After an opening series against the Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers find themselves in a difficult part of their schedule here in the early going. After a tough three-game set against the Cardinals, the Brew Crew will face the Chicago Cubs in a tough four-game series with a late afternoon start time scheduled for Game 3 on Saturday. After a rough start against the Cardinals, Zach Davies will be given a chance at redemption against the Cubs while Yu Darvish will be given a chance to justify his large contract in his second start of the year.
First pitch for the game between the Cubs and Brewers is scheduled for Saturday, April 7, 2018, at 2:05 p.m. ET at Miller Park. The matchup will be shown on FS1.
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Odds Analysis
The Cubs have not had the start to the season that the team had expected. After a World Series hangover in 2017, the Cubs were ready to come out strong, but stumbled through the first two series of the year against the Marlins and Reds of all teams.
Chicago came out strong in the series opener against the Brewers so perhaps the Cubs are just playing up to—or in some cases down to—their opponents.
The Cubs won the season series between these two clubs last year, 10-9. Overall, the matchups were tight as the Brewers held the NL Central lead much of the year. In the end, Chicago outscored the Brewers by four runs, 88-84 in the 19 games last year.
Probable Pitchers
Davies will take the ball for the hometown Brewers looking to improve off his disappointing first outing. He allowed seven runs—six earned—in 5.2 innings of work against the Cardinals at home.
The 25-year old right-hander had severe reverse home/road splits last year, struggling at Miller Park, but dominating on the road. Through one game in 2018, the trends have continued.
In 2017, he had a 5.82 home ERA in 17 games, but pitched to a 2.04 ERA on the road. Overall, he was 17-9 with a 3.90 ERA, a solid overall season, but the splits tell a much different story. Davies will need to get over his home issues to have a strong outing on Saturday. Working in his favor is the time of game. Last year, his ERA was a full run per game better during the day than at night. Is stuff plays up to the opponents when the sun is out.
Moreover, Davies has also had good career numbers against the Cubs. He went 2-2 with a 3.66 ERA in five starts against the Cubbies last year. He has a 3.90 career ERA against Chicago over 10 career starts.
On the other side, Darvish is also coming off a rough start in his first outing of the season.
Darvish’s last appearances in 2017 came in the World Series when the Astros roughed him up. He was tipping his pitches then and the thought was he could correct that. The right-hander wasn’t tipping pitches in his first start, but wasn’t finding much success either.
The right-hander didn’t make it through five innings against the Marlins, giving up five runs in 4.1 innings. The Brewers’ offense is a much tougher foe than the one Miami had lined up against him.
Unlike Davies, Darvish has little history against his opponent. He’s faced them once—last year after being traded to the Dodgers. He lasted five innings in that start, allowing three runs.
When on his game, Darvish is on his game, he’s a massive strikeout pitcher, averaging 11 strikeouts per nine innings over his six-year big league career.
Injuries plagued the right-hander after three dominant seasons from 2012-2014. After missing 2015, he came back with 17 starts in 2016 and combined for 31 regular season starts in 2017 between the Rangers and Dodgers.
While he proved himself healthy last year, his 3.86 combined ERA was the highest of his career while his 10.1 strikeout rate and 1.3 home runs per nine ratio were his worst.
Live Betting
Strikeouts had plagued the Cubs’ offense in the first two series, but the team is starting to make better contact over the last few games.
Overall, the Chicago offense is better than the early returns would indicate. The leadoff spot remains a bit of a question. The team still misses Dexter Fowler who left following the 2016 season. They have Ian Happ and Albert Almora Jr. as the lead off options. Happ already has 10 strikeouts and brings pop, but a limited OBP.
Still, the team is stacked offensively. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant are a dynamic duo in the infield corners while Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber have gotten off to good starts.
The team, however is still waiting for Rizzo and Willson Contreras to come around.
The Brewers’ bats are swinging a bit better right now. Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich, Lorenzo Cain and Domingo Santana have all gotten off to strong starts. Eric Thames and Ryan Braun have swung rather well early, too, as they all battle for playing time.
The depth surely is a good thing. Yelich is dealing with an oblique strain so the team has depth to cover if he needs to miss.
Offensively, the Brewers are hotter and in the bullpen, the Brewers may be playing better, too.
Josh Hader has been nearly unhittable for Milwaukee. Jacob Barnes has been good and Dan Jennings and Oliver Drake make solid matchup relievers. Corey Knebel was one of the best closers in the game last year. Though he did blow his first chance.
On the other side, the Cubs’ pen is stacked with Brandon Morrow, Justin Wilson Steve Cischek and more, but the clear cut closer is missing from the equation.
MLB Pick
Darvish didn’t look great in his last start and was mediocre in his only career game against the Brewers. Meanwhile, Davies has a solid track record against the Cubbies.
Look for Davies to pitch six solid frames against the Cubs and the strong Milwaukee bullpen to close the door while the offense delivers just enough against Darvish and the Chicago pen.
The Brew Crew get the win in this one at home over the slumping Chicago offense.
MLB Odds: Brewers 5, Cubs 3
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