The Cubs and Phillies will close their series out in the City of Brotherly Love Hump Day afternoon with an exceptional pitcher’s duel lined up between veteran John Lackey and up and comer Vince Velazquez.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
While the Cubs had their four game win streak halted in their finale Sunday afternoon against the win-hungry Diamondbacks, Joe Maddon is still overlooking the best team in baseball that’s still on track to shatter its lofty season win total. Chicago enters the series playing .709 ball and winners in 10 of their last 12. Due to being forced to lay a bunch of juice in every game, Kris Bryant and company have only reeled in a shade over $1K overall. Better than half of it has been earned on the road where the club’s won 17 of 25 for a $590 return on investment.
The Phillies were surprisingly once one of the better bets in all of baseball, but as the season has moved deeper into the summer months, reality has set in. Pete Mackanin’s club has gotten out to a 2-3 start for the month of June, and has only logged three victories in its last 13 tries. While it’s still up $392 for its wagering supporters overall, that figure will no doubt continue to decline with the offense simply unable to manufacture runs on a consistent basis.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Chicago owns the league’s top ranked starting staff that owns a collective 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. One of the arms that’s contributed mightily to that ranking has been John Lackey whose been nothing short of sensational in now his 15th season in the bigs. He’s 6-2 overall and owns a stellar 2.88 ERA and 0.97 WHIP to go along with a 76:19 K/BB ratio. He threw at the Phillies back on May 29 and went seven strong while allowing just one earned run. He did however walk four, but Philly’s inept offense wasn’t able to take advantage.
With Philadelphia’s offense ranked amongst the worst in the league, the lone saving grace on this ball club has been the pitching with the starting staff and bullpen ranked No. 10 and 14 in ERA. Vince Velasquez has fit right in nicely since coming over from Houston in going 5-2 with a 3.67 ERA and 73:22 K/BB ratio. The 1-2 punch of him and Aaron Nola will be one to watch for many years in the NL East. That said, he enters his twelfth start of the season on a skid in pitching to a 8.31 ERA and failing to make it through the fifth inning in each of his last three starts.
LIVE BETTING
Velasquez was just rolled up and smoked by the Cubs back on May 29 when he served up nine hits and a pair of home runs through just 4.2 innings of work. That outing took place on the road however where his ERA jumps up to 5.79 and he’s been much more hittable in giving up 39 hits over 32.2 innings of work.
It’s been a much different story at home where he stands 3-1 and owns a 1.26 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. While he did struggle in his most recent home start versus the Brewers, it’s likely the after effect of facing the Cubs and Tigers in back-to-back starts had something to do with it.
QUICK PICK
Dog players are going to be all over the Phillies in this one, and deservedly so. Velasquez is a much better pitcher than the one that’s struggled since the middle of May, and I’m always one to lean to the pitcher that went down recently and gets a shot at redemption in a quick turnaround.
While his overall stats don’t show it, Lackey hasn’t had much success at Citizen’s Bank Park in going 1-3 through four career starts. I get that he’s also been money under the sun as well, but the value on VV at home where he’s excelled all season will be too much to pass on for me. Look for a closely contested low scorer to play out in this one.
MLB Odds: Phillies 3, Cubs 2
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