The Red Sox have used an explosive offense to stay near the top of the AL East for most of the season. The run-producing machine will get a stiff test from the right arm of Cleveland’s Danny Salazar, who quietly has morphed into one of the best in the AL.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
So far this year, the Indians are basically playing .500 baseball. Good enough to keep them neck-and-neck with the Royals and Tigers, as all three try to keep the first-place Chicago White Sox in sight in the AL Central. But will playing .500 ball be good enough the rest of the way?
It’s been a baffling stretch for the Tribe recently. They swept the Tigers for the second time this season and took two of three from Kansas City at the beginning of May. They then dropped two of three to Houston and Minnesota, teams struggling to get, and stay, out of the AL basement. Cleveland climbed a season-high three games over .500 with Wednesday’s win over Cincinnati, their third straight, and the over is 9-3-1 in the Tribe’s last 13 games overall.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Danny Salazar (4-2, 1.80 ERA) is coming off an eight-strikeout performance over 7.1 innings against Cincinnati on Tuesday. He allowed just one run on five hits in his fourth win of the season, and cruised behind an offense that supported him with 13 runs. Salazar walked just one, an encouraging sign after issuing six free passes in his previous start.
Salazar has punched out at least eight batters in all four of his May starts and has at least seven in all but one of his eight starts. Both of his career starts against the BoSox came last season when he went 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA. He tossed seven innings of one-run ball in an 8-2 victory at Fenway on Aug. 17, 2015.
Rick Porcello (6-2, 3.51 ERA) turned in his worst start of the season in a loss to the Royals on Tuesday. The sinkerballer gave up a home run among the eight hits against him and four earned runs with three strikeouts. The right-hander had posted six consecutive quality starts since giving up four runs in his season debut on Apr. 9.
The last outing was Porcello’s first start with fewer than five strikeouts. He still has 49 in 51.1 innings and his 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings is a main driver behind his 3.51 ERA. Porcello has won all four of his Fenway Park starts this year with a 3.00 ERA. He won just five times in 13 home starts last season.
LIVE BETTING
After reaching base five times against the Reds on Tuesday, Rajai Davis remained in a groove Wednesday in Cincinnati. In the third inning, Cleveland’s center fielder drilled a 3-2 fastball from Brandon Finnegan to deep left field for a solo shot that put the Tribe up 2-0 at the time. In the ninth, Davis’ two-run blast pulled the game into a 7-7 deadlock. The Indians won the game 8-7 in extra-innings.
“He’s the type of hitter that, when he gets hot, they’re going to come in bunches,” manager Terry Francona said of Davis. “Good for him and good for us. We’re a different team when he’s getting hits.” In the first three games against the Reds, Davis went 7 for 12 with nine runs scored and seven driven in.
QUICK PICK
Salazar may be the most overlooked starter in Cleveland’s rotation. But he’s doing his best to change that. He developed into an anchor of the staff with his 14 victories last season and he’s proving that wasn’t a fluke. He’s been better – much better – to start 2016. Salazar has given up just 27 hits in 50.0 innings and opponents have a measly .157 batting average against him. He’ll face a stiff challenge from the Red Sox, who love smacking the ball around the yard, but Salazar has silenced some good offenses this season. He hasn’t allowed more than five hits in any of his eight starts and has been consistently solid. There is no reason to think that’ll change on Sunday.
MLB Odds: Cleveland 5, Boston 4
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