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Thursday will wrap up a three game series against these division foes as Cleveland continues to set the pace in the AL Central.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Cleveland has won seven of the first nine games head-to-head between these clubs heading into this series. The Indians hold a 12-game lead over the White Sox in the AL Central.
Added to those obvious advantages is the fact that the Indians are 35-20 at home while the Sox are a mere 27-35 on the road.
The White Sox have been playing better of late, splitting their last 10 games after a stretch of six losses in seven games, but .500 may not be enough against the division leader.
After a losing road trip, Cleveland returned home over the weekend and swept the visiting Angels in four games, outscoring them 37-12.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Indians haven’t announced their start for Thursday, but are slated to skip Josh Tomlin in order to keep Corey Kluber and Carlos Carrasco on normal rest after the off-day.
That could leave Thursday’s start for Tomlin or it could be Mike Clevinger getting the nod after a strong outing against the Angels this past weekend. After a strong bullpen session on Sunday, however, the Tribe is hopeful that Danny Salazar can return to the hill.
Tomlin’s last two starts have been rough, allowing 14 runs in just eight and two-thirds innings of work. He’s allowed 17 hits, walked three and given up a pair of home runs. Clevinger, on the other hand, has only made six appearances and five starts with the Tribe this year and he’s got a higher overall ERA that Tomlin at 5.81. Walks are a huge issue for Clevinger while Tomlin’s walk rate leads the league, his home run totals do, too, however.
Given their struggles, if Salazar can take the hill, that would be a huge boost for this team.
Salazar, much like Clevinger, has an elevated walk rate of 3.9 per nine innings, but that hasn’t hindered him much. He’s been hard to hit when he’s on the mound and is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and 1.253 WHIP while striking out 10.2 per nine innings.
Before going to the disabled list, Salazar had a few bad starts, but that could be due in part to his injury. It’ll be worth watching to see if he’s fully healed and if forgoing a rehab start leaves him a little rusty.
Carlos Rodon will be taking the mound for the ChiSox. He’s just 3-8 on the season with a 4.32 ERA and 1.486 WHIP. He’s been rather hittable this year with 10.2 hits allowed per nine and a home run rate of 1.4 per nine, the highest amongst the team’s starters not named James Shields.
The young southpaw is pitching well right now with back-to-back games of six innings and just one earned run. He also performed well against Cleveland back in June when he went six and a third, giving up two runs.
LIVE BETTING
The pitching was supposed to lead the way for Cleveland this season and, to an extent, it has, but the Salazar injury and some ineffectiveness limited the rotation for a stretch.
The acquisition of Andrew Miller at the deadline helped shore up the reinforcements at the end of the game and Terry Francona’s use of Miller and Cody Allen allows him to put his best pitchers in key spots in the game, not necessarily just in the ninth.
All that is good, but the offense has been a real key to the Indian’s success.
Mike Napoli looked done in Boston last year, but came back to life in Texas after the trade and has been a dominating force in the heart of the order for Cleveland this year with a .876 OPS thanks to a .348 OBP and 29 home runs. He’s also driven in 84.
Napoli isn’t a lone wolf in this offense. In fact, the whole order—outside the catcher position—is offering above average offense.
Also, with a lefty on the hill, we should see Brandon Guyer in the lineup. Since coming over from Tampa Bay, he’s played in eight games going 7-for-15 with a homer, six RBIs and three walks. He’s a beast against southpaws.
When you factor in Carlos Santana’s best power season and strong campaigns from Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis and Tyler Naquin whose .972 OPS leads the team, it’s no wonder this offense ranks fourth in all of baseball. They’ve got six starters with an OPS north of .800 and that doesn’t even include Guyer.
Meanwhile, the White Sox have scored the second fewest runs in the AL, more than 100 fewer than the Indians.
The Sox have plenty of hitters on the disabled list and while Tim Anderson has shown some flashes, he’s just getting his feet wet. Between Adam Eaton, Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier and Jose Abreu, this offense should be better than it is, but while all four are having okay seasons in terms of OPS+, none has an OPS above .790 well below a number of different Indians players.
QUICK PICK
Keep an eye on who starts this game. That’s crucial. With Tomlin’s struggles, as long as he’s not on the field, the Indians should win.
Salazar would experience some issues—particularly with command—after a long layoff due to injury, but it’s hard to believe a struggling White Sox lineup can take advantage, at least not enough to get the win.
Cleveland’s bats are hot and they’ve got a great lineup against lefties like Rodon. Look for yet another nice game from Guyer as the Indians come away with the win at home.
MLB Odds: Indians 6, White Sox 4
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