The last time Cubs starter Jake Arrieta took the mound at PNC Park he dazzled, tossing a five-hit shutout in the Wild Card game. With five wins in his five starts this season, Arrieta looks to continue his dominance over NL Central foe Pittsburgh.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
An unexpected day off because of the postponement of Saturday’s game against the Atlanta Braves, the Cubs decided to shuffle their rotation to keep starters Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester going on normal rest. And that’s not a good sign for the Pirates, who will face both aces in this series instead of just one.
The Cubs have won all five games in which Arrieta has started and 18 straight during the regular season dating back to last year. The Cy Young winner from 2015 was handed a loss in the NLCS by the Mets, but overall Chicago is 21-1 in the last 22 games started by Arrieta. He had a good handle on the Pirates last season, posting a 0.75 ERA and 0.64 WHIP in 36.0 innings over five starts, and that doesn’t include the five-hit, 11-strikeout shutout he twirled at them in the Wild Card game. Chicago has backed its ace with 45 runs in his starts and the over is 5-0 in games he started this season.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Jake Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA) limited the Brewers to three hits and one run, while striking out six over five innings in Thursday’s 7-2 win. He was lifted for a pinch-hitter after throwing 92 pitches, ending his streak of consecutive quality starts at 24. It’s rare to see Arrieta leave a game so soon and a curios decision by manager Joe Maddon, who likely wanted to preserve his ace after he tossed 119 pitches in his no-hitter the previous outing.
It’s the tiniest bit concerning that Arrieta has issued four walks in consecutive starts, but considering one of those was a no-hitter, that can be overlooked. Either way, its five wins in five starts with a miniscule 1.00 ERA.
Jonathon Niese (3-0, 5.08 ERA) was touched for 10 hits and five runs in just five innings of work Wednesday against the Rockies, but received a no-decision in a game the Pirates won 9-8. He’s now surrendered 10 hits in each of his last two outings, though a visit to Coors Field is never easy on pitchers. He did leave with a 7-4 lead but the bullpen couldn’t hold it.
It’s not like Niese can complain though. He is unbeaten despite his 5.08 ERA. In 10 career starts against the Cubs, he’s 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Niese has surrendered 70 hits over 58.2 innings but his most recent outing was a good one. He allowed just four hits and one run in seven innings and was saddled with the loss in a 1-0 decision on June 30 while with the Mets.
LIVE BETTING
The Pirates retooled their offensive approach over the offseason and with a month to analyze, the efforts are paying off. Pittsburgh has the third-highest run total in the Majors and its average of 5.32 per game is fourth-best in baseball. And when they score four or more runs in a game they are 15-4. Though the Pirates are in the bottom third in home run production, the lineup has still found ways to produce.
Throughout the lineup, there’s an approach to seeing more pitches, working deep into counts and ultimately getting on base. The Pirates’ .378 on-base percentage is the best in the major leagues. They’ll need to work Arrieta with their approach if they want to hand the reigning Cy Young winner his first loss.
QUICK PICK
The Cubs visit their division rival boasting the best record in baseball. Having their ace on the hill gives them plenty of confidence. Arrieta owned the Pirates last season and ended Chicago’s playoff drought with a masterpiece in the Wild Card game. On the other side, Niese hasn’t been all that effective and the Cubs lineup can score runs.
It won’t take a dominant effort from Arrieta, but he should do enough to keep the Pirates quiet while the offense gets to Niese and what has become a shaky bullpen.
MLB Odds: Chicago 6, Pittsburgh 3
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