Two and a half months in and the Chicago Cubs are still just floating around the .500 mark without any real direction. Kyle Schwarber is no longer seeing every day at bats. Addison Russell is amid a Domestic Abuse investigation. And, Kris Bryant leads all starters with a .267 average. The pitching has been nearly as inconsistent. Nevertheless, they’ll look to get back on a track against a New York Mets’ team with the worst ERA in baseball.
This series will be contested from Monday, June 12, 2017 through Wednesday, June 14, 2017 at Citi Field in New York. Wednesday's clash is being shown live on the MLB Network.
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Pitching Matchups
Typically, the Mets feel good with Jacob deGrom going to the mound. He is slated to get the start on Monday opposite of John Lackey.
While deGrom remains the Mets’ best starter overall, he’s struggling right now. In his last two starts he’s struggled to locate his pitches. He’s allowed 15 runs in eight innings, giving up 18 hits, four home runs and six walks. In those starts, he’s faced a good hitting Brewers’ team and a talented, yet inconsistent, Rangers team—like the Cubs in that regard.
Prior to those two bad outings, deGrom had a 3.23 ERA in 10 starts and a 4-1 record. The Mets are still 6-6 when he gets the ball, which is good considering how much they’ve struggled with another starter on the hill.
While deGrom would normally give the Mets a reasonably strong chance at a win, he’ll need to turn it around from his last two outings.
Lackey, meanwhile, hasn’t been too much better of late. He’s given up eight home runs in his last five games and goes against a Mets’ team with solid power.
He’s 0-3 in his last four starts, giving up 17 runs in 23 innings. He’s usually one to go after hitters, too, but has seen his walk total spike; though he didn’t walk a hitter in his last start.
In the second game of the series, the Cubs will turn to their stopper: Jon Lester. The Mets counter with Zack Wheeler who may be throwing the ball the best of any New York starter right now.
Even Lester is cold for the Cubs. He’s allowed 13 runs over his last two starts, spanning 14.1 innings. As you can see, he’s still giving Chicago depth, but quality hasn’t been there the last two times out.
Lester is just 3-4 on the year with a 4.13 ERA and 1.349 WHIP. None of those numbers are indicative of the southpaw’s ability, but all told, they’re still better than any other active starter for the Cubs right now.
Wheeler has the edge based on ERA. He’s pitching to a 3.45 ERA. His WHIP is high at 1.356, like Lester’s. Depth is an issue for Wheeler as he continues his comeback, but he can typically be counted on for six solid innings. He went seven in his last start, allowing just a run to the Rangers. He’s now delivered five quality starts in his last six, the lone exception being a five inning, two-run outing.
For the series finale, the Cubs haven’t made their starter public. Joe Maddon is toying with the idea of a six-man rotation which could mean Mike Montgomery goes into the rotation. He’ll likely get at least one start either way with Kyle Hendricks on the DL. He’s 0-3 with a 2.43 ERA out of the pen, but did well as the sixth start in an expanded rotation at times last year.
Whoever is the option, he’ll pitch opposite of Matt Harvey. Harvey was very good against the Braves in his last start, going five shutout innings. Is that a sign he’s back to form? Or just a lucky start against a bad team?
Mets fans will get a chance to see firsthand which isn’t a good thing for Harvey. He’s got a 6.11 ERA at home this year. He’s pitching to a 5.02 ERA, 1.462 WHIP and 5.83 FIP overall.
Injury Report
Yoenis Cespedes made his return to the Mets’ lineup on Saturday with a home run. It was his first game since April and New York is happy to see him back in the heart of the order.
Cespedes is a lynch pin for the Mets. He’s already hit seven homers in 19 games and has a 1.022 OPS. He also provides some protection for Michael Conforto who has seen his numbers slide a bit lately. Factor in a hot bat for Lucas Duda and the Mets now have some thump and threat to the order.
They also got back Seth Lugo and Steven Matz this past weekend. Neither will factor into the series with the Cubs other than to deepen the pitching staff. Those two could allow Gsellman to slide into the bullpen if needed as a long man.
Of course, Thor is still out and so is Jeurys Familia. Both are significant as the Mets’ bullpen may be the biggest weakness now that Lugo and Matz are back.
On the Cubs’ side of things, Hendricks and Brett Anderson are on the DL which shakes up the rotation. The rest of the team is healthy, just not producing.
While Russell’s issues are not injury related, they could keep him out of the order, but it would allow Ben Zobrist to play second, Javier Baez to slide to short and Albert Almora, Jon Jay or Ian Happ to get more at bats in the outfield. They’ve been as good as anyone on this team other than Bryant and Anthony Rizzo.
Betting Trends
Rizzo’s batting average is still down and his production has been okay, but not up to the form Cubs fans are used to seeing. He’s hitting the ball well the last week which is a good sign that Brizzo may be ready to lead the team on a run.
Rizzo is 10-for-24 heading into Sunday with three extra base hits in that time. Sure, Bryant’s struggled a little in the last week, but he still belted a pair of homers in that time.
Almora and Jay have hit well in the last week, too.
The Mets’ bullpen, on the flip side, have been horrible. Addison Reed has a couple saves over the last week, but otherwise, Josh Edgin may have had the next best inning of relivers, allowing a run and five hits in a couple innings.
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