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BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The ballgame between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will take place Sunday, July 30, 2017, at 2:10 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
Several playoff races are heating up as contenders add on to make a push in the season’s final two months. In the NL, the most interesting race is in the central where the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs are neck-and-neck. Both have already made acquisitions to illustrate they are all in. Sunday’s game wraps an important weekend series.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Since the All-Star break, the Cubs have gone on a run to bring them right up alongside the Brewers at the top of the division.
It’s no wonder the team is winning right now, the pitching has been much better, the starting staff has looked like the same one they had last year. The bullpen has been a strength all year and the offense is clicking now.
After a terrible first-half fraught with off the field issues and poor on-field performance, Addison Russell is batting .324 since the break. He, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo and Willson Contreras all have multiple homers.
In fact, Contreras has five homers and 15 RBIs is 10 games. He’s also 15-for-44 with three doubles. In addition, Kris Bryant—even after his ejection on Tuesday—is hitting .342 in the second half and is one of 11 Cubs to have homered in the 11 games since the break.
As for the Brew Crew, Travis Shaw just keeps raking. Eric Thames got the early publicity and his 24 homers and .912 OPS are impressive, but Shaw is this team’s MVP. He’s batting .297 with 23 homers and 73 RBIs while sporting a .943 OPS. Since the break, he’s hit four homers and posted a .362 OBP. His strikeout rate is up since the break, striking out 14 times in 11 games. He’s struck out 84 times overall.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Like the rest of the Cubs rotation, John Lackey has seen a resurgence since the All-Star break. The veteran right-hander is scheduled to make the start on Sunday and is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA since the break.
Overall, Lackey’s numbers still leave plenty to be desired. He’s just 7-9 with a 4.97 ERA and 1.334 WHIP in 19 starts. He’s made one start against the Brewers, letting up four runs in six frames.
While the 38-year old right-hander has been better of late, if you dig deeper into his last start, the performance still wasn’t overly encouraging. Lackey’s big problem this year has been command in and out of the zone. He’s allowed 25 homers already.
Lackey didn’t allow a homer in his last outing and has given up just one in his last three games, but he did walk two batters and hit four more in his five-inning start against the White Sox.
Pitching opposite of Lackey on Sunday will be Zach Davies. While Davies’ overall numbers don’t match up with Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson or even Matt Garza, it’s Davies who leads the team in wins with 12.
Over the course of the year, Davies has been the definition of average with a 100 ERA+. He’s 12-4, getting good run support, but his ERA is 4.45 and his WHIP is elevated at 1.440. He’s walking three per nine innings and striking out just 6.1.
Despite the mediocre numbers, the Brew Crew wins when Davies is on the mound.
Still, there is reason for concern. While Davis pitching six solid innings against Chicago back in July, that was at Wrigley Field. For some reason, Davies has a 6.45 ERA at Miller Park, though he is 6-4 at home as well.
LIVE BETTING
The Brewers lost six in a row shortly after the All-Star break and that allowed a hot Cubs team to close the ground in the division standings.
Since then, Milwaukee has put a few wins on the board, but there’s no question that the team was lacking in the bullpen. They solved that issue on Tuesday with the acquisition of Anthony Swarzak.
Swarzak was having a huge breakout year for Chicago. He has a 2.23 ERA with 52 strikeouts to 13 walks. The Brew Crew now has a great option setting up for Corey Knebel in the ninth.
The duo could still use another arm supporting them, though Josh Hader may be just that. The top prospect has made his debut in the pen and has a 1.08 ERA in his first 12 games, spanning 16.2 innings.
In the first half, the Brewers rotation was pitching better than the Cubs and the offense was doing its part. The bullpen was Milwaukee’s comparative weakness. That gap is closed a bit though Wade Davis, Carl Edwards, Pedro Strop and Koji Uehara is a bit deeper.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs are still stronger in the bullpen and, when playing up to their ability, the team is deeper at the plate, too.
As for Sunday’s game, Lackey is the weak link in the Cubs rotation right now. He’s throwing well, but if Chicago adds another starter, he could be the one ousted.
Still, the way he’s thrown the last two starts, he’s a better bet for a good outing than Davies who has been as good as he has record-wise due to the team support behind him.
Run support is more about luck than anything. Yes, the Brewers have a good offense, but the Cubs do, too.
Take the Cubs to beat the Brewers at Miller Park on Sunday.
MLB Odds: Cubs 6, Brewers 5
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