The Colorado Rockies will host the Chicago Cubs and they’ll enter play with a better record than the defending World Series Champions. Let that sink in for a moment. Right now, the Rockies who struggle with arguably the biggest home/road variation in baseball and have long lacked the pitching to make any noise, have a better record than the team that was the preseason consensus to win it all. OF course, it’s still early and a lot can change, but this dynamic set us up for an interesting three game set in Colorado.
This series will be contested from Monday, May 8, 2017 through Wednesday, May 10, 2017 at Coors Field in Denver. The only nationally televised game in this three game set is Wednesday’s context which will be shown live on WGN.
Bet on MLB odds at BookMaker.eu every day of the season.
Pitching Matchups
The biggest storyline in the Rockies’ early season success has been the success of the starting pitching. We knew the offense was good and we knew there were some good names in the bullpen, but the rotation has certainly over performed and right at the forefront of that are Antonio Senzatela and Kyle Freeland who get the start on Monday and Tuesday respectively.
Interestingly, just as the Rockies’ starters have over performed expectations, the Cubs’ hurlers have underperformed. This was a team that was getting quality start after quality start one through five in the rotation last year, meanwhile, after ERAs of 3.10 and 3.35 last year, Jake Arrieta and John Lackey pitch the first two games of this series and each have an ERA near or above five.
The Rockies will close out the series sending German Marquez to the mound who will pitch opposite of the Cubs’ Kyle Hendricks.
These games will be played in Coors Field which takes its toll on pitchers, but Senzatela is 2-1 with a 3.15 ERA here in his first three home starts and Freeland has thrown one seven-inning scoreless start in Colorado and another giving up one run in six innings.
The two young arms haven’t let the thin air and hitter friendly environment impact their success. Senzatela overall is 4-1 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.026 WHIP in a team leading 38 innings while Freeland has gone 34 innings, going 3-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.324 WHIP. Neither have been big strikeout pitchers to date, but both have been able to successfully lean on their strong defense behind them while keeping the ball in the park. Amazingly, Freeland has given up just one home run in his six starts. Senzatela has given up a few more homers, but has walked just eight, making the opposition work its way on base.
The game three starter is the one that the Rockies need to worry about as Senzatela and Freeland are throwing the ball well and should keep Colorado in the first two games, even in Coors Field and against a strong Cubs’ lineup which hasn’t exactly clicked just yet.
Marquez is 0-2 with a 7.31 ERA and 1.688 WHIP in 16 innings in his three starts. He was called up out of necessity, but has been a good minor league pitcher for a few years now. Still, he’s allowed at least five runs in two of this three starts, though he can throw a good game as he did hold a very good Diamondbacks’ offense scoreless in six in the other start.
As for the Cubs’ pitchers, Arrieta is 4-1 on the young season, but his ERA is 4.63 while John Lackey already has three losses and a 5.14 ERA. Interestingly, Kyle Hendricks is the one throwing the ball the best right now.
He was the heart of concern after a few bad starts, but he’s come around, giving up just two earned runs over his last three starts, lasting 17.1 innings.
Meanwhile, both Arrieta and Lackey have been incredibly hittable, though they are striking out more than one batter per inning. Given their career norms, we can expect the opposing BABIP to drop, but Lackey is an emotional starter and can this early season struggle bleed through the first half even if the BABIP numbers begin to drop?
Who's Hot?
In general, most of the Cubs’ bats are underperforming lofty expectations. You have a wide list of hitters batting below .250, including Ben Zobrist, Willson Contreras, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber.
Even with all of that, the Cubs are scoring runs at a respectable pace, ranking No. 7 in runs scored in baseball. That’s pretty good, but it can be—and should be—much better.
Kris Bryant is hitting well. Heading into Sunday, he was hitting .311 with six homers and a .974 OPS. Albert Almora has also been a very good hitter in center. He’s not playing every day, but is hitting .283 when given a chance and has a .798 OPS. He and Jon Jay who is batting .346 make an excellent platoon.
With most of the starters underperforming and the middle relief being merely okay, Mike Montgomery is pitching well as the lefty out of the pen while Wade Davis and Carl Edwards Jr. have been shut down in the late innings.
For the Rockies, Mark Reynolds has been so good, he’s continuing to get playing time with Ian Desmond back in the fold. He’s already hit 10 home runs and has a 1.014 OPS. Interestingly, he, Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon are the only Rockies starters with an OPS+ north of 100 and each has been at least 24-percent better than the average player.
Who's Not?
The catching position for the Rockies falls into this category. With Tony Wolters now out, the Rockies have had to call up notoriously light-hitting Ryan Hanigan to go along with Dustin Garneau behind the plate.
Sure, Hanigan has had a couple good games at the dish since getting the call back to the bigs, but his career track record can show that cannot be expected to continue.
Speaking of something that cannot continue, Carlos Gonzalez is still hitting just .200 and his OPS is a measly .578. That’s terrible. It’ll get better, but it’s now been a month and a half and he’s still struggling at the dish.
Flipping over to the Cubs, Willson Contreras is hitting just .217 in his first full season in the majors. Kyle Schwarber is hitting just .193 after such hype in the World Series. He’s a professional hitter and possibly the best pure hitter in this lineup, but he’s not doing well in the leadoff spot and is showing some of the rust that we all expected in the World Series.
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go.
Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook!
