third start of the year. He threw six scoreless innings at the light-hitting Padres on Friday, allowing just two hits and striking out four. Guerra is making good on his first chance to start in the big leagues, winning each of his first two home starts.
The 31-year-old hurler flashes impressive stuff but is as inconsistent as one would expect a journeyman reliever to be. Blanking San Diego is one thing, shutting down the Cubs is another; Guerra will get his chance to do just that on Thursday.
LIVE BETTING
The Brewers hope to have Ryan Braun closer to full strength by the time the series gets underway. The left fielder missed starts on Saturday and Sunday because of a sore right wrist. Braun began feeling discomfort on Friday, when he went 0 for 3 to snap a 12-game hitting streak, but took an intentional walk to extend his on-base streak to 23 straight games. It’s the third-longest streak of his career.
Having Braun in the lineup against the Cubs certainly would help Milwaukee’s chances against the best pitching staff in baseball. Braun is a .338 career hitter with 23 home runs and 94 RBIs in 471 at-bats that span 121 games against the Cubs. He’s also the only current Brewers player to hit a home run off Hammel. In 23 at-bats against the Cubs righty, Braun has eight hits, including a pair of long balls and a double along with three walks.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs always have a large contingent of fans on the road and that will again be the case with their trip to Milwaukee. With the Brewers down and the Cubs the best in the bigs, expect Miller Park to revert to “Wrigley Field North,” as it was known in the early 2000s, when Cubs fans attended games in Milwaukee in droves. But more demoralizing to the Brewers than having fewer fans than the visiting team, is facing Hammel, who owns an 8-0 lifetime record in 11 starts against the Crew.
MLB Odds: Chicago 5, Milwaukee 2
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