The San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs met in the NLDS last year after both teams had a blistering hot first half. From there the Giants stumbled because of their inconsistent bullpen and questionable offense while the Cubs surged. This season, however, both were early season disappointments, yielding depressingly low moneylines. The Giants, of course, are amongst the worst teams in baseball now while the Cubs are at least in playoff position, but even when they look like they’re about to go on a roll, the team fumbles just enough to keep bettors skeptical and the other teams close enough in the standings to have a chance.
This series will be contested from Monday, August 7, 2017 through Wednesday, August 9, 2017 at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Monday's clash is being shown live on ESPN while the games on Tuesday and Wednesday can be seen on the MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
The series kicks off in a lopsided battle with Jake Arrieta throwing the ball well against Matt Moore who has not recorded a win since June 20.
The first half was a bit inconsistent for Arrieta who looked to be putting too much pressure on himself going into his walk year. He’s settled down over the last six outings, pitching to a 2.08 ERA and looking every bit the part of an ace.
In his last start, Arrieta threw seven innings of one-run ball against a very strong Diamondbacks’ offense.
Even with his poor first half, Arrieta is 10-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 1.198 WHIP, making him an above average starter for the season. He’s home run rate is a bit elevated this year. His walk rate and strikeout rates are the same—or even a bit better—compared to last year and his career averages.
In his career against the Giants, Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.908 WHIP, most of those numbers coming against a San Francisco lineup better than the dismal one they’ve utilized this year.
As for Matt Moore, his struggles this year have been far bigger than Arrieta and don’t appear to be subsiding.
The southpaw is 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA in his 22 starts. He’s allowed 11 runs in 17.1 innings over his last three starts and has continued to show issues with command. He’s walked seven in his last two games and he’s allowed a home run in five straight starts.
Moore is a better pitcher than he’s showed this year. We’ve seen it in the past, however, the only thing he has going for him in the series opener is his numbers are much better at home than on the road. He’s 2-7 with a 4.59 ERA at home and has a 7.23 ERA on the road.
As the series progresses, the Cubs will start Jose Quintana and Kyle Hendricks with the Giants going with Ty Blach and Madison Bumgarner.
Quintana has already made four starts with the Cubs. In the first three, the southpaw threw quality starts. His last start, on the other hand, was a rough one, allowing six runs in five innings against the Diamondbacks. Still, he’s a six-year veteran with a 3.53 career ERA, primarily in the AL. This year, he’s go t a 4.42 ERA in 22 combined starts between the Cubs and White Sox.
As for Blach, the righty is 7-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 25 games—including 18 starts. His numbers are particularly strong considering he’s struck out only 60 batters in 121 innings. At the same time, he’s only walked 26 and only allowed 10 homers.
He induces weak contact. While he cannot strike someone out to get out of a jam with any consistency. He tends to be able to keep damage to a minimum. His only issue is that lucky plays a factor. Weak grounders in the right place are still hits.
In the series finale, Hendricks will try and build off his first quality start since coming back off the DL. He threw seven innings, allowing three runs against the Nationals in that start. That’s impressive considering the Washington offense.
Overall, Hendricks is a control specialist who will need his control on point. He’s walked just two in 16.1 innings since coming off the DL.
Bumgarner is just 1-5 this season and the Giants are just 1-8 in his nine starts. Despite that, the ace has a 2.88 ERA and has thrown three quality starts in his five outings since coming off the DL. In those five starts, he’s just 1-2, but has allowed 10 runs in 32.1 innings.
Who's Hot?
Willson Contreras has 19 home runs this season and has been one of the most prolific offensive catchers in the league, but 10 of those homers have come in the second half. He’s averaging a long ball every other game played since the All-Star break.
In addition to the power, Contreras has also provided average on on-base percentage with a .346/.414/.782 slash line. He has struck out 15 times, but has 27 hits in his 78 at bats, with more than half of those hits being for extra bases.
There’s no doubt the talented catcher is a big part of the Cubs’ second-half turn around, but he’s not alone. The pitchers have started to pitch much better, too, and some of that credit goes his way.
In addition, Javier Baez and Addison Russell are each hitting over .300 in the second half while Anthony Rizzo is batting .266 with six homers and a .921 OPS. Even Kyle Schwarber is looking more like his old self. He’s batting .254 with a .576 slugging percentage since the break.
On the Giants’ side of things, Gorkys Hernandez has looked good lately. He’s batting .312 since the break and has a .357 OBP.
On the mound, don’t look now, but Sam Dyson seems to have rebound himself for Bruce Bochy and the Giants. He’s pitching to a 1.80 ERA since the break.
Who's Not?
It’s hard to find a struggling Cubs player right now. The offense is rolling and the pitching has turned the corner.
Justin Wilson looks to be a good left-handed addition to the pen in his first couple looks. Meanwhile, Wade Davis, Pedro Strop, Brian Duensing and gang continue to produce. Overall, the only player that could fit into this category for Chicago would be Carl Edwards Jr. The talented reliever was a huge part of the strong first-half bullpen, setting up for David. He’s struggling in his last 11 appearances, going 0-2 with a 9.64 ERA, allowing 10 runs in 9.1 innings while walking 11. He has struck out 14 in that time so his stuff is still nasty. It’s the command that’s gone MIA.
The list of underachievers for the Giants is much longer. Joe Panik Is just 16-for-72. Really, the only batters other than Hernandez and Buster Posey that’s been even mildly productive in the second half are Brandon Belt and Eduardo Nunez. Belt is on the DL and Nunez is now in Boston.
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