This four-game showdown between the Chicago Cubs and the Milwaukee Brewers may be the best remaining series of the year, at least when it comes to playoff implications. The NL Central is one of two divisions still undecided. The Brewers have a huge uphill battle, but a sweep puts them in the top-spot and a series win closes the gap, keeping them statistically in the division race into the season’s final week. Of course, the Cubs could also—for all intents and purposes—close out the division this weekend. Even if that’s the case, the Brew Crew remain in play for the Wild Card.
This series will be contested from Thursday, September 21, 2017 through Sunday, September 24, 2017 at Miller Park in Milwaukee. All four games of this series will be broadcast nationally with Thursday’s game on MLB Network, Friday’s contest on ESPN and WGN, Saturday’s showdown on FOX and Sunday’s game covered on TBS.
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Pitching Matchups
For the Brewers, it’s the pitching that’s kept this team relevant and one of the biggest stories in this rotation is Zach Davies. He gets the start on Thursday.
Davies has already faced the Cubs four times in 2017, pitching to a 3.96 ERA in those four starts. He could be even better Thursday. Save for his last outing where he allowed six runs against the Marlins, he did have a string of six straight starts where he allowed two runs or fewer. That came on the heels of a six-run game against the Twins in early August.
The young right-hander has had a great year. He’s tied for first in baseball with 17 wins and has a 3.89 ERA. The Brewers just wish this game was on the road, Davies has a 5.67 ERA in 14 starts at Miller Park, but is 9-3 with a 2.50 ERA in 17 starts away from home.
Countering Davies will be Jake Arrieta. Like Davies, Arrieta is a former Orioles’ farm hand that blossomed after leaving Baltimore.
Arrieta will be making his first start since September 4 so he could be rusty without a chance to pitch a rehab start due to the end of the minor-league season. Instead, he’ll be eased back into duty at the big-league level. He was pitching better in the second half and is 14-9 with a 3.48 ERA and 1.198 WHIP.
Arrieta is the clearly better starter—particularly with Davies at home. The question is: just how ready is he given his injury?
As the series moves on, the matchup shifts to the grizzled veteran John Lackey against the rookie right-hander Brandon Woodruff.
Woodruff will be making his seventh career start for the Brewers and has allowed three or less runs in five of his starts to date. The No. 4 prospect in the Milwaukee system, Woodruff has more than held his own during his brief stint.
Lackey, on the other hand, is coming off a 4.2 inning game in his last start and has appeared especially agitated with the umpires in the last couple games. Lackey’s a known hot-head. He’s also now little more than a mediocre pitcher. He’s 11-11 with a 4.62 ERA. That said, while he’s 1-2 against Milwaukee this year, that one win did come at Miller Park.
The second half of this series presents a pair of interesting pitching matchups with Kyle Hendricks opposite of Brent Suter on Saturday and Jose Quintana looking to close things out with a win for the Cubs on Sunday against Chase Anderson.
As to Saturday’s matchup, Hendricks is throwing exceptionally well right now. In his last 11 starts, he’s pitching to a 2.42 ERA. Nevertheless, the Brewers have hit him well this years. Suter, on the other hand, is still bouncing back from a strained rotator cuff. He’s got a 3.41 ERA in 20 games with Milwaukee, but will be limited to about 80 pitches in the game.
In the series finale, Quintana will bring a 6-3 record and 3.95 ERA in his dozen starts with the Cubs to the table. Save for an injury, Anderson has been the Brewers’ ace. He’s only pitched in 23 games, but is 11-3 with a 2.74 ERA.
Offensive Breakdown
The Cubs’ offense is ranked fifth in baseball in runs scored and has been the most prolific since the All-Star break with a .828 cumulative OPS.
In September, Chicago has regressed a bit, but the Cubbies are still a strong team with the bat. The super star duo of Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant put this team a step ahead of Milwaukee off the bat, but Eric Thames, Travis Shaw, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana all have an OPS+ of at least 121 for the Brew Crew.
Most recently, Chicago has seen Kyle Schwarber step up after a rough start. He’s batting .289 with a .973 OPS in September, slamming four homer sin 13 games and getting on base at a .341 clip. Albert Almora is also getting big hits. The young outfielder is getting more playing time and producing. He leads the Cubs with 14 September RBIs despite only 31 at bats.
As to Milwaukee, only Shaw of the big four is slumping this month. The third baseman is batting .217, but each of Santana, Braun and Thames have OPS numbers for the month over 1.000 and averages of at least .315. All four have hit at least three homers while Neil Walker has added three homers and a .393 OBP to the mix.
Milwaukee’s offense has been up-and-down all year. The talent is there, but can they click in this crucial series?
Bullpen Comparison
Overall, the Cubs and Brewers have seen similar bullpen production. The two teams are each slightly better than average per team bullpen ERA with Chicago getting the ever so slight edge.
The Cubs do have the better depth and should do a better job bridging to the ninth inning. While Wade Davis is a great closing option for the Cubs, he doesn’t get the edge over Corey Knebel who has a 1.29 ERA and 37 saves. Both are pitching well right now.
In addition to Knebel who has struck out 13 in 6.1 innings, Anthony Swarzak is a good set up option. Jeremy Jeffress is also an experienced back end guy who’s thrown a lot better since leaving Texas.
For Chicago, there are more options, but with Koji Uehara and Hector Rendon out, things are tighter. Even with Justin Wilson’s struggles, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr. are two big, young arms. Brian Duensing has also shown to be a reliable reliever.
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