The Cubs will look to kick off their NL East road trip on a high in the City of Brotherly Love where they’ll look to take their fourth straight over a Phillies squad they swept at Wrigley Field just over a week ago.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
In taking three of four from the Dodgers leading up to their weekend bout with the D’backs, the Cubs moved to an MLB best 37-15 that’s seen them reel in $1112 worth of betting profit for their wagering supporters. There wasn’t much value betting on the Cubs to win the World Series at the beginning of the season, and there certainly isn’t much now with them the +250 odds on favorites to finally pull off the feat for the first time since 1908. Cubs’ fans are pessimists at heart, but things are looking real good on the Northside of Chicago.
Not much was expected of the Phillies at the beginning of the season with most pundits having them pegged for another last place finish. The Braves are the rightful owners of that distinction right now with Philadelphia holding down fourth place. Even though the club sits two games under .500 overall, it’s still reeled in $292 worth of betting profit and has played to an even .500 record at home ($42). The team has had a rough go of it against NL Central opposition this season in winning just five of 17 games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Cubs didn’t feel as if they got their money’s worth with Jon Lester a year ago with him going 11-12 and pitching to a 3.34 ERA. An injury incurred in spring training could have led to his mediocre output, but that hasn’t been the case in 2016. The lefty is earning every penny of his $25 million dollar salary after allowing just 55 hits in 70+ innings and actually increasing the velocity on his fastball in his age 323 season.
Chicago’s won eight of his 11 overall starts, and he enters his twelfth off a complete game gem against the Dodgers that saw him give up just four hits and strike out 10. He allowed just 1 ER against the Phillies back on May 27 to log his fifth win of the season.
Adam Morgan got tattooed for a pair of homers versus the Cubs when he matched up against Lester. He’s given up five over his last two starts, and with this game taking place at Citizens Bank – a well-known hitters park – it’s likely Chicago plays long ball with him once again.
LIVE BETTING
Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant took Morgan deep in his first career start against the Cubs last week, and if you’re a props player, I’d take a stab at one of those two likely doing it again in this one.
Bryant homered in back-to-back games against the Dodgers, while Soler has gone yard twice in his last seven baseball games.
QUICK PICK
Philadelphia embarrassed Joe Maddon’s kids last season, and the way the Cubs pummeled them last week, it’s safe to say they remembered. Chicago is playing .680 ball on the road to date, and there’s no doubt in my mind they’ll be looking to take it to the Phills in front of their hometown faithful.
Lester’s on a roll and Philly’s averaging just 2.9 runs per game against lefties on the year. All that adds up to another decisive win for Chicago as it kicks off this lengthy road trip in style.
MLB Odds: Cubs 11, Phillies 3
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