If your favorite baseball team isn't playing tonight, make the games more interesting by betting on MLB odds at BookMaker Sportsbook! This is the only online wagering outlet that offers early MLB moneylines, runlines and totals. First pitch for the final game of the divisional round between the Chicago Cubs and Washington Nationals is scheduled for Thursday, October 12, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Nationals Park. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
It’s been a good series so far and we have one more game as the Washington Nationals and Chicago Cubs go head-to-head one more time in a NLDS Game 5. Pitching—and drama—has ruled this series so far, but it’s also a matchup between two of the game’s best offenses so in a game when all hands are on deck, anything can happen.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
It appears the momentum in this series has shifted repeatedly, leaving the saying: “momentum is only as good as your next day’s starter” ringing true. It’s especially important in a series like this one where the losing team has combined to score four runs in four games.
While most of the divisional series wins and losses have been had based on home field advantage, this NLDS showdown has been different. Both teams have won both at home and on the road.
For now, the momentum seems to be with the Nationals who forced a Game 5 and get to return to the hometown fans in hopes of celebrating a series win at home. For a team that was riddled with controversy just a few hours before game time, this could be a true redemption story for the team—and for Dusty Baker who is still looking for that elusive World Series ring. A win on Wednesday brings him that much closer.
As to the controversy, on Monday after the rainout, the report was that Stephen Strasburg wouldn’t start Game 4 even though he’d be on regular rest because he was under the weather. That sparked questions about his toughness, his desire and his ability to be “that guy” when it was needed.
Well, he was “that guy” when it was all said and done. He did make the start in Game 4 and he dominated. The Cubs offense was left shutout. How does that impact confidence heading into a win-or-go-home Game 5?
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Having used Strasburg in Game 4, we won’t get a Game 1 rematch. The Cubs will be sending Game 1 starter Kyle Hendricks to the mound, but the Nationals will likely use Gio Gonzalez who started Game 2.
Both starters toed the rubber in a NLDS game that their team eventually won, but Hendricks got the win while the Nationals needs a late game comeback to win Game 2.
In Hendricks’ start, the right-hander went seven scoreless, allowing just two hits and walking three in those frames. Combining that game with his last three regular season starts, Hendricks has allowed only two runs in his last 25.2 innings. He hasn’t allowed a single run in his last 17 innings.
Right now, Hendricks is throwing the best he’s ever thrown which is staying quite a log given his league leading 2.13 ERA last year and solid 3.03 overall mark in 2017.
While Hendricks is likely to throw well again on Thursday, he’s not been known to go deep in games. Even if he’s lights out again, the Nationals will have a chance for a few innings against the pen.
The same is true for Gio Gonzalez. The bullpen will be needed for a few innings at the least. His latest trends, however, indicate that the pen may be a bit more active than that. While Hendricks was pitching his best baseball at the end of the year, Gonzo was slumping.
Gonzalez ended the year with a slightly better ERA than Hendricks at 2.96 and his 15 wins were impressive, but his last regular season start resulted in six runs in 4.1 innings. He went five innings allowing three runs in Game 2 of this series.
LIVE BETTING
One potential differentiation is in the pen and who will be more rested. Given Gonzo’s recent history, it’s probably a good thing that Washington’s pen will be more rested.
Only Ryan Madson and Sean Dolittle pitched out of the pen on Wednesday with Dolittle tossing only 12 pitches. If Gonzalez struggles early, Tanner Roark and even Max Scherzer will be available for some length. Brandon Kintzler is also an elite arm available and ready to go.
For Joe Maddon, Jon Lester was needed to follow Jake Arrieta to the hill in Game 4, leaving John Lackey, Jose Quintana and Mike Montgomery as the options if there’s a quick hook on Hendricks.
Another key trend to watch is the offensive production of Trea Turner. The young shortstop was 0-for the series through the first three games. He couldn’t get anything going at the top of the order. On Wednesday, Turner got on base three times with a double down the line and a pair of walks. He didn’t record a stolen base, but certainly distracted the pitchers, showing just how impactful he can be on the base paths. A more confident Turner could make things much harder for Hendricks the second time around.
Offense has been somewhat limited in this series so a sparkplug that can make things happen with his legs leading off is dangerous.
QUICK PICK
Neither team has raked this series so it’s probable that this game will be won-or-lost on the back of the pitching just like the previous four.
Look for Hendricks to out duel Gonzalez, but Dusty Baker should have the quicker hook. He’s got a ton of tools at his disposal. Max Scherzer could be the hero in this one if Baker is willing to go his way. We’ve already seen aces come in relief this postseason with Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester and Robbie Ray all doing it.
With Trea Turner no longer lost at the dish, a hit by him could split the attention of a Cubs hurler and allow Jayson Werth, Bryce Harper or Ryan Zimmerman a better pitch to hit behind him. One big swing of the bat may be all it takes.
Bank on Baker throwing everyone and anyone he needs to get through nine and Washington scratching across just enough runs to get their first postseason series win since the franchise moved from Montreal.
MLB Odds: Nationals 4, Cubs 3
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