The Chicago White Sox have really struggled over the course of the last week offensively, and running up against Corey Kluber and the Cleveland Indians on Wednesday might not ultimately help their issues any.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Indians might only be playing .500 ball this season on the road, but they have to come here to Chicago with some confidence. They went 6-4 in this building last year, and they did so with a lesser team than what they're putting out there on the field in 2016.
Still, it's really hard to argue with the White Sox this year. They've won 12 of their 21 games here at home, and even though they've dropped six of their last eight games headed into the new week, they're still +7.75 units for the campaign.
Better yet might be a look at the Chi Sox on the run-line. They're 24-20 this season and up 6.09 units, while Cleveland is only 17-24 and -5.72 units versus baseball's version of the point spread.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Corey Kluber has been killing bettors this year, and it isn't all his fault. He's cost Indians backers 5.77 units in his nine starts this season. This could conceivably be the first time this year in which he's an underdog.
Sure, Kluber has a 4.10 ERA, but he hasn't had a lot of help from his bullpen when he's left them with inherited runners, and the rest of his peripheral numbers are still pretty darn good. We'd like to see Kluber striking out a few more batters, but there's nothing wrong with an 8.80 K/9.
He has walked 10 batters in his last four games, but he's still only at 15 free passes for the season. The long ball isn't an issue either even though he's given up a dinger in each of his last two starts after not allowing one in three previous efforts.
Jose Quintana though, is finally breaking through after season after season in which he seemed to be right on the verge of something special. The lefty is 5-3 with a 1.98 ERA, and the only reason he isn't getting more attention is because Chris Sale is lighting the world on fire.
There's nothing wrong with backing Quintana on a regular basis, though. He's only walked 11 batters in 59 innings and has 52 strikeouts to show for his work to boot. He's a little wild at times, but that's quite alright so long as he's able to rein it in when he has to.
For as good as Quintana has been overall, he's been even more dominant at home. He's got a 1.91 ERA and a 0.88 ERA while pitching at the Cell this season, and though that clearly won't keep up, it's tough to not ride a pitcher when he's hot.
LIVE BETTING
This game features a tale of two closers which are very different yet strangely similar.
David Robertson is only 11-of-13 in save chances, but he's got a 1.02 ERA and a K/9 of 10.19. He's allowed just two runs, but both runs cost him a save.
Cody Allen is 10-for-10 in saves, but he's allowed 12 walks and three homers in just 19.2 innings. His 4.12 ERA is one of the worst amongst full-time closers this year, but he just keeps getting the job done.
That said, which man would you rather have in the ninth inning of a one-run game? Allen seems to be a ticking time bomb waiting to happen.
QUICK PICK
It's a little early in the year to be worried about the schedule all that much, but this is the last game of a long road trip for the Indians, and the fact that it's an afternoon game and getaway day has to work against them.
The White Sox haven't hit the ball well in recent games, failing to score more than three runs in five games in a row heading into this series, but this is where things can really change. Kluber is fantastic, but his bullpen is anything but. If the Sox can squeak a couple across early, this could end up being a relatively easy sixth win of the year for Quintana.
MLB Odds: White Sox 6, Indians 2
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