The season is now one series in and some teams are left licking their wounds while others have made an early statement. The Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Indians fit into opposite groups with the Angels topping the Oakland Athletics in three of four games while the Tribe dropped two of three against the Seattle Mariners. The sole loss for the Angels came on Opening Day with Garrett Richards on the mound. He’ll get another shot on Tuesday against Josh Tomlin and the Indians. Cleveland is looking to make good on their preseason projections after a rough first series.
First pitch for the game between the Indians and Angels is scheduled for Tuesday, April 3, 2018, at 10:07 p.m. ET at Angels Stadium. The matchup will be shown on ESPN.
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Odds Analysis
The Indians haven’t had a great start to their season after one series. The team is waiting for Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez to start hitting. They also need their bullpen to get into midseason form.
Of course, there’s no need overacting off a single series. The same can be said of an Angels team that’s hosting the Indians after a four-game series win against the A’s, giving them some early confidence.
In 2017, the Indians won all six matchups between these two teams, outscoring them by 18 combined runs in those six games. Cleveland was also an excellent road team in 2017, winning 53 road games. While this is a different season, the Indians have a similar team to the won they sported a season ago.
On the other side, the Angels come into Tuesday’s game flying high. Mike Trout is already back in midseason, Mike Trout form while Justin Upton is an excellent protection plan.
Probable Pitchers
On stuff and stuff alone, Tuesday’s pitching matchup is quite a mismatch with Garrett Richards and Josh Tomlin going head-to-head.
Richards was one of the best pitchers in the AL 2014. That season, he was 13-4 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.038 WHIP in 168.2 innings, but his season was cut short due to injury. He was healthy in 2015 and went 15-12 with a 3.65 ERA over 32 starts.
All that is fine and well, but he hasn’t been healthy since. He made 12 combined starts in 2016 and 2017. Despite the limited action, when he did start, he was still very successful. He’s got a career ERA of 3.56 and a career FIP of 3.60.
With health being his primary concern, it stands to reason that since he’s making the start, we can expect a good performance, but he allowed four runs in five innings in his Opening Day start against a less accomplished Oakland A’s team so expecting a good outing against the Indians may be a bit much.
Still, he’s got a solid track record of success, though he’s been a bit more average in his career against the Tribe, pitching to a 4.40 ERA in two starts.
As for Tomlin, the 33-year old has a little more than three years on Tomlin in terms of age, but not a whole lot more experience.
The right-hander doesn’t have impressive stuff. If he’s to have success, he need to have excellent command and movement.
Command is typically on his side. He’s got a career walk rate of 1.3 per nine innings with a rate of 0.9 in 141 innings in 2017.
While the walk rate is low, so is the strikeout rate. Tomlin will allow contact. He encourages the opposition to put the ball in play and depends on his defense to record outs. The issue his last couple years has been a ballooning home run rate. In 56 games over the last two years, he’s allowed 59 bombs.
The home run woes could bite him on Tuesday with the likes of Trout, Upton and Pujols.
Live Betting
Lindor and Ramirez are the center of the Indians’ offense, but have had a slow start, playing a sizeable role in the Tribe’s series loss to the Mariners.
Lindor and Ramirez will come around. Three games are hardly a good gauge. On top of that, Jason Kipnis is swinging well and did throughout Spring Training, giving hope that this is a permanent thing. With Kipnis performing well, that certainly helps bring the rest of the lineup together.
Edwin Encarnacion has had strong career numbers against Richards, too, going 5-for-12 with a pair of homers and a double. He and Rajai Davis are the only Indians to have more than a few at bats against him. Davis is 1-for-12 in his career.
On the other side, Trout, Zack Cozart and Ian Kinsler all have a homer against Tomlin. Kinsler, Cozart, Trout, and Kole Calhoun all have strong overall numbers against Tomlin.
The Angels offense and starting pitching matchup well with Cleveland on Tuesday, but the bullpens are not close. The Angels have some good young arms, but lack experience. While Los Angeles doesn’t have a proven closer, the Indians have two: Andrew Miller and Cody Allen. Miller wasn’t in midseason form in his last start, but three hits in an inning isn’t something L.A. can expect on Tuesday.
MLB Pick
Richards should have a better outing in his second start than he had in his first. He’s got better stuff than Tomlin, too. Based solely on the starters, you’d have to give this one to the Angels, but don’t jump on that pitching mismatch too fast, even with this game being played in Anaheim.
Yes, the Angels are a better team than they were last year and they have a legitimate chance to make the postseason, but the Indians still stack up as one of the best teams in baseball. If they are to lose, it’ll probably come with Tomlin on the mound, but Cleveland has the superior bullpen and—even with some of its bats struggling—the better offense. Besides, Richards didn’t look particularly sharp in his last start.
MLB Odds: Indians 6, Angels 5
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