When ace Clayton Kershaw starts, the Dodgers usually win. In fact, L.A. is 8-1 this season in games started by their lefty and 15-2 over Kershaw’s last 17 regular season starts.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
As the Reds continue to lose games in predictable ways, it makes us wonder how long manager Bryan Price remains with the club. And at this point, if he even wants to. The Atlanta Braves, in a similar rebuilding mode after gutting the roster, fired their manager, using Fredi Gonzalez as a scapegoat for the problem of their making. Will the Reds follow suit?
It’s not Price’s fault that the Reds bullpen has a 6.46 ERA, the worst in the league, is it? Is it his fault the starting pitchers can barely get past the fifth inning? Or that the Reds have been hit with an unreasonable number of injuries. The Reds will not magically get better if Price is fired tomorrow. They will field the same team that lost 25 of their first 40 games. They will send the same pitchers, who have a MLB-worst ERA, to the bump. And they will continue to lose games. Especially when facing the best hurler in the game in Clayton Kershaw.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Brandon Finnegan (1-2, 4.44 ERA) gave up four runs – three earned – one eight hits over 5.2 innings and took a no-decision in Wednesday’s 8-7 loss to Cleveland. He whiffed six and didn’t walk a batter for the second time in his last three starts, though he issued five free passes the other outing.
Finnegan has allowed exactly three earned in five consecutive starts, but has only managed to go long enough for a quality start twice in that span, highlighting his generalized struggles with inefficiency. That’s been his story this season, but the left-hander with decent heat and a changeup that works well against righties has plenty of upside.
Clayton Kershaw (6-1, 1.67 ERA) notched his sixth straight double-digit strikeout game and fourth consecutive win with a dazzling performance Tuesday night. He allowed just four hits and a run in eight innings with 11 strikeouts on 107 pitches to beat the Angels 5-1.
Kershaw has been masterful during the month of May, winning all four of his starts with a 0.82 ERA, 48 strikeouts and one walk over 33.0 innings. He’s given up just 18 hits and has a 0.58 WHIP while opponents are hitting just .161 against him. Kershaw hasn’t faced the Reds since May 28, 2014 when he surrendered three runs in seven innings and took the loss.
LIVE BETTING
No Reds lead is safe. And it’s not because they play in a home run-friendly environment, rather because of their home run friendly bullpen. The pen surrendered two home runs in a loss to Cleveland on Wednesday, the 32nd and 33rd home runs of the season allowed by Cincinnati relievers and the 27th and 28th in the seventh inning or later.
The team’s bullpen has been saddled with 12 of the teams first 25 losses and has converted just four of 13 save opportunities. But it’s not all on the bullpen. The starting pitching has been equally generous. Reds starters are averaging just more than five innings per start and only twice have thrown as many as seven innings in a start in the first 40 games of the season. No pen in baseball has given up as many runs, earned runs or home runs as Cincinnati’s battered and beaten group of relievers.
QUICK PICK
It’s tough to bet against the Dodgers when Kershaw is pitching, and if you have this season, you’d be losing money. LA is 8-1 in games started by their ace left-hander and he has a personal four-game winning streak in which he’s tossed two shutouts and given up just three runs total. It doesn’t matter what the Dodgers do offensively as long as they get at least one run to support Kershaw. They’ve done more than that by averaging better than five runs in his starts. I don’t see Finnegan blanking the Dodgers and when the Reds go to the pen, all hell can break loose.
MLB Odds: Los Angeles 5, Cincinnati 1
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