The Chicago Cubs’ quest to be the first team to notch a World Series repeat victory since the 2000 Yankees will continue their early season road tour in Wisconsin as they journey to Miller Park to take on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brew Crew actually held their own against the Cubbies a season ago, taking eight of the 19 meetings as Chicago only outscored the Brewers by four runs, 79-75.
This series will be contested from Friday, April 7, 2017 through Sunday, April 9, 2017 at Miller Park in Milwaukee. Saturday’s game can be seen on the MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
When the Cubs match up against most teams, they hold a significant edge in terms of their probable starters, but that is especially true for this weekend’s series.
The Friday matchup between Brett Anderson and Jimmy Nelson is probably the most balanced as Saturday Kyle Hendricks is paired up with Tommy Milone and Sunday features Jake Arrieta opposite Zach Davies.
Anderson is the newcomer to the Cubs’ staff. He’s been one of those pitchers with a ton of talent, but an inability to stay on the field throughout his career. The 29-year old has a career ERA of 3.86, but has made more than eight starts just once since 2011.
Anderson is good when he’s on the mound which is more than can be said for Nelson who has good stuff, but cannot control it. He led the NL in losses last year with 16 and also held the dubious honor of walking the most batters in the league with 86 and hitting the most with a pitching. His 17 HBP led the league for the second straight year.
Milone gets the start on Saturday for the Brew Crew thanks to an injury to Junior Guerra. Milone relieved Guerra after his injury and allowed two runs in two innings of work. He’s been a swing-guy and a depth guy most of his career, your typical 4-A type player. Given Milone will be matched up against the pitcher that led the major leagues in ERA last year, it’s a bit of a mismatch.
Hendricks finished third in the MVP voting last year with a 2.13 ERA in his 31 games. While it’s easy to chalk up his season as a bit of a fluke due to limited velocity, he’s a command and control guy and has a 2.92 career ERA now in three big league seasons.
The most interesting storyline for the Sunday matchup is that both starters are products of the Orioles’ farm system, but neither found much success in Baltimore as Arrieta was eventually acquired by the Cubs for Scott Feldman while Davies was dealt to Milwaukee before making his major league debut.
Arrieta has become a legitimate ace after winning the 2015 Cy Young Award with a 22-6 record and 1.77 ERA. He regressed in 2016, but still ended up 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA. In his 2017 debut, he lasted six innings against the Cardinals, giving up just one unearned run on four hits, recording the win.
Davies, meanwhile, has been pretty good since making his big league debut in 2015. He was 11-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 28 starts last year, but was rocked in his 2017 debut against Colorado, giving up six runs on nine hits and four walks in just 4.1 innings.
Offensive Breakdown
Really, there’s no comparison. It’s hard for any team to matchup with a Cubs’ roster that features MVP level talent on the corners along with other bats like Kyle Schwarber, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Ben Zobrist and Willson Contreras.
The Brewers’ offense certainly doesn’t share that same pedigree, but Jonathan Villar did make quite a name for himself last year while Ryan Braun—for all of his warts—is still a former MVP.
Those two have both already homered this year along with Eric Thames and Travis Shaw. That gives Milwaukee four times the number of homers in this early stage of the season than the Cubs.
Is this Brewers’ offense that has 16 runs in three games for real? Maybe. Keon Broxton, Domingo Santiago an Orlando Arcia have yet to get much of anything going while the four providing the early season pop do have at least some level of past success, even if Thames’ is all in the Korean League.
Of course, the Cubs will be much better than the Brewers offensively when all is said and done in 2017, but for now Milwaukee’s bats are swinging it.
Betting Trends
The Cubs were just 4-5 ATS in the nine games against the Brewers in Milwaukee last year and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings against the Brew Crew overall.
Despite ending the year 16-games under-.500, the Brewers were just at -$24 for their season ending moneyline record. The Cubs finished the season at 103-58, but were just $299 on the overall moneyline.
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