The Los Angeles Angels get to ease into the season, but after four games against Oakland, the Halos will get their first real test of the season on Monday, kicking off a three-game series against the Cleveland Indians before circling back for another series against the A’s. Shohei Ohtani pitches on Sunday so that’s when all the press will be out for the Angels, but a Monday’s pitching matchup of J.C. Ramirez against Mike Clevinger may be the better matchup, at least until Ohtani gets his footing in the states.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Angels is scheduled for Monday, April 2, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN2.
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Odds Analysis
Cleveland swept both series against the Angels last year, outscoring Los Angeles by 17 runs in those six games, a nearly three runs per game better average. The Angels offense is better and the Indians’ bullpen is worse, but neither is enough to cover that gap.
Speaking of bullpens, there’s no doubt Cleveland will miss Bryan Shaw. He was the bridge to the Andrew Miller and Cody Allen tandem. That duo is still nails at the end of the game while arms like Nick Goody and Dan Otero can provide depth.
The Angels pen has some quality young arms, but is missing the proven, reliable veterans like Miller and Allen. Jim Johnson is a veteran presence, but his best years are behind him. Blake Parker and Cam Bedrosian are the big names in the back end, but the unit still feels like it’s missing a piece or two.
If you put any stock into spring training standings, the Indians were amongst the best in terms of record in the AL and Cactus League while the Angels were amongst the worst. Perhaps the bullpens have something to do with that.
Probable Pitchers
The Angels pieced together a pitching staff last year, but still managed to stay in the Wild Card hunt deep into September. One of the main reasons for that was the emergence of J.C. Ramirez as a starting pitcher.
Ramirez was a relief pitcher in parts of three seasons until last year. Ramirez pitched in 147.1 innings, double his previous high, and was 11-10 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.344 WHIP.
Admittedly, the WHIP was a bit high. Ramirez does need to lower the walks, induce weaker contact and up the strikeout totals. In a game where strikeouts are rising almost exponentially, Ramirez struck out just 6.4 batters per nine innings, preferring to induce weak contact instead. The problem with weak contact is sometimes it still finds holes.
Without a big strikeout pitcher, Ramirez is more at the mercy of his defense, but that’s not a bad thing with the likes of Andrelton Simmons and Zack Cozart behind him. Los Angeles really beefed up the defense this winter and a pitcher like Ramirez will really benefit from that.
The transition to starting was a success for Ramirez, but the right-hander was better on the road than at home last year. He had a 4.80 home ERA and 3-6 record. He’s pitching at home on Monday.
Ramirez came into his own last year as a starter and the same can be said for the Tribe’s Mike Clevinger.
Clevinger was the sixth man coming into the season, but still managed to nab 21 starts, pitching in 27 games and tallying 121.2 innings. He was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.249 WHIP.
The 27-year old right-hander had a good season and was better on the road than at home. He was also better as a starter—with a 2.84 ERA—than a reliever. Both those facts bode well for Cleveland on Monday.
The Cleveland hurler does have pronounced splits in his career, showing much better success against righties than lefties. That’s an issue he’ll have to tackle, but the Angels are a righty dominant lineup with Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena—and maybe Shohei Ohtani—the only notable lefties.
Clevinger has put together a strong spring heading into this start with a miniscule WHIP—albeit in a small sample size—and a high strikeout total.
Live Betting
The Indians offense outscored and out homered the Angels in 2017, but power wasn’t the focal point of either offense last year.
What draws the distinction for these teams at the plate is the Indians’ .339 team OBP, second highest in baseball.
Cleveland returns most of the same players from last year. The loss of Carlos Santana is a big blow in the OBP department, but Yonder Alonso is an optimistic replacement off a break out season.
With Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez switch hitters and Jason Kipnis, Alonso, Lonnie Chisenhall, Tyler Naquin and Bradley Zimmer all batting from the left side, the Cleveland offense is very susceptible to strong lefties out of the pen. Fortunately, Andrew Miller is on their side. Los Angeles has a righty on the bump and a right-handed dominant bullpen, the perfect matchup for Cleveland.
As for the Angels’ offense, it’s still Mike Trout and then the rest. Justin Upton is better protection, but Albert Pujols is still a middle of the order hitter despite being a below replacement level hitter over the last year.
Kole Calhoun is a good, but not great bat. The same can be said for Andrelton Simmons and Zack Cozart—unless you’re buying the breakout campaign with the bat last year.
MLB Pick
This is actually a pretty good, balanced pitching matchup with two pitchers who’ve gained some confidence over the last year, but still have plenty to prove at the Major League level.
The real differentiator in this game will come at the plate and in the bullpen. Cleveland has much more to rely on behind Clevinger than the Angels have behind Ramirez. The Indians’ lefty heavy bats also match up well against Los Angeles’s righty driven pitching staff.
Look for the Indians to get on-base enough against Ramirez to push a few early runs across the plate and build from there. Clevinger will maneuver around Trout enough to maintain the lead for a bullpen that—even without Bryan Shaw—is still good enough to offer three clean innings.
MLB Odds: Indians 5, Angels 4
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