If you like pitching, Sunday afternoon’s series finale between the White Sox and Marlins is shaping up to be one to watch with Jose Fernandez and Chris Sale in line for the start. Both teams should have an ace on the mound, but only one is still holding on to postseason aspirations.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The season is essentially over for Chicago as the Sox now play for pride and to be the spoiler. They’re four games under-.500 as of Wednesday and find themselves well in the negatives in terms of total moneyline.
The White Sox have been under-.500 in each month since April and that includes a 3-4 mark in August over the team’s first seven games of the month.
Here in the second half of the season, the decline has continued with a 9-15 record, much of the struggle coming on the road.
Flip over to the Marlins and the team is several games over at home and has been over .500 in every full month of the season.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Two of the game’s best starters go toe-to-toe on Sunday afternoon with Chris Sale on the bump for the White Sox down in Miami against the Marlins’ Jose Fernandez.
Sale was the starter for the AL team in the All-Star game and comes into play with a 14-5 record, 3.12 ERA and 1.020 WHIP in 147 innings of work over his 21 starts. He’s also delivered a league leading four complete games, including a shutout.
Throughout his young career, Sale has been a beast. He lead the league in strikeouts last year, striking out 11.8 per nine innings. The now-veteran at only 27-years of age has seen a decline in his strikeout rate this year, down to 8.8 per nine. That’s a result of a conscious effort on his part to lower his pitch count and get more outs earlier in the count.
While the Ks have declined as a result, the outs remain. He’s actually allowing fewer hits per nine innings and has a walk rate below his career average.
The southpaw hit a bump in the road a month ago, giving up eight runs in five innings against the Braves of all teams. Since then, however, he’s thrown four straight quality starts.
As for Fernandez, this is his first full season back from Tommy John surgery and he’s better than ever. He leads the NL in strikeouts with 198 and is striking out a staggering 12.9 per nine innings.
The youngster just turned 24-years old and is already in his fourth season and while the number of starts were limited the last two years, each of his four big league seasons he’s featured an ERA below three.
This year, Fernandez is 12-6 with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.090 WHIP. His walks are up a bit along with his strikeouts, but he’s doing a good job avoiding hard contact. He’s allowed just 10 home runs in 137 2/3 innings.
Since May 9, Fernandez has given up two runs or less in 12 of his 16 starts, including both of his August starts. Nevertheless, the Marlins have dropped each of his last three starts.
LIVE BETTING
With Sale and Fernandez pitching, this figures to be a low scoring game with both starters going deep. That leaves the bullpens as crucial parts of this game.
Interestingly, both the home and road team are nearly identical in team bullpen ERA with the Marlins sitting at 3.82 and the Sox at 3.84. There, however, are different factors to consider.
For one, the Marlins are now without closer A.J. Ramos who after 32 saves is out with an injury. David Phelps who spent most the year in the pen and is second on the team in saves just started on Wednesday so he’s also out of the bullpen picture.
That leaves Fernando Rodney as the likely closer. He was lights out in San Diego, but has been less than stellar in Miami with a 11 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings driven up by a large walk rate and a couple home run balls.
On the other side of the field, the White Sox are now without Zach Duke who was traded at the deadline. He was the team’s big lefty out of the pen.
Nate Jones and Dan Jennings are still in place after strong seasons, but there’s questions about closer David Robertson who has an ERA over four and a few blown games over the last month.
QUICK PICK
With little offensive output expected on either side, at least early in the game, one swing of the bat could make a huge difference.
That swing could come from Giancarlo Stanton. The big bopper in Miami has cooled here in August, but was scorching hot in July and has great numbers against lefties this year, hitting .280 with a .977 OPS. He’s also a better hitter at the cavernous Marlins Park than he is on the road.
One big swing of the bat from Stanton could be all it takes. Fernandez has the better numbers—albeit slightly—this year compared to Sale and the Marlins’ have been playing better baseball for the vast majority of the season, too.
MLB Odds: Marlins 3, White Sox 2
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