Thursday marks the final regular season game between the Tigers and Indians as the season winds to a close. These teams will have different motivations as Detroit is still playing for a postseason spot and the Indians need to be sure their roster gets set up for a potential deep playoff run.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Indians are the kings of the AL Central. They’ve got the division locked down and have a .652 winning percentage against their divisional foes. They’re an even better 13-2 against their chief competitors: Detroit.
One thing that could factor in more so than these two team’s head-to-head records is a possible letdown after Cleveland clinches the division. They need just one win in the series to do that. If Terry Francona wants to rest some regulars afterwards, the Tigers could be the benefactor.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Carlos Carrasco’s injury has left Thursday’s starter for the Indians a bit of a question mark though it was Cody Anderson that filled in last time and could get the start again.
Anderson was 7-3 with a 3.05 ERA last year in his rookie campaign, but hasn’t been nearly as successful this season. The 26-year old right-hander has an ERA of 6.34 in 59.2 innings of work split between the bullpen and the rotation.
He lasted just two innings after rejoining the rotation a week ago in what was essentially a bullpen game. We’ll likely have another bullpen game on Thursday.
Cleveland has a strong bullpen that’s able to shoulder a larger load, but the Tigers need their starter—Daniel Norris—to give them length.
Norris hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his 13 major league appearances.
Overall, the 23-year old southpaw is 3-2 with a 3.59 ERA in 62.2 big league innings. He’s allowed his share of base runners, however, with a 1.436 WHIP driven by a 10.1 hit per nine inning ratio. He also struggles with command from time-to-time, but overall has a 3.15 strikeout to walk ratio.
The last time Norris faced Cleveland, he lasted just five innings, tossing 98 pitches. He did, however, limit the Indians to one earned run, but allowed three unearned runs. Despite that, he collected the win.
LIVE BETTING
Where did the offense go?
The Indians were positioned to close out the AL Central over the weekend. They beat Chicago 10-4 on Friday, but then scored just one run in a couple losses on Saturday and Sunday.
Did Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon really pitch that well or have we already started to see some of Cleveland’s letdown?
Generally speaking, the Indians’ offense is one of the best in the league and vastly underrated. After failing to show the power expected from him for years, Carlos Santana is finally mashing balls out of the park. Jason Kipnis continues to be a dynamic player while Francisco Lindor, Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin are all having stellar offensive seasons.
The Indians’ offense will face a southpaw on Thursday and are merely average against lefties with a .748 team OPS including the strong production from platoon specialist Brandon Guyer and his .333 average.
Flipping over to the Tigers, the names are more are bigger with Miguel Cabrera, but the production hasn’t been as big. Nevertheless, this order is seven deep in guys with an OPS+ over 100, including Justin Upton who somehow has managed to put up 28 home runs and 82 RBIs, numbers right in line with his career averages even with the early struggles.
QUICK PICK
The motivation lies with Detroit who needs to win to try and catch Baltimore in the Wild Card standings. The Indians will undoubtedly already have clinched in one of the earlier games in this series and there could be a letdown as a result.
Detroit won the last time Norris faced the Indians and will go up against collection of pitchers as Terry Francona pieces together this game.
The Indians are a spunky team able to get late wins and the Tigers’ bullpen is anything but reliable, but there’s still too much stacked against the Indians on Thursday. Look for Detroit to get one of few wins on the year against the Indians with the offense delivering in what should be a high scoring game that surpasses the run total.
MLB Odds: Tigers 8, Indians 6
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