In what’s a pivotal four game set for the Tigers, the division leading Indians come to town with a chance to nail down the division. Detroit’s eyes are on the Wild Card picture where they’re still very much in the mix, but a likely celebration early in the series could have an interesting impact come Game 3 with Cleveland potentially positioned for the hangover and Detroit for the emotional letdown.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
For a team still very much in the playoff hunt at this point in the season, it’s rare to see another team own them as much as the Indians have owned the Tigers.
Cleveland is 13-2 against Detroit this season, outscoring the Tigers by 47 runs. That sort of dominance cannot be ignored and will be weighing on the Tigers’ shoulders as they enter this series of must-win games against Cleveland. The Tigers did finally get a win over the Indians in their last game, however, and their Wednesday’ pitcher, Trevor Bauer, was on the hill for the win.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Injuries have left Bauer as the Indians’ No.2 starter heading into the postseason. He gets the start on Wednesday as he prepares for his added responsibilities.
The 25-year old right-hander has always been a high-upside pitcher that’s not quite lived up to expectations. He’s 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA and 1.310 WHIP here in 2016.
The righty started the year in the bullpen, but has made 27 starts and has been serviceable in the rotation overall, but his last four starts have left plenty to be desired. After an 8.1 inning outing against the Twins on September 3, Bauer boasted a 3.70 ERA. Since then, he’s allowed 21 runs in 23.2 innings of work spread over four starts. He’s miraculously 2-2 in those four starts, but gave up at least four runs in each. He’s allowed five home runs in the span and has walked seven with 30 hits allowed.
Being division rivals, the Tigers have seen Bauer in three games this year, two starts. He’s 2-1 in those games, but has given up 11 runs and 17 hits in 14.2 innings. His first start back in May was respectable, but he allowed 10 hits and six runs in 5.2 innings in a loss on September 18.
Detroit also has its No.2 starter toeing the rubber in the person of 23-year old right-hander Michael Fulmer.
Before Gary Sanchez of the Yankees’ burst onto the scene, Fulmer was the odds on favorite to take the AL MVP award.
The rookie’s had a huge year with an 11-7 record, league leading 2.95 ERA and 1.086 WHIP in 25 starts.
He’s been limited a bit of late due to a desire to limit his work load and that’s thrown his schedule off. That’s shown up in the numbers, but he’s still generally put up solid outings. His last start was against the Royals where he allowed one run in seven innings. Before that, however, he thrown on an extended rest against the Indians, allowing six runs in five innings. He’s been on more normal rest on Wednesday.
LIVE BETTING
The Tigers have scored at least eight runs in five of their last seven games, winning all but one of those high scoring affairs.
Detroit’s been a very streaky team all year and the offense is part of that. Still, you can at least count of some offensive production from the Tigers with lineup featuring five batters with at least 20 home runs along with guys like Cameron Maybin, Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and Victor Martinez putting together strong OBP seasons, too.
Based on the names on the lineup card, it would seem as though the Indians don’t stack up, but the Tribe has been underrated on offense all year. In fact, Cleveland is second only to the Red Sox in terms of total run production in the American League.
The Indians have been consistent in their run scoring, too. Mike Napoli was a huge addition and is having a great season with 34 home runs and 100 RBIs. He also offers quality at bats and makes the pitcher work with one of the league’s highest number of pitches per plate appearance.
Carlos Santana realizing he can hit the ball out of the park to go along with his inflated OBP has been huge, too, but the biggest key to the Indian’s success on offense is balance. From Tyler Naquin to Jose Ramirez to Francisco Lindor to Jason Kipnis, this whole team knows how to handle a bat.
QUICK PICK
The Indians were supposed to succeed with their pitching, but Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar are gone. Still, if the Indians are to win this, it’ll be with pitching out of the pen.
The Indians’ offense can score, though the Tigers have the advantage going against Bauer compared to Fulmer. Look for Detroit to get out to the early lead, but bank on the Tigers’ bullpen giving the game back.
The pen continues to be a struggle in Detroit while the Indians can use Andrew Miller at any point in the game and then have Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw close the door in the back end with Dan Otero another viable arm at Terry Francona’s disposal.
The starting pitching matchup favors the Tigers, but the Indians have the advantage in the back end. Look for both offense to do damage and look for the over in the run lines, but for the winner, it’s hard to bet against a team that’s won 13 of 15 matchups to date.
MLB Odds: Indians 6, Tigers 5
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Cleveland Indians and Detroit Tigers is scheduled for Wednesday, September 28, 2016, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX Sports Detroit and Sports Time Ohio.
