If you’re not wagering with BookMaker Sportsbook then you’re just another square bettor. Shop for MLB lines where the pros do so register for your own betting account at BookMaker now! The NL Wild Card game pitting the Colorado Rockies versus the Arizona Diamondbacks will commence Wednesday, October 4, 2017, at 8 p.m. ET at Chase Field. The playoff contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
The Colorado Rockies punched their ticket to the postseason on Saturday, making their loss to the Dodgers on Sunday meaningless. The Arizona Diamondbacks’ game on Sunday also had no impact on the postseason, though they came away with the 14-2 win over the Royals and plenty of momentum. Arizona certainly looks like the complete package and should figure as the deserving heavy favorites in this matchup.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
These two divisional foes are very familiar with each other. That’s better news for the Diamondbacks than the Rockies. Arizona is 11-8 against Colorado on the year, outscoring them in the 19 games by 32 runs.
After an impressive first half, posting a .571 winning percentage, the Rockies were merely an average team down the stretch, posting a below-.500 record in the second half.
The Rockies’ pitching has been a huge part of the downward turn for the team. It’s not surprising either as Colorado is very dependent on many young arms and others, like Greg Holland in the ninth, coming off serious injuries.
Despite that, the Rockies have persistent. In September, their ERA falls in the middle of the pack in the league and the team continues to boast a strong offense.
While the Rockies players do have significant home/road split differences given their home park is Coors Field, there are still several superstars from Charlie Blackmon who set the leadoff hitter RBI record to Nolan Arenado who has a combination of glove and bat unparalleled in the game.
Arizona’s offense, however, features a MVP hopeful of their own in Paul Goldschmidt along with J.D. Martinez who has been remarkable since joining the D-Backs. In just 62 games, he’s slugged 29 home runs and has a .302/.366/.741 slash line.
These two teams each have the offense—and power—to make bad pitching suffer. In a ballpark like Chase Field, there’s enough pop to make a difference even against good pitching. Given the relative parity at the dish, however, the names on the mound may make all the difference.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
There’s been some back and forth on who the Diamondbacks should throw in this game. The controversy has less to do with who can beat the Rockies and more about who lines up better as the No. 2 to start the NLDS against the Dodgers.
Arizona has a couple starters better than anyone that the Rockies can throw. While they could go with Robbie Ray, they’ll send their ace, Zack Greinke to the mound.
Greinke has a higher ERA than Ray, but is the veteran arm. He’s seen the postseason before and has pitched well. He’s also walking half as many per game and boasting a lower WHIP despite fewer strikeouts and more hits allowed.
The veteran has absolutely dominated at home. He’s 13-1 with a 2.87 ERA at Chase Field. He’s also 2-1 in five starts against the Rockies in 2017 with a 3.41 ERA. It’s a bit high due to six homers allowed in 34.1 innings. He’s not in Coors so that should help, but he’ll still need to avoid the longball. If he does that, he’s golden.
On the other side, the Rockies will be giving the ball to Jon Gray to make the start.
Unlike the D-Back’s the Rockies’ decision to go with Gray was more out of necessity than anything. Sure, Gray’s pitched well when he’s been on the mound, but with a 10-4 record and 3.67 ERA, he’s the only starter with a sub-4 ERA. He’s also one of the fresher arms, too, since he’s only made 20 starts due to injury.
If Greinke’s on his game and pitching like he’s pitched at home this season, then Gray’s only hope is to keep Arizona close enough and hope that Fernando Rodney blows it in the end.
Nevertheless, all hope is not lost. Gray is pitching well right now. He’s allowed three runs or fewer in every start since July 19. He doesn’t always dominate, but he won’t get you blown out either.
LIVE BETTING
Based on the names, neither bullpen is lockdown and that’s where these prolific offenses can take over.
The D-Backs’ do have a better bullpen ERA than the Rockies by a considerable margin on the year at 3.82 to 4.38, but that doesn’t change the fact that even with 39 saves, Rodney is a 40-year old former elite closer with a 4.31 ERA and 4.3 walks per nine innings. Sure, Rodney still has strike out stuff. He’s sat down 64 in 54.1 innings, but he’s not the lockdown guy you want in the ninth.
Greg Holland is the better closer. He’s shown some fatigue in the second half, however. Still, looking solely at the ninth, the edge goes to Colorado.
As for the rest of the pen, Archie Bradley is the difference maker and the Rockies have no comparable. He’s been consistently good from start to finish, embracing the role change. With a 1.73 ERA in 73 innings, he’s essentially Torey Lovullo’s Andrew Miller. That’s a huge X-Factor.
QUICK PICK
This is a battle of two top tier offenses, each boasting several huge bats from Arenado and Blackmon to Goldschmidt and Martinez. Either offense can go off, hanging a crooked number on the other at any time.
The starters figure to keep the offenses in check, at least through the first five or six frames. From there, however, things could go off line.
In the end, the D-Backs have been playing better baseball down the stretch. They have the better bullpen and they have the more dependable offense outside of the thin air at Coors.
At this point, it’s almost easier to expect a homer from J.D. Martinez whenever the Diamondbacks play and while Goldschmidt’s end to the season wasn’t great, he’s a start player that’ll do something big to help advance Arizona to the NLDS to take on the Dodgers.
MLB Odds: Diamondbacks 7, Rockies 4
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