After a three-game sweep, the Los Angeles Dodgers had to wait a while to see who they would face in the NLCS, but we have our matchup now. The Dodgers will take on the Chicago Cubs in a rematch of the 2016 NLCS. How will the layoff impact the Dodgers? The pitching is lined up and ready to go which is a plus, but L.A.’s offense could suffer from the break while the Cubs will essentially just keep playing with a single day off to travel down to the City of Angels.
This series will begin on Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 8 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. The National League Division Series showdown will be televised nationally on TBS.
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Starting Pitching Matchups
By beating the Diamondbacks in three straight in the NLDS, the Dodgers have been off since Monday and have had plenty of time to get their rotation rested and lined up.
As a result, Clayton Kershaw will take the ball in Game 1. Kershaw couldn’t take the ball until Game 3 last year so L.A. is already in a bit better position.
The southpaw is regarded as the best pitcher in the game. It’s not hard to see why. He went 18-4 in the regular season. He led the league in ERA for the fifth time in the last seven years posting a 2.31 ERA. His ERA was lower the last two years when he didn’t have the best ERA in the NL.
Kershaw is a strikeout machine, but does more than that. When the opposition does make contact, it’s weak. They can’t do much with it. That said, the lefty did allow the most homers this year he has in his career, giving up 23. His previous career high was 16. We saw four Diamondbacks take him deep in his NLDS start. He allowed just five hits, including those four homers. Thankfully for him, they were all solo shots.
For as amazing as Kershaw has been in the regular season throughout his career, he’s posting 4.63 postseason ERA in 19 games. Those numbers are a bit misleading. He’s been better than that through the first five or six innings, but many of his postseason runs have come in his final frame as L.A. consistently opts to leave him in a few too many batters.
Can Kershaw beat his postseason demons and replicate his regular season success in October? We will find out.
Beyond Kershaw, the rest of the Dodgers’ rotation is strong, too. Yu Darvish, Rich Hill and Alex Wood make up the other three arms.
Wood didn’t get a chance to start yet in this postseason given the three-game series against Arizona. He’ll be rusty when he does get a start. The lefty will battle, however. He had a break out season after starting the year in the bullpen. He ended up going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA. He was better in the first half than the second half, but still had a respectable 3.89 ERA in 12 starts after the All-Star break.
Wood has been a better road pitcher this year than he was at Dodger Stadium. That’s good as he’s lined up to make the Game 4 start in Chicago. He’s 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA in 13 road starts.
As for the other two Dodgers starters, Hill fairs better at home and could get the Game 2 nod as a result. One of three lefties in the postseason rotation, Hill’s curve is one of the best breaking pitches in the game.
Hill was okay in the NLDS. He went four innings and allowed two runs. He’s normally not one to go deep in a game, but L.A. will hope for more than four frames given the uncertainty in the pen.
Darvish, on the other hand, was a little shaky in his time with the Dodgers. He was slower to adjust after the trade, but finished the regular season strong. He then went on to pitch the best game of the series against the Diamondbacks. In a series featuring offense, the held the D-Backs to one run in five innings as the Dodgers won 3-1 in a pitchers’ duel.
While the Dodgers have lined their rotation up as they want for this series, it’s uncertain who the Cubs will go with in Game 1 after Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester both pitched on Wednesday and Kyle Hendricks and Jose Quintana saw time in Thursday’s NLDS clincher.
Those four should be the four starters for this series as they were in the NLDS. John Lackey would be the other option if Joe Maddon doesn’t want to bring any of those arms back on short rest.
Lackey didn’t take the ball at all in the NLDS so it seems unlikely Maddon would go to him now, but he’s a bulldog and will be ready to pitch—if asked—even with the long layoff.
That shouldn’t be necessary. Quintana didn’t throw many pitches on Thursday and both Arrieta and Lester were limited in their appearances on Wednesday.
Save for Hendricks’ struggles in Game 5, the other four starts of the NLDS were strong—short, but strong.
In his Game 1 appearance, Hendricks went seven scoreless. In Games 1, 3 and 4, the starter didn’t even give up an earned run.
For the Cubs, this rotation (by the numbers) took a massive step back from where it was last year. They are still the same guys with basically the same stuff; plus, the addition of Quintana.
Outside of the new southpaw, there’s plenty of postseason experience in this rotation which could come in handy against a Dodgers team that’ll be trying to get a stigma off their backs. After all, they’ve been to the postseason year in and year out, but haven’t advanced to the World Series.
Offensive Comparison
The Dodgers scored 20 runs in their three postseason games, hitting just three homers, but posting a .397 OBP.
Los Angeles has a deep lineup. Cody Bellinger had a big home run in the NLDS and hit 39 in 132 games in the regular season. In addition to him, Yasmani Grandal, Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, Justin Turner and Chris Taylor all delivered more than 20 long balls.
Power shouldn’t be an issue for the Dodgers, but this team is more than just the longball. There were five regulars with an OBP of at least .350 and that doesn’t include Puig who reached base at a .346 clip.
L.A. got good production up-and-down the order in the NLDS, but how does that carry over after having most of a week off? Can the lineup keep its timing despite the layoff or can the Cubs’ pitching take advantage of the rust in Game 1?
Speaking of the Cubs, they were a potent offensive force in the regular season and scored nine runs to clinch their third straight NLCS berth on Thursday night.
In the second half, Chicago’s offense ranked first in runs scored in baseball as the 2017 Cubs’ offense outproduced the World Series Championship team of a year ago. Pitching consistency was the main issue that caused the team to take a step back in the number of wins.
The Cubs had six players with at least 20 home runs on the season. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, obviously, are the offensive leaders of the team. Willson Contreras has solidified himself in the cleanup spot after the duo. It had been an up-and-down year for Addison Russell thanks to some off the field issues, but he’s come around lately.
What really makes the Cubs’ offense so special can be seen in their NLDS Game 5 win. They scored nine runs without a home run and hit just two homers in the entire series. Without the long ball, they were still able to string hits together and drive in runs.
Bullpen Breakdown
Kenley Jansen is a known quantity for the Dodgers in the ninth and will be asked for more than three outs in most of his starts. He pitched in all three NLDS games, going 3.2 innings. He did give up a run, but it was unearned. He went 2-for-2 in save chances.
Bridging the gap to Jansen was the question heading into October and so far it’s been answered positively. Brandon Morrow is getting late game looks and Kenta Maeda pitched well in two innings, striking out two. He’s a force against right-handers, but the Cubs’ lineup is typically staggered left-and-right. We’ll see if he’s allowed to face a southpaw.
If not, Tony Cingrani is the Dodgers’ lefty specialist right now. Tony Watson got roughed up by Arizona.
The Cubs have their own bullpen issues. Carl Edwards Jr. was one of the primary set up men for Wade Davis. He pitched in all five games of the NLDS, but struggled with his command. Joe Maddon’s patience appeared to wear quickly in Game 5. He was pulled after a single batter.
If Edwards is working his way out of Maddon’s favor, who could take those innings? Pedro Strop is an option. Brian Duensing and Justin Wilson will see most of the late game at-bats against key lefties.
In the ninth, Jansen is probably the better pitcher compared to Wade Davis. Davis has proven himself over a few postseasons with the Royals, but the right-hander had no saves of more than three outs in the regular season. He was extended in Game 5 of the NLDS, but how frequently is that an option before he gets fatigued?
Quick Pick
The Dodgers have the rest. The Dodgers have their rotation aligned. And, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball.
Los Angeles had a rough month this season. If not for that, this team would have set the record for most wins in a season. We cannot discount a month of the year, but in their last 13 games the Dodgers have looked like that team on the record setting pace. That’s dangerous for the Cubs.
L.A. has a dynamic and deep offense with many options to counter whoever Joe Maddon throws. While the bullpen isn’t completely nailed down, it’s a lot more of a sure thing than it was coming into the postseason. Meanwhile, the rotation is extremely strong.
The Dodgers have the best balance of the two teams. Look for the Cubs to at least force this series back to Los Angeles, but the Dodgers are just too good this year. Look for the boys in blue to wrap this up in six frames.
MLB Odds: Dodgers over Cubs in Six
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