The Cleveland Indians are the team to beat in the AL Central, yet they find themselves in the division cellar through a couple of weeks. It was the Minnesota Twins that got off to the hottest start after being winless for so long last year. Of course, we knew the Twins weren’t going to stay on top and they’ve already relinquished the top spot in the division. Now, they’ll try to old their own in the third game of a four game series against what is ultimately the division’s top team.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Edwin Encarnacion signing has yet to really pay out as the former Jay has had a hard time making contact with 16 strikeouts. Even so, he provides a formidable presence in the middle of the lineup that’s hard to beat.
Around him are a couple middle infielders who have really been hot. Jose Ramirez moved over to second while Jason Kipnis has been out and he’s making 2016 look like it was not a fluke. He’s hitting .341 with three homers and a team leading 12 RBIs.
His season to date look great, but Francisco Lindor has out done him. He’s batting .349 with four homers and eight RBIs.
Yandy Diaz hasn’t been a great fill in for Kipnis, playing third in place of Ramirez, but outside of him, Encarnacion and the Yan Gomes/Roberto Perez duo behind the plate, the rest of the offense is coming around.
Michael Brantley looks healthy so far and Brandon Guyer will be on the field in this game. He’ll get the start against the southpaw and while he’s hitting just .125, he’s still a threat against a lefty.
Offensively for the Twins it’s been a mixed bag, particularly with the big name former prospects. Miguel Sano looks like they expected him to look last year with a 1.171 OPS. His power is there and he’s doing damage. Byron Buxton on the other hand is lost. He’s already struck out 21 times and has just four hits in 40 at bats.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
The Indians will send Trevor Bauer to the mound in Wednesday’s nationally televised showdown against the Twins. For Minnesota, it’ll be Adalberto Mejia on the hill.
After starting out the bullpen last year, Bauer eventually entered the playoffs as the team’s No. 2 starter due to injuries and disappointed in that role. While free of drone related injuries, the start to his 2017 campaign has also been a disappointment.
He allowed four runs in 5.2 innings in his season debut against the Diamondbacks and gave up six runs on eight hits, including a pair of homers in his second start, this one against the Tigers.
So far, in just 10.2 innings, he’s allowed three home runs and 15 hits.
The Twins haven’t really been a good matchup for Bauer in his career, either. He’s 1-5 with a 5.32 ERA in 11 career starts against the Twins and 0-1 with a 5.56 in four starts at Target Field.
Meanwhile, Mejia isn’t really the most trustworthy arm either. He’s 23-years old with a great deal of potential, but the young southpaw will be making just his third career start. The other two have both come earlier this year as he’s 0-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 1.650 WHIP. He’s only pitched 6.2 innings combined in two starts and has walked five batters and given up six hits telling a story of a pitcher who hasn’t been able to locate.
Last year, Mejia split his time between the Giants and Twins organizations and between Double and Triple-A, pitching to a 3.00 ERA and 1.121 WHIP in 132 combined innings.
LIVE BETTING
The Indians’ bullpen hasn’t yielded the results they were supposed to so far, but this pen is stacked. Cody Allen has been good so far and Andrew Miller has had six scoreless innings, giving up just five hits and no walks while striking out seven. He’s nearly mid-season form.
The others in the pen, like Boone Logan, Bryan Shaw and Dan Otero have taken their lumps, but provide plenty of good matchup options for Terry Francona.
The Twins’ bullpen has been much better than most thought. Brandon Kintzler is the closer and he’s had 5.1 scoreless frames. It starts from him, but the rest including Matt Belisle, Tyler Duffey and others have combined to allow just six total runs in 35.1 total innings. That’s not too shabby.
QUICK PICK
The Twins’ early season run was fun, but there’s no question which team is the better team. Bauer is concerning as a starter for the Indians. He’s the weak point to an otherwise stacked rotation, but the Indians have the better offense and the better bullpen and should be able to pull this out, particularly considering they’re facing a starter who is far less experienced than Bauer and has struggled in his starts.
Look for a higher scoring affair as the Twins’ offense gets to Bauer early, but the bullpen holds Minnesota right there and allows a rather strong offense to do their thing and capture a close win, even on the road.
MLB Odds: Indians 7, Twins 6
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