The Chicago Cubs are sitting around .500 and after a rough start the St. Louis Cardinals are atop the NL Central standings. These two divisional rivals will meet in a best of three series over the weekend with bragging rights and—perhaps—the division top spot on the line; though the Reds may have something to say about that as well. Whatever the case, you can always count on these two teams to battle it out as they make up one of the sport’s oldest and most storied rivalries.
This series will be contested from Friday, May 12, 2017 through Sunday, May 14, 2017 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. The games set for Friday and Sunday will be shown on MLB Network for those out of the local markets while Saturday’s game and Sunday’s game will be shown live on Fox Sports 1 and WGN respectively.
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Pitching Matchups
The Cubs rode their starting five to the Championship last year and all but Jason Hamel are back, but the results have been different so far this year. Meanwhile, it was a rotational collapse that allowed the Cards to slide from the best team in baseball in 2015 to missing the playoffs last year.
Now, St. Louis is sitting with their rotation rolling—with the exception of Adam Wainwright who doesn’t figure to make a start in this series. Instead, the Cardinals will turn to Mike Leake on Friday night and then give the ball to Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez on Saturday and Sunday.
The Cubs haven’t announced their starter for Friday as it would normally be Brett Anderson’s spot though he’s now back on the disabled list. They’ll turn to Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, respectively, on Saturday and Sunday. For Friday’s start, the team could juggle starters around due to off days or could give the ball to Eddie Butler who has been pitching at Triple-A or to Mike Montgomery who has a 1.17 ERA in 23 innings this season in the pen. Montgomery was in competition with Anderson for the fifth starter spot in the spring and was noticeably upset after losing the role, but has rebounded to pitch well. He made a few starts for the team last year, too.
Montgomery has been preparing to start of late given the struggles of the rotation. Arrieta has been part of those struggles. He’s 1-4 with a 5.35 ERA in seven starts and has been incredibly hittable. His FIP indicates a bit of unluckiness, but all in all, he’s throwing more like he did in his years in Baltimore than he has since getting to Chicago. The pressure of pitching for a contract could be getting to him.
On the positive side for the Cubbies, in his only start against the Cards this year, he lasted six innings without giving up an earned run. But that was his first game of the year and he’s given up at least three in every game since. Still, he’s 8-2 with a 1.71 ERA against the Cards in his career.
As for Lester, he and Kyle Hendricks are the only two throwing the ball up to expectations—or at least close to it. Lester is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA in seven starts and has kept the ball in the yard and thrown 40 strikeouts in 41.1 innings.
As for the Cardinals’ starters, they’re all pitching very well. Leake, for instance, is 4-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 0.942 WHIP. He’s not as good as those numbers suggest, but he’s much better than he looked last year. He’s a career 3.92 ERA pitcher who keeps his team in the game. This year, he’s leading the league in ERA, FIP and home runs rate, giving up just one in 40.1 innings.
Wacha was handed the fifth spot in the rotation after Anthony Reyes’ injury and he’s ran with it. He’s 2-1 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.145 WHIP. His fastball/changeup combination looks like the pitcher that took the postseason by storm a few years ago and he’s finally healthy. His command has been excellent.
Sunday’s starter is the ace of this team. Carlos Martinez didn’t look like that for four starts after a dominating showing against the Cubs on Opening Night, but he’s been good in his last two starts with back-to-back quality starts. His cumulative ERA is now down to 3.86 and dropping.
Names to Remember
With Dexter Fowler banged up and Stephen Piscotty on the disabled list, the Cardinals have turned to 21-year old Magneuris Sierra straight out of Single-A Palm Beach. The youngster out of the Dominican Republic has great skills, but is still raw.
Nevertheless, in his first three games, he went 5-for-15 with a walk. He’s a scrappy hitter who has Cardinals fans reminiscing on the play of Willie McGee.
There’s no doubt he’s not polished enough to stick in the majors permanently right now, he still needs to be tested in the upper-minors with teams getting scouting reports on him and making the necessary adjustments to see how he reacts, but for now, Sierra could be a nice short terms lightning-in-a-bottle type of player.
While the Cardinals are missing Fowler, so are the Cubs. The former Chicago centerfielder was a catalyst for this offense last year and now the outfield is dealing with subpar performances and injuries. Jason Heyward has bounced back some from last year, but he’s on the DL. Meanwhile, Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .200 and Ben Zobrist is batting only .215. The tandem of Jon Jay and Albert Almora was supposed to be part of a solution in center—along with some of Heyward as well—but both players have been seeing increased playing time. The two are each hitting well each with an OPS+ of 110 or better while Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Schwarber and Zobrist are all still not providing league average production at the dish.
Lockdown Bullpen
The Cubs’ bullpen ERA is 2.89 compared to the Cardinals’ 4.31, but St. Louis’s numbers are skewed by a terrible start. In May, so far, the Cards have a 1.23 ERA in 29.1 innings and the Cubs are in line with their season numbers at 2.92.
Chicago’s biggest names behind that consistency are Mike Montgomery, who may be moving to the rotation, and Wade Davis. Carl Edwards Jr. is a big part of the equation, too.
Davis has thrown 14.1 innings, allowing just four hits and four walks, striking out 18 and not allowing a run in route to seven saves. Edwards has thrown 14 innings with the same four hits and four walks except he’s struck out 19, but he has allowed one run, on a home run.
That’s a combined 28.1 innings and just one run allowed. Currently, between those two and Montgomery, a reliever makes up three of the top six players in current rWAR for this team in 2017.
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