The Cincinnati Reds currently sit atop the NL Central division while the Chicago Cubs have had a mediocre start to a season they were supposed to dominate. Of course, it’s still very early, but the Reds have been an excellent story to this point. They’ll get a real test over the weekend as they get set to hose the defending World Series Champion Cubs in a best of three set; a team that won 15 of the 19 meetings with the Reds last year.
This series will be contested from Friday, April 21, 2017 through Sunday, April 23, 2017 at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati. Friday night's showdown will be seen on WGN while a broadcast of both Friday’s and Saturday’s matchups can be seen on MLB Network in various markets.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Pitching Matchups
Jake Arrieta gets the ball on Friday night on the one-year anniversary of his no-hit performance against this same Reds team.
Arrieta’s been pretty good in his first three starts of the year, going 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.911 WHIP though he’s coming off a no-decision against the Pirates in a game the Cubs ultimately lost.
That last game wasn’t too great as he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings which was ultimately enough to keep the team in the game, but wasn’t what he wanted to do. In his first two starts, he went 13 combined innings, allowing three runs and striking out 16. He’ll be looking to get back to those types of numbers to help save the bullpen and getting into the seventh.
Arrieta has pitched well in his career against Cincinnati, but he’s had some troubles at Great American Ball Park. He’s 3-1 overall, but his ERA is 4.88 in the hitter’s haven.
With injuries to Brandon Finnegan, Rookie Davis and Sal Romano, the Reds are giving Tim Adleman the ball on Friday night. It’ll be his first start of the season after a four inning relief appearance against a pretty good hitting Brewers team where he allowed only one run.
Adleman is a career minor league journeyman who got his first taste of big league life last year with 13 starts. He was serviceable in those starts, pitching to a 4.00 ERA and 1.206 WHIP.
Despite the limited big league chances, this is a guy with pretty good minor league numbers in his career, particularly in the upper-levels with a 2.40 ERA at Triple-A and 2.71 ERA at Double-A.
Moving on to Saturday’s game, the Cubbies continue to have the upper-hand on the mound with Jon Lester matching up against another southpaw in Cody Reed.
Lester, of course, is the ace of this Chicago team—or at least one of them. He’s coming off a scoreless seven inning outing against the Pirates his last time out and has given up just two runs in 18 innings this season. Interestingly, despite those numbers, he’s yet to record his first victory of the year.
Against the Reds in his career, Lester is 3-1 with a 3.32 ERA, two of those wins coming last year. In five starts in Cincinnati, Lester’s ERA is below 3.
Much like Adelman, Reed is being pulled out of the bullpen to start against the Cubs. He’s already pitched in four games, giving the Reds eight scoreless frames while not allowing a hit; he has walked four.
The 24-year old lefty struggled through 10 starts last year, but seemed more comfortable in the pen to kick off this season. We’ll see if he can continue that success when facing the Chicago lineup a second and, potentially, third time through the order.
For Sunday’s series finale, the Cubs will turn to veteran right-hander John Lackey who will look to bounce back from a rough start against a Brewers’ team that touched him up for three home runs in a loss. The Reds, however, had his number last year as he had a 5.33 ERA against them in four starts.
The Reds haven’t announced their starter for Sunday though it could be Bronson Arroyo who would be working on normal rest.
The veteran’s stuff is not there. He’s topping out in the mid-80s and hasn’t be able to get the ball where he wants it early. No velocity and poor command is not a good combination. Arroyo looked better against an aggressive Orioles’ lineup on Tuesday, but they’re a team that can have trouble with the off speed stuff, the Cubs are not.
Who's Hot?
Anthony Rizzo is a perfect example why early season stats can be quite tricky and deceptive. The All-Star first baseman was hitting .160 through the first week, but is now batting .296 thanks to an eight game hitting streak where he’s gone 12-for-31 with his first home run and three doubles. The power will come around just as the hits have.
The power—though not quite as much—will also come for Jason Heyward who was terrible last year after signing his massive contract. He’s hitting .300 right now after remaking his swing and though all but one of his 15 hits have been singles, he’s putting good swings on the ball and looks like an entirely different hitter from last year.
The centerfield platoon of Jon Jay and Albert Almora—with Heyward sprinkled in—has produced, too. The team just needs Kris Bryant, Javier Baez and Addison Russell to turn the corner.
As for the Reds, Joey Votto is hitting only .235 and is a notorious slow starter, but he has shown early season power with four home runs. Meanwhile, Adam Duvall also has four jacks while Eugenio Suarez and Zack Cozart are seeing the ball very well, too, with a 1.145 and 1.200 OPS respectively.
Who's Not?
Outside of Wade Davis and Carl Edwards, the Cubs’ bullpen hasn’t been very good. Mike Montgomery already has two losses and hasn’t been crisp, with five walks in eight innings. Justin Grimm, Koji Uehara and Pedro Strop have been a bit wild which is really out of character for Uehara. Hector Rondon’s been pretty good, but he’s also gotten away with a few pitches that’ve missed their spots, but hitters weren’t able to take advantage.
We saw at the end of the postseason last year that Joe Maddon didn’t have enough confidence in his pen, defaulted to Aroldis Chapman too often. He has that luxury in a short series, but not over the course of a long season. Of course, Chapman is gone, but Wade Davis provides the same level of comfort.
Middle relief is a weakness for most teams and, so far, that’s even been true of the almighty Cubs.
For Cincinnati, with so much positive—particularly given their preseason prognostications—it’s hard to pick out a ‘not’ for the Reds, but Cincy’s rotation is dealing with injuries and their pen has been overworked as a result, but they’ve more or less held up to the strain.
The speedsters, however, can be classified as cold right now. Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza give the Reds an advantage on the base paths if they can reach. Both are burners with six steals each already, but Peraza has a .286 OBP and Hamilton a .288 OBP to date.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go.
Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
