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BookMaker is the only online sportsbook where you can get the earliest MLB moneylines, runlines, totals and props. If you want to wager on baseball odds like the pros do, you need to join BookMaker today! The ballgame between the Cleveland Indians and Boston Red Sox will take place Wednesday, August 2, 2017, at 7:05 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. The game will be televised live on ESPN.
The last three game series between these two teams wrapped up with the Cleveland Indians advancing to the AL Championship Series and the Boston Red Sox heading home. There will be less on the line for this three-game series finale on Wednesday night, but that doesn’t mean less eyes should be on ESPN for this contest. Both teams are in the heart of their respective division races and need as many wins as they can muster.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Suddenly the Indians are red hot and the Red Sox, who had a run of their own a bit earlier, have fallen out of first in the AL East.
Based on pure trends, the Indians should be favorites, but—of course—the Sox are hosting this series and are 10-games over .500 at home. That shouldn’t stop the Tribe, however, as they’ve been a better road team than home team in 2017.
On top of that, the confidence of beating the Sox when these teams last met in October should give Cleveland a little edge as well.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Rick Porcello makes this start for the Red Sox as he, once again, tries to re-find the form that made him a Cy Young Award winner a year ago. For now, however, he’s just the league leader in losses with 14.
At 4-14, things have been rough for Porcello. He’s pitching to a 4.55 ERA and 1.375 WHIP. He’s also allowed 25 home runs, including two in a four run, seven-inning performance in his last start.
Over his career, Porcello has been solid against the Tribe. He faced them frequently as a member of the Tigers, pitching to a 3.55 ERA.
In the end, Porcello hasn’t pitched as bad as his record—or ERA—suggests. Still, he’s far from the hurler he appeared to be last year as well. In the end, Porcello is a solid middle-of-the-rotation arm and little more. That, of course, is a useable piece, but the Sox cannot count on him to shutdown good offenses. While the Indians had their offensive issues this year, the Tribe still qualifies as a good offense.
With that, Boston will need to put runs on the board against the Indians’ starter: Trevor Bauer.
Bauer is as inconsistent at Porcello. He was a first round draft pick and has yet to live up to the hype. His stuff is still fantastic, but he cannot command it with any consistency.
This year, Bauer is 9-8, mostly thanks to great run support, with a 5.25 ERA and 1.458 WHIP. Based solely on the numbers, Porcello looks to be the better pitcher, but that’s not the whole story.
Unlike Porcello, Bauer’s last start was a very strong one. He went eight innings and allowed just a single run on seven hits. He walked just one batter in that game as well. Perhaps even more telling in the comparison between the two starters is the fact Bauer has just 14 homers allowed including none in his last four games and just three in his last 11. He’s got a 3.86 ERA since the start of June.
LIVE BETTING
Since the start of July, the Indians have scored 19 more runs than the Red Sox and hit .283 compared to .243 for Boston. Since the start of the second half, the Tribe has scored 23 more runs with an average of .276 to .220.
Since the break, Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley and Edwin Encarnacion have been hitting well, combining for 10 homers in 15 games.
The Indians have more power than the Red Sox. Cleveland has 14 more homers this year.
For Boston, offense is the real issue. The names are there, but the numbers have not been. Cleveland’s had some similar underperformances, but nothing to the extent of the Sox.
QUICK PICK
Eduardo Nunez and Rafael Devers have been nice sparks since joining the team. It certainly helps Boston to not have a black hole at third base. Is that enough, however?
Look for a close game on Wednesday, giving ESPN viewers and bettors alike a fun contest to the end.
Both Porcello and Bauer have given up their share of runs, so look for some early scoring. The bullpens, however, will decide the game and with that, the edge goes to the road team. The Indians have far more bullpen depth. While Craig Kimbrel can matchup with Cody Allen well, Andrew Miller and company setting up Allen are too much for Boston to contend with.
MLB Odds: Indians 6, Red Sox 5
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