The final chapter in the 2017 version of the storied rivalry, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Chicago Cubs in a best of four series, hoping for much better results than the last time these two teams squared off. Last weekend, the Cubs swept the Cardinals, outscoring them 16-6. That was in Chicago, but the Cubs have dominated this season series regardless of venue, winning 11 of 15.
This series will be contested from Monday, September 25, 2017 through Thursday, September 28, 2017 at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. All four games will be shown on national television with the games on Tuesday and Wednesday on ESPN while Monday’s game will be on MLB Network with Thursday’s game on WGN.
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Pitching Matchups
The series starts with the Cardinals facing Cubs’ lefty Jon Lester, again. Lester has made four starts against St. Louis and is 1-1 with a 3.28 ERA. He’s pitched mostly like himself against the Cardinals despite a down year.
Lester is 11-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.344 WHIP in 169.2 innings. Nagging injuries have been an issue and could’ve been behind his uneven last start against the Rays. He allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings in that start without getting a strikeout. Lester insists he’s healthy, but he’s not pitching like it.
Whether via grit or something else, the veteran southpaw has been able to deliver against the Cubs’ biggest rival. Can he do it again?
Given the pitching matchup, he may have to if the Cubs are to get the win. St. Louis will send Luke Weaver to the mound to kick off this crucial series.
Weaver is not pitching like a rookie. He’s won seven straight decisions and posted a 1.49 ERA since taking over for Adam Wainwright in the rotation. Split between the rotation and the pen, Weaver is 7-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 1.025 WHIP. He’s striking out 11.1 per nine innings and walking less than two, giving him a 5.91 strikeout to walk ratio and generally keeping him out of serious trouble on the bump.
Weaver has been a huge part of what’s kept this less-than-ideal team in the playoff hunt. He’s stepped up big and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a game in his last eight starts. He hasn’t allowed a single earned run in four of his last seven starts.
The series progresses with a fun matchup of aces on Tuesday as Jake Arrieta and Carlos Martinez square off.
The Cubs scorched Martinez the last time he pitched against them, scoring seven runs in 5.1 innings back on September 15. He’s now allowed 11 runs and 15 hits in 11.2 innings over his last two starts. Before this latest bump in the road, Martinez did have a 2.85 ERA over his previous eight games. St. Louis needs him to get back to that. He’s got a 3.18 home ERA. That certainly helps.
As for Arrieta, the right-hander is still working his way back from a DL stint. He’s getting his work in at the Major-League level since the Minor-League season is over. He went 71 innings in his last start. He went five innings, allowing one run. He should go deeper on Tuesday.
The series continues Wednesday with the ever-passionate John Lackey against Michael Wacha on the mound.
Lackey was ejected the last time he faced the Cardinals and pitched just 4 innings in his last start due to his struggles. He’ll be determined to get deeper in the game Wednesday. Lackey’s numbers aren’t great this year. He’s seen he’s allowed a league leading 36 home runs and the Cubs have the bats to take advantage of that.
Much like Lackey, Wacha has been anything but the model of consistency. He’s been up-and-down, but after a rough August, he’s pitched to a 2.64 ERA in his last five starts. He’s 12-8 with a 4.00ERA in his 29 starts. His 3.63 FIP is encouraging thanks to a low home run total and solid strikeout numbers, but his walks are still a bit of a concern from time-to-time.
The series finally wraps on Thursday with both teams sending their most underrated—and possibly best—starters to the mound with Kyle Hendricks and Lance Lynn toeing the rubber.
Hendricks is 7-5 with a 3.14 ERA in 23 starts. His 1.196 WHP is great. His only knock is the lack of strikeouts, but he’s exhibited for a couple years now that he can exceed his FIP due to inducing weak contact.
As for Lynn, he’s 11-8 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.224 WHIP. He’s a very similar pitcher to Hendricks in that he’s not a dominating force, but he gets outs. He does have 3.7 walks per nine innings to contend with and does have 26 homers allowed. That leads to a much higher FIL than the one Hendricks boast. Still, these two pitchers have been the most likely to get the job done for their respective teams despite bigger names in the rotation.
Who's Hot?
It’s been a revolving door in the Cardinals lineup. Tommy Pham has been a surprisingly consistent force, but guys like Paul DeJong have stepped up when others like Aledmys Diaz have been major disappointments.
Lately, St. Loui has seen Matt Carpenter get hot again. He’s only efficient at the top of the lineup, but when he’s there, he’s good. In September, he has a .462 OBP and a 1.045 OPS as he also leads the team in homers.
The Cardinals lineup has stepped it up this month. Dexter Fowler is batting .333 this month with a 1.085 OPS in 13 games. Jose Martinez is batting .362 in September, but a finger injury could jeopardize him for this series.
In Chicago, there’s no surprise the Cubs have been playing some of their best baseball. A simple look at their lineup shows most players clicking. Kyle Schwarber looks like Kyle Schwarber rather than the player we saw most the year. He’s batting .273 with five homers in 17 September games. Right now, Albert Almora is also collecting big hit after big hit. He leads the team in September RBIs with 14.
In the bullpen, Wade Davis has bounced back after a hiccup. He’s saved five of six in September. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr. and Hector Rendon have been great setting him up the last few weeks.
Who's Not?
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been as up-and-down as any part of this team in 2017. Brett Cecil was a terrible offseason acquisition, but he’s been generally okay in September. The addition of Juan Nicasio, however, has been huge.
Nicasio may not be able to pitch in October—if the Cards make the postseason—but he’s been a big piece and is closing out games. The reason is simple: Trevor Rosenthal is injured and Seung Hwan Oh continues to underproduce. He’s still struggling with the long ball, allowing two in his last five games.
On the other side, the Cubs have seen Justin Wilson slump. He was added to help balance the bullpen, but has allowed seven walks in 4.2 innings in September. He’s also allowed six runs, all earned.
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