The Cubs wrap up the second leg of a three series road trip on Wednesday with the last of three in sunny San Diego against the Padres. San Diego is now in the role of spoiler, but given the Cubbies lead in the NL Central, there doesn’t seem to be much here to spoiler other than a payout for bettors looking to cash in on the Cubs’ train.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs were handed a tough loss on Sunday, but have still won 16 of their last 20 games and boast the game’s best record.
Even so, Chicago hasn’t been a profitable team to back overall. They’ve been overvalued all year as the assumed World Series champions all the way back in April.
The roster is stacked in every position. They’ve revamped a bullpen that wasn’t that bad to begin with and have a number of players on the bench and in the minors that would be starting for many teams.
While the win probability is quite high, the value for that win is minor, even in road games.
On the other hand, the Padres’ moneyline is quite comparable to that of the Cubs.
While the Cubbies are on one of their torrid runs once more, the Padres are five games under .500 since the All-Star break and three under since the start of August.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Cubs continue to dominate the National League and, in fact, the whole of Major League Baseball thanks to a deep and stacked lineup, but more so, a deep and stacked starting rotation.
While we all were looking at Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester as the team’s Cy Young Award contenders, the rotation’s junior most member—26-year old Kyle Hendricks—has quietly put together the best season of them all, at least to date.
The right-hander put up good numbers in the first two seasons of his big league career, but he struggled going deep in games and was generally a reliable six-inning pitcher in the middle, to back of the rotation.
That’s changed here in 2016. He’s really come into his own and owns baseball’s best ERA amongst qualify starters at 2.16.
Along with that stellar ERA is an 11-7 record and 1.000 WHIP. The righty is finding success by inducing plenty of weak contact and relying on a quality defense behind him.
Strikeouts are always sexier than the groundball, but you cannot argue with success. What makes this story even better—and improves the chances of a Cubs win here on Wednesday—is the fact Hendriks hasn’t slowed down. In fact, he’s continued to get better. Just two starts ago, he showed that he can get the strikeouts, too, sitting down 12 Cardinals batters when he needed. After that, he allowed just a single run in six innings against a strong Rockies’ offense his last time out.
He’s now pitched to a 1.22 ERA in his last 11 games. We’re no longer talking about a small sample size.
Getting the insanely tall order of matching up with Hendricks is 28-year old right-hander Paul Clemens.
Clemens has found himself in the Padres’ rotation due to trades and injuries and has made five starts in nine appearances for San Diego. He was acquired from the Marlins in early July.
Overall, Clemens is 1-2 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.463 WHIP in 27 1/3 innings for the Padres and has a 4.82 ERA in 37 1/3 innings overall this season. In his last two starts, he went five innings each and allowed three runs in both games.
LIVE BETTING
The Padres’ entirely new look outfield with Melvin Upton, Jon Jay and Matt Kemp gone has produced mixed results, much like the original crew.
Alex Dickerson has been a very good story so far and Travis Jankowski has been a solid on base guy, but Jabari Blash has had a rough start. He’s hitting just .169 in his 38 games.
As for the rest of the lineup, Derek Norris and Alexei Ramirez have been major disappointments and virtual black holes in the order. Still, San Diego is able to rack up the runs now and then thanks to a brilliant season from Wil Myers and plenty of pop from Ryan Schimpf, albeit along with a .229 average.
This team is one that can be pitched to and Hendricks is a good pitcher with a strong bullpen behind him. They just need to be sure to keep Myers from getting to many chances with runners on and limit the damage from Yangervis Solarte.
On the other side of the field, the Cubs have a much more balanced order. The biggest weak spot offensively for Chicago is Jason Heyward. It’s been a bad year for him, but the team still has 10 of its 12 active offensive players with an OPS+ or at least 100.
The depth affords Joe Maddon the luxury of playing the matchups and put both a strong offensive and great defensive lineup on the field.
QUICK PICK
There’s no question the Cubs are the better team. The pitching matchup, both to start the game and in the pen, favor Chicago while the lineup and even defense looks to tilt towards the Cubbies.
The smart bet is on the Cubs to win, but the odds are likely to be a bit lopsided, even with this game taking place in southern California. Look too see where the run lines fall as that may be the more profitable bet.
The Cubs should easily win and by a fair margin given their offense is one of the best in the league, their starter is a Cy Young contender and their rebuilt bullpen provides protection while the Padres are dealing with an inexperienced starter that has yet to earn his spot in the big leagues at the age of 28 and a depleted team filled with guys other organizations have passed on.
MLB Odds: Cubs 8, Padres 2
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